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Moved stop up to lock in some profit
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Moved stop up to lock in some profit
Moneylender
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Stopped out with a dozen
Moneylender
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Back in @ 438
Moneylender
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Bit cheeky this one, will get out quick if it goes against me
Moneylender
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Closed it, small loss
Moneylender
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13420 is trend support then 13390 horizontal support, let's see
Dentalfloss
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- Politics rules the roost as scheduled data and non-political events
offers little in the way of inspiration; US govt shutdown, German
coalition talks, Greece bail-out review and ANC moves to oust Zuma
- Germany: narrow approval of coalition negotiations underlines risk
of failure remains
- US govt shutdown: further vote scheduled, but few signs of any
narrowing of differences
- Week Ahead: UK/US Q4 GDP, Japan CPI, surveys accompany BoJ and ECB
meetings, raft of US earnings and UK retailers Christmas sales reports
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's schedule of data and non-political events looks to have a paucity of obvious market moving events, and as such, the focus will be on the political themes du jour, namely the US govt shutdown and the move to formal German grand coalition negotiations, the Eurogroup meeting on Greece's bail-out review, the ANC moves to force Zuma to stand down as President, and for oil markets the tentative 'forward guidance' from Saudi on future of the OPEC/Non-OPEC production cap agreement following the weekend Russia/OPEC meeting. In terms of the German SPD congress' approval of formal coalition talks, while the result was positive, it was nevertheless rather too close to suggest that a govt can be formed by Ash Wednesday, as was suggested prior to the weekend, and it is certainly far from a foregone conclusion that a govt will be formed. In respect of the US govt shutdown, another Senate vote has been scheduled for midday, though all the signals from the GOP and Democrat camps suggests there has been no material bridging of the chasm of differences that stand between the two sides, and a more protracted shutdown still appears to be the most likely outcome.
As noted below this is a busy week for US Q4 corporate earnings, with the focus on the winners and losers from the tax reform bill. It will also be another busy week for UK Retailers providing updates on Christmas sales performance, which outside of the supermarkets, has generally been disappointing. There is however a broader context, which seems to be much under-discussed, namely what the huge equity price movements in reaction tell us, which have been as much as 55%. It is certainly indicative of very poor market liquidity conditions post GFC, and the argument that these reactions are far worse in supposedly less liquid smaller cap stocks does not wash, when for instance one considers the AstraZeneca rollercoaster last year. More importantly they are indicative of many stocks, above all in sectors which should have a naturally elevated risk premium, such as the beleaguered bricks and mortar retailers, actually having no risk premium, indeed suggesting that risk premia are in principle binary. The latter in turn is reminder that many stocks (and much corporate credit of whatever grade) are overvalued, due to the pressure of fund inflows as a function of this very protracted period of financial repression, and the latter forces a rather scattergun approach by some funds to allocation; with fear of concentration risk, if a more circumspect approach is taken, being a further factor. As a background constellation, this inevitably bodes poorly in the longer, particularly once central bank unconventional flows turn negative.
RECAP - The Week Ahead Preview (updated): 22 to 26 January 2018
- The week ahead has a good number of important data points, along with ECB and BoJ meetings and a busier run of corporate earnings (above all in the US), but the question is whether this ends up being ridden roughshod over by political developments. Be that another edition of a US debt ceiling and govt spending debacle, or perhaps Trump scrapping NAFTA or launching a trade offensive against China when he speaks at Davos, or the risk that Germany still finds itself without a government, despite that SPD congress vote at the weekend.
- Statistically, preliminary readings for UK and US Q4 GDP accompany UK labour market and wages, Japanese and Canadian CPI, Japan Trade, US Durable Goods, flash PMIs and a raft of other confidence surveys (including Germany's Ifo) are likely to provide the headlines. Interestingly perhaps, the consensus estimates for both UK Q4 GDP (0.4% q/q 1.4% y/y) and the US measure (2.9% SAAR) fall short of other gauges. For example in the UK, the NIESR last week suggested 0.6% q/q, while in the US the regional Fed GDP NowCast measures currently stand as follows - St Louis 3.1%, Atlanta 3.4% and NY 3.8%. In the UK much will depend on the Index of Services (forecast 0.4%), with a solid contribution expected from Manufacturing, while the not necessarily reliable Retail Sales (0.4% q/q) point to a sluggish contribution. By contrast US Q4 Personal Consumption is (rather unsurprisingly) forecast to post a very solid 3.7% rise, with Net Exports likely to have been a key drag (but how much depending on Thursday's Dec Advance Goods Trade Balance), though likely to have been offset by solid Business and Residential Investment. Japanese Trade data are projected to show a solid 9.8% y/y though slower rise in Exports, while National and Tokyo headline CPI is forecast to rise to 1.1% y/y, the best level since the Sales Tax hike, though the ex-Food & Energy are seem remaining subdued at 0.4%. While all eyes will probably be on the Average Weekly Earnings in the UK labour market data, with projections looking for no change on headline or ex-Bonus at 2.5% y/y and 2.3% y/y respectively, but.... some attention needs to be given to Employment, which has turned modestly negative of late with 10K drop seen after -56K and -14K in prior reports. Forecasts for the array of surveys around Europe and the US look for robust readings, though little changed from December.
