Trading with point and figure

Dow

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Morning all...anyone?

EG chart still bearish but support zone still resilient so taken a small long at .8773 - € index stable to bullish on 4H - 20 pips target:rolleyes:
 

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- Eurozone leaders dominate Davos WEF speaker schedule on busier day for
statistics; Japan Trade to be digested, awaiting flash Eurozone/US PMIs,
UK labour data and US Existing Home Sales; more US corporate earnings
and US 5-yr / FRN 2-yr

- PMIs: expected to be little changed at robust levels, risks to upside
for Eurozone

- UK labour data: all eyes on expected no change in Average Weekly Earnings,
some attention also needs to be given to Employment following recent dip

- Charts: Charts: ZAR/USD, UK CPI vs Avg Weekly Earnings, UK Employment
and various metals

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

For the first time in roughly a fortnight, the day's data schedule has the upper hand over a rather meagre events schedule, within which the EIA's monthly Oil Market Report and the ongoing Davos shindig are about the only items of note. The latter sees Macron, Merkel, Italy PM Gentiloni and Brazil President Temer among the notable speakers. That said the statistical schedule is hardly choc full of first division data, with pride of place going to UK wages and employment, which are accompanied by G7 flash PMIs, US Existing Home Sales and South Africa's CPI. Earnings reports remain plentiful with Novartis on tap in Europe ahead of Ford, General Dynamics, GE, United Technologies and Xilinx, amongst others in the USA. The US also tops the govt bond auction schedule with $34 Bln of 5-yr and a 2-yr Treasury FRN. Forecasts for the array of PMIs in the Eurozone and the US look for robust readings, though little changed from December, though the risks (as with yesterday's ZEW) tend to suggest upside risks for the Euro area, despite already elevated levels by any historical standards. As previously observed, the Markit PMIs for the USA have notably underperformed equivalent ISM measures, with the latter far more in tune with the buoyant pace of growth in H2 2017, which is expected to be confirmed in Friday's advance reading on Q4 GDP. The EIA oil inventories data are also on tap, and follow an unexpected 4.8 Mln rise in the API measure against an anticipated 1.6 Mln fall, and marking the first rise in crude stocks in 10 weeks.


** U.K. - Nov/Dec labour market indicators **
- All eyes will more than likely be on the Average Weekly Earnings in today's data, with projections looking for no change on headline or ex-Bonus at 2.5% y/y and 2.3% y/y respectively, which would leave real wages still ploughing a negative furrow, as they have done for more than half of the decade since the global financial crisis (see chart). But some attention also needs to be given to the FLS Employment measure, which has turned modestly negative of late with 12K drop expected after -56K and -14K in prior reports. It would be premature to take this as a signal that labour demand has turned negative, as dips seen in 2015 and 2011 attest (see chart), though there is the threat of layoffs as a result of the Carillion collapse showing up in coming months.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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