Trading with point and figure

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25733 the top
we marked 25700-25755 area

excellent results

 

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not a particularly important pivot

maybe it could become important

 

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Mornin folks

 

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Dow in rez
25765 first test

 

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Dow in rez
25765 first test

and a tad overbought

 

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a tad

 

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rez area goes up to 25950..ish

 

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GBP got some strength

 

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despite our 150 point dump yesterday

 

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the reaction point at 22/02 was a good place for swing trade
retraces into that supp area...look for buy signals
ya get a tight stop with that

 

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as we marked
index in rez

 

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25775

 

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Dow in rez
25765 first test

whacked

 

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dax...dump
excellent stuff

 

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cable 1.4000 area dump
excellent

 

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- Busy day for statistics kicks off with German/Spanish CPI and EC Confidence
surveys ahead of US Durable Goods, Trade Balance, Consumer Confidence,
House Prices and Wholesale Inventories as markets await Powell; ECB and
Riksbank speakers accompany end of month Italy BTP sales

- Germany CPI: seasonal bounce expected m/m, but y/y projected to dip

- US Durable Goods Orders: transport seen dragging on headline, some upside
risks on core measures

- US Goods Trade Balance: expected to be little changed at recent wide,
scope for some mean reversion after gapping wider in December

- US Consumer Confidence: seen edging back towards 17 year high, mirroring
better equities, lower gasoline prices and strong labour demand

..........................................................................

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************


A very busy day for US data ahead of Fed chair Powell's testimony tomorrow and month end, though ahead of that there are German and Spanish CPI, EC Confidence surveys along with Eurozone M3 and Private Sector Credit to digest. The US run features the advance Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders, FHFA & Case Shiller House Prices and Consumer Confidence, while tonight brings Indsutrial Production from South Korea and Japan, which also sees Retail Sales. On the events side of the equation, ECB's Mersch & Weidmann and Riksbank's af Jochnick & Ohlson top the run of central bank speakers, with the Canadian Budget also due. Italy holds its month end BTP/BTPei auctions and corporate earnings will also be plentiful. That said, all eyes are firmly on Powell's testimony tomorrow, and as such there will need to be some surprises in today's run to have a major impact onj markets, particularly given month end influences and flows.

** Germany - February CPI **
- A saeasonally typical rebound of 0.5% in m/m terms is expected, which would see the y/y rate dip to 1.5% from 1.6% in national CPI terms, and the HICP measure dip to a still subdued 1.3%, with the first, but not always reliable pointer from Saxony at 0.4% m/m implying some downside risks. The read across from Spain is never a good one, but a higher than expected 0.1% m/m that jumped the HICP y/y rate to 1.2% from January's 0.7% does hint at some upside risks for tomorrow's Eurozone HICP. Be that as it may, the absolute levels for both headline and core CPI in the Eurozone are still some distance from satisfying the ECB's objective of getting inflation back to just below 2.0%, above all in core terms.

** U.S.A. - Durable Goods Orders, Goods Trade Balance & Consumer Confidence **
- December's Orders data painted a very mixed picture, with a transport (aircraft) related booost to headline (2.8% m/m), offset by a soft Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (-0.5% m/m), though the latter followed considerable strength throughout H2 2017, as well as running counter to very strong Orders indices (e.g. ISM Manufacturing Orders at a 14-yr high of 67.4). The January data should see roles reversed, with Transport dragging on the headline, for which a 2.0% m/m drop is expected, while core measures may well beat expectations of 0.4% m/m ex-Transport and 0.5% m/m for Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft, given that survey measures continue to signal a very robust level ofd demand. The advance Goods Trade Balance is seen unchanged at $-72.3 Bln, the widest deficit since 2008, and the consensus looks to be predicated on a seasonal tendency for the deficit to widen in January, though this generally follows a narrowing in December, as such there is perhaps some scope for a modest narrowing, though this will still leave the deficit at much wider levels than those that prevailed in 2016 and for much of 2017. Consumer Confidence is forecast to edge back up to 126.5 after dipping to 125.4 in January, following a 17-yr high of 128.6 in November. This looks to be a fair assumption given that laboru demand remains very robust, gasoline prices have dipped over the past month and equities have stabilized, with the only major negative being the steady, though gentle rise in Mortgage Rates. As ever the Labour Differential (Jobs Plentiful minus Hard to Get) will be watched for clues on next week's labour report, having reached its best level at 21.5 since July 2001 last month.

from Marc Ostwald

 

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gbp lookin a tad weak

 

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index
excellent results so far on our tad bearish bias

 

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dax plummet....even bettter

 

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gbp got bought....finally