- Central banks - the Bank of Japan and the ECB meet this week. Both have been at great pains to signal ahead of those meetings that there will be no policy changes or signals. Markets are rightly somewhat sceptical that the BoJ will maintain its QQE at the current pace for a very protracted period, as reaction to the modest volume adjustment to its long-dated JGB purchases highlighted. The BoJ appears to be struggling to formulate a plan of how to enter a QQE taper, and how to give adequate advance signals of this to financial markets, and eminently wary of sparking a jarring JPY short-covering rally. ECB sources, in their first outing for 2018, made it clear that the council will want sight of a fresh set of staff forecasts before it confirms an end date for its QE programme. Ironically, after a period in which the council appeared to take view that any EUR strength would be neutralized by rising energy prices, and thus made little reference to the Euro, both outgoing vice president Constancio and OeNB president Nowotny (both dovishly biased) recently observed that a rising Euro could prove to be a stumbling block to getting inflation back to target. The FOMC will be in 'purdah' ahead of its 29/30 January meeting, while BoJ's Kuroda, BOE's Carney & IMF's Lagarde present a "2018 global economic outlook" at Davos. Elsewhere, Ghana's central bank is seen cutting rates 50 bps to 19.50%, Malaysia BNM is expected to implement its first rate hike (+25 bps to 3.25%) since June 2014, while rates are seen unchanged in Georgia, Kenya, Nigeria and the Ukraine. The IMF will also publish its latest World Economic Outlook Update just ahead of the Davos WEF.
- As noted above, politics will continue to have a considerable, with the supposedly 'great and the good' assembling in Davos this week, with Macron, May, Merkel and Trump all scheduled to speak, even is only May and Trump are scheduled to meet, and will certainly signal very divergent views of the world. NAFTA talks will also continue. It will also be a potentially important week in terms of Brazil's presidential elections, which will see the Court of Appeals decide on whether to confirm or quash former president Lula's conviction for corruption.
- Government bond sales: the US tops the schedule with $88 Bln of 2, 5 & 7-yr Treasury notes and $15 Bln of 2-yr Treasury FRN, though the key point of interest (assuming some deal is made on the debt ceiling) will be the end of month quarterly refunding estimate, which is expected to see a jump in auction sizes, above all to pay for the tax reform bill. Elsewhere, Germany re-opens its current 2-yr, Italy will detail the size and maturity of next Friday's CTZ and inflation-linked BTP auctions on Tuesday, the UK offers a further £1.0 Bln of its 2026 I-L Gilt, while Japan sells JPY 1.0 Trln of 20-yr JGBs. Corporate issuance requires attention, with US IG Credit issuance already having topped the $100 Bln mark month to date, and many US corporates often bringing new issues very soon after reporting quarterly results.
- The pace of US Q4 Corporate Earnings picks up speed again this week, and sees a greater variety of non-financials on the schedule. Potential headline grabbers look to be Netflix (Monday), Johnson & Johnson, Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble and Verizon (Tuesday); Ford, GE & Whirlpool (Wednesday); 3M, Caterpillar, Freeport-McMoRan, Intel, Raytheon & Starbucks (Thursday); and Colgate-Palmolive on Friday. A busier week in Europe has the likes of UBS, Novartis, Fiat Chrysler, Kone, LVMH and Sky scheduled to report.
