Trading with point and figure

dentist007 said:
ok

just finishin my tea and biscuits
Click to expand...


its messy



14jreyu.png
 
Central bank speakers dominate schedule on modest day for statistics,
digesting Japan CPI, awaiting German GDP details and Canada CPI

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Perhaps appropriately, the week ends with a deluge of central bank speakers, and a rather light data calendar. The February Riksbank minutes kick off proceedings (though the weak CPI data may have pushed back against the hint about an H2 rate hike). There follows BoE's Ramsden (dove), outgoing NY Fed chief Dudley talking about the Fed's balance sheet, the resolutely hawkish Cleveland Fed chief Mester, ECB's ever thoughtful Coeure and is rounded off with the currently relatively hawkish SF Fed's Williams (who is in the frame for the post of Fed Vice Chairman). Statistically, there are the Japanese CPI to digest and the detailed breakdown on German Q4 GDP, which will be of largely academic interest, and the final readings on Eurozone January CPI & Mexican GDP, with Canadian CPI being the afternoon's only highlight. In respect of Japanese CPI, it is worth noting that while there have been the much discussed upward shift in govt bond yields in the US, Eurozone and to a lesser extent the UK, long-dated JGB yields (effectively the only real 'market' in JGBs given the BoJ's YCC policy) are at 8 month lows, perhaps an indication where the run of Japanese selling of foreign bonds has been switched into, even if the motivation theretofore looks to be something of a mystery, outside of escaping volatility internationally. But as the array of attached charts suggests, whether this is a case of being stung by the rally in the JPY or related to domestic year end at the end of March, some of that money should return back to foreign bonds at the very latest in the new financial year. While the corporate earnings run is not numerically large, it does see a run of heavyweight financials reporting: RBS, Standard Life Aberdeen, Swiss Re and RBC. Following on from Canada's much weaker than expected Retail, primarily a function of a deeply flawed seasonal adjustment process, today brings the rather more reliable CPI data, on which base effects will have a profound impact, with the expected 0.5% m/m rise implying sharp reversal in the y/y rate down to 1.5% from December's 1.9%, though the "Common core" measure is seen edging modestly higher to 1.7% y/y from 1.6%; anything higher than expected will likely have markets raising the probability of an April BoC rate hike, though views on an April move will likely remain very fluid.
from Marc Ostwald
 
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