- In the commodity space, the EIA rounds off the round of monthly Oil Market reports, and follows the weekend meeting between OPEC and Russia to view the oil production pact.
from marc Ostwald
offers little in the way of inspiration; US govt shutdown, German
coalition talks, Greece bail-out review and ANC moves to oust Zuma
- Germany: narrow approval of coalition negotiations underlines risk
of failure remains
- US govt shutdown: further vote scheduled, but few signs of any
narrowing of differences
- Week Ahead: UK/US Q4 GDP, Japan CPI, surveys accompany BoJ and ECB
meetings, raft of US earnings and UK retailers Christmas sales reports
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's schedule of data and non-political events looks to have a paucity of obvious market moving events, and as such, the focus will be on the political themes du jour, namely the US govt shutdown and the move to formal German grand coalition negotiations, the Eurogroup meeting on Greece's bail-out review, the ANC moves to force Zuma to stand down as President, and for oil markets the tentative 'forward guidance' from Saudi on future of the OPEC/Non-OPEC production cap agreement following the weekend Russia/OPEC meeting. In terms of the German SPD congress' approval of formal coalition talks, while the result was positive, it was nevertheless rather too close to suggest that a govt can be formed by Ash Wednesday, as was suggested prior to the weekend, and it is certainly far from a foregone conclusion that a govt will be formed. In respect of the US govt shutdown, another Senate vote has been scheduled for midday, though all the signals from the GOP and Democrat camps suggests there has been no material bridging of the chasm of differences that stand between the two sides, and a more protracted shutdown still appears to be the most likely outcome.
As noted below this is a busy week for US Q4 corporate earnings, with the focus on the winners and losers from the tax reform bill. It will also be another busy week for UK Retailers providing updates on Christmas sales performance, which outside of the supermarkets, has generally been disappointing. There is however a broader context, which seems to be much under-discussed, namely what the huge equity price movements in reaction tell us, which have been as much as 55%. It is certainly indicative of very poor market liquidity conditions post GFC, and the argument that these reactions are far worse in supposedly less liquid smaller cap stocks does not wash, when for instance one considers the AstraZeneca rollercoaster last year. More importantly they are indicative of many stocks, above all in sectors which should have a naturally elevated risk premium, such as the beleaguered bricks and mortar retailers, actually having no risk premium, indeed suggesting that risk premia are in principle binary. The latter in turn is reminder that many stocks (and much corporate credit of whatever grade) are overvalued, due to the pressure of fund inflows as a function of this very protracted period of financial repression, and the latter forces a rather scattergun approach by some funds to allocation; with fear of concentration risk, if a more circumspect approach is taken, being a further factor. As a background constellation, this inevitably bodes poorly in the longer, particularly once central bank unconventional flows turn negative.
RECAP - The Week Ahead Preview (updated): 22 to 26 January 2018
- The week ahead has a good number of important data points, along with ECB and BoJ meetings and a busier run of corporate earnings (above all in the US), but the question is whether this ends up being ridden roughshod over by political developments. Be that another edition of a US debt ceiling and govt spending debacle, or perhaps Trump scrapping NAFTA or launching a trade offensive against China when he speaks at Davos, or the risk that Germany still finds itself without a government, despite that SPD congress vote at the weekend.
- Statistically, preliminary readings for UK and US Q4 GDP accompany UK labour market and wages, Japanese and Canadian CPI, Japan Trade, US Durable Goods, flash PMIs and a raft of other confidence surveys (including Germany's Ifo) are likely to provide the headlines. Interestingly perhaps, the consensus estimates for both UK Q4 GDP (0.4% q/q 1.4% y/y) and the US measure (2.9% SAAR) fall short of other gauges. For example in the UK, the NIESR last week suggested 0.6% q/q, while in the US the regional Fed GDP NowCast measures currently stand as follows - St Louis 3.1%, Atlanta 3.4% and NY 3.8%. In the UK much will depend on the Index of Services (forecast 0.4%), with a solid contribution expected from Manufacturing, while the not necessarily reliable Retail Sales (0.4% q/q) point to a sluggish contribution. By contrast US Q4 Personal Consumption is (rather unsurprisingly) forecast to post a very solid 3.7% rise, with Net Exports likely to have been a key drag (but how much depending on Thursday's Dec Advance Goods Trade Balance), though likely to have been offset by solid Business and Residential Investment. Japanese Trade data are projected to show a solid 9.8% y/y though slower rise in Exports, while National and Tokyo headline CPI is forecast to rise to 1.1% y/y, the best level since the Sales Tax hike, though the ex-Food & Energy are seem remaining subdued at 0.4%. While all eyes will probably be on the Average Weekly Earnings in the UK labour market data, with projections looking for no change on headline or ex-Bonus at 2.5% y/y and 2.3% y/y respectively, but.... some attention needs to be given to Employment, which has turned modestly negative of late with 10K drop seen after -56K and -14K in prior reports. Forecasts for the array of surveys around Europe and the US look for robust readings, though little changed from December.
- Central banks - the Bank of Japan and the ECB meet this week. Both have been at great pains to signal ahead of those meetings that there will be no policy changes or signals. Markets are rightly somewhat sceptical that the BoJ will maintain its QQE at the current pace for a very protracted period, as reaction to the modest volume adjustment to its long-dated JGB purchases highlighted. The BoJ appears to be struggling to formulate a plan of how to enter a QQE taper, and how to give adequate advance signals of this to financial markets, and eminently wary of sparking a jarring JPY short-covering rally. ECB sources, in their first outing for 2018, made it clear that the council will want sight of a fresh set of staff forecasts before it confirms an end date for its QE programme. Ironically, after a period in which the council appeared to take view that any EUR strength would be neutralized by rising energy prices, and thus made little reference to the Euro, both outgoing vice president Constancio and OeNB president Nowotny (both dovishly biased) recently observed that a rising Euro could prove to be a stumbling block to getting inflation back to target. The FOMC will be in 'purdah' ahead of its 29/30 January meeting, while BoJ's Kuroda, BOE's Carney & IMF's Lagarde present a "2018 global economic outlook" at Davos. Elsewhere, Ghana's central bank is seen cutting rates 50 bps to 19.50%, Malaysia BNM is expected to implement its first rate hike (+25 bps to 3.25%) since June 2014, while rates are seen unchanged in Georgia, Kenya, Nigeria and the Ukraine. The IMF will also publish its latest World Economic Outlook Update just ahead of the Davos WEF.
- As noted above, politics will continue to have a considerable, with the supposedly 'great and the good' assembling in Davos this week, with Macron, May, Merkel and Trump all scheduled to speak, even is only May and Trump are scheduled to meet, and will certainly signal very divergent views of the world. NAFTA talks will also continue. It will also be a potentially important week in terms of Brazil's presidential elections, which will see the Court of Appeals decide on whether to confirm or quash former president Lula's conviction for corruption.
- Government bond sales: the US tops the schedule with $88 Bln of 2, 5 & 7-yr Treasury notes and $15 Bln of 2-yr Treasury FRN, though the key point of interest (assuming some deal is made on the debt ceiling) will be the end of month quarterly refunding estimate, which is expected to see a jump in auction sizes, above all to pay for the tax reform bill. Elsewhere, Germany re-opens its current 2-yr, Italy will detail the size and maturity of next Friday's CTZ and inflation-linked BTP auctions on Tuesday, the UK offers a further £1.0 Bln of its 2026 I-L Gilt, while Japan sells JPY 1.0 Trln of 20-yr JGBs. Corporate issuance requires attention, with US IG Credit issuance already having topped the $100 Bln mark month to date, and many US corporates often bringing new issues very soon after reporting quarterly results.
- The pace of US Q4 Corporate Earnings picks up speed again this week, and sees a greater variety of non-financials on the schedule. Potential headline grabbers look to be Netflix (Monday), Johnson & Johnson, Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble and Verizon (Tuesday); Ford, GE & Whirlpool (Wednesday); 3M, Caterpillar, Freeport-McMoRan, Intel, Raytheon & Starbucks (Thursday); and Colgate-Palmolive on Friday. A busier week in Europe has the likes of UBS, Novartis, Fiat Chrysler, Kone, LVMH and Sky scheduled to report.
- In the commodity space, the EIA rounds off the round of monthly Oil Market reports, and follows the weekend meeting between OPEC and Russia to view the oil production pact.
from marc Ostwald
C
cantagril
Moneylender
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Nice bounce off 13420, stop set plus 1
Dentalfloss
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Dax
raw chart
raw chart
Moneylender
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13435 is resistance.
Moneylender
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Closed at 33
Moneylender
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Want this below 13390 to have real confidence in holding shorts
Dentalfloss
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add a couple of lines
Dentalfloss
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hope so
Moneylender
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Closed it too early, but bird in the hand, etc!
Dentalfloss
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dow
potential pullback
potential pullback
Moneylender
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13445 then 50 are next resistance for those still long
Moneylender
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13445 held and down it went.
Moneylender
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Back to support @ 13320
