Dentalfloss
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13260 for a p/d on the cards
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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ML 13225 looks to be supporting
Dentalfloss
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its 13250 actually
Moneylender
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Morning all, bit late but here most of the day today.
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Moneylender
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Moneylender
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Not sure which is the safer option, short the spikes or buy the dips?
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Moneylender
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My chart from yesterday morning still has all relevent levels. Will update after my cuppa.
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Dentalfloss
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- Digesting China GDP and monthly data, Australian jobs and UK RICS House
Price survey; awaiting US Housing Starts, Philly Fed and jobless claims;
BI, TCMB and SARB all expected to mirror no change from BoK; US earnings
and bond auctions in France, Spain, UK and USA; OPEC oil market report
- US Housing Starts: modest setback expected after hurricane reconstruction
related surge, but latter factor to keep pace buoyant
- China Q4 GDP confirms expected modest loss of momentum; Private FAI
pick-up offers some offset to Retail Sales miss
- Australia labour data: continued strong employment growth, but labour
force growth suggest wage rises likely to remain modest
- Charts: China FAI vs GDP; USD Index and US 10-yr yield
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The data and events schedule is quite busy today, though expectations for much of the data and indeed the day's run of central bank meetings, suggests it may all prove to be rather 'low impact' in terms of market reaction. The run of China's Q4 GDP and monthly activity reports tops the statistical schedule, with Australia's labour data and the UK RICS House Price survey also to be digested, while the US has Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing survey and weekly jobless claims. Central banks in Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey are all expected to follow the Bank of Korea in keeping policy rates on hold, though latter two are likely to mirror the BoK in confirming that they have a tightening bias. There are multi-maturity govt bond auctions in Spain and France, while the UK sells 5-yr conventionals, and the US debuts the new 10-yr TIPS benchmark. On the US corporate earnings front, Amex, BoNY Mellon, IBM and Morgan Stanley will likely be the ones to watch. As far as Turkey's TCMB goes, the TRY's rally from its weakest levels vs USD has petered out, and always looked rather half-hearted. The latter is unsurprising given the dead weight of political pressures, CPI remaining sky high at 11.92% y/y notwithstanding the drop from November's 12.98%, and real rates very low, particularly the Repo Rate at 8.0%, and even the Late Lending Rate at 12.25%.
Of the overnight run of data, Australia once again posted a better than expected rise in Employment, though the rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.5% (vs 5.4%) underlines that 'discouraged workers' appear to be returning to the labour market, which is likely to keep a lid on already subdued wage growth, and by extension see the RBA keep rates on hold for a protracted period. The better than expected UK RICS House Price Balance (+8 vs. forecast 0) offers a glimmer of hope for the housing market, though prices in London continue to drop (though at a slower pace according to the survey) and thus underline that the re-compression of price differences between London/SE and the rest of the country continues, and will likely continue for a protracted period, given the prior outperformance was always going to have see some substantial reversal, above all due to major affordability issues.
As for China's GDP and monthly statistics, the better than expected Q4 GDP owes everything to 0.1 ppt upward revisions to Q2 and Q3, with the resulting Q2 to Q4 progression of 1.9%, 1.8% to the last quarter's 1.6% confirming much anticipated slowdown, and the likelihood of a further loss of momentum going into 2018. Eminently with multiple reports of cities and regions inflating and now revising down their local GDP data, this will have many questioning the veracity of today's data - for a discussion about the reasons for this bout of statistical 'truth and reconciliation', see this SCMP article "Why Chinese officials are suddenly coming clean over cooking the books" - http://www.scmp.com/news/china/econ...cials-are-suddenly-coming-clean-over-cooking? . In respect of the monthly data, a large miss on Retail Sales (9.4% vs. f'cast 10.1%) may owe something to a reactive correction after the (rather modest) boost to November from 'Singles Day', with Industrial Production just beating expectations at 6.2% y/y. Fixed Asset Investment was slightly better than expected at 7.2%, with the more encouraging aspect being a bounce in Private FAI to 6.0% from 5.7%, breaking a run of lower readings since June 2017, but in no small part due to base effects in Petroleum, & NatGas FAI (Dec -13.7% vs. Nov -19.4%). But for many this may all prove to be rather moot, with the focus on how the authorities' clampdown on leverage and credit, as well as pollution controls will impact growth in 2018. On balance the observation is that 2017's moves to curb overcapacity in many sectors did not have the sort of negative impact that many had anticipated, and it is likely that the authorities will exercise a good deal of caution in the current about of curbs, knowing full well that the complex web of WMP investments is heavily intertwined with Corporate and Household Credit cannot just be unwound, without potentially setting off a chain reaction.
from Marc Ostwald
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
Price survey; awaiting US Housing Starts, Philly Fed and jobless claims;
BI, TCMB and SARB all expected to mirror no change from BoK; US earnings
and bond auctions in France, Spain, UK and USA; OPEC oil market report
- US Housing Starts: modest setback expected after hurricane reconstruction
related surge, but latter factor to keep pace buoyant
- China Q4 GDP confirms expected modest loss of momentum; Private FAI
pick-up offers some offset to Retail Sales miss
- Australia labour data: continued strong employment growth, but labour
force growth suggest wage rises likely to remain modest
- Charts: China FAI vs GDP; USD Index and US 10-yr yield
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The data and events schedule is quite busy today, though expectations for much of the data and indeed the day's run of central bank meetings, suggests it may all prove to be rather 'low impact' in terms of market reaction. The run of China's Q4 GDP and monthly activity reports tops the statistical schedule, with Australia's labour data and the UK RICS House Price survey also to be digested, while the US has Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing survey and weekly jobless claims. Central banks in Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey are all expected to follow the Bank of Korea in keeping policy rates on hold, though latter two are likely to mirror the BoK in confirming that they have a tightening bias. There are multi-maturity govt bond auctions in Spain and France, while the UK sells 5-yr conventionals, and the US debuts the new 10-yr TIPS benchmark. On the US corporate earnings front, Amex, BoNY Mellon, IBM and Morgan Stanley will likely be the ones to watch. As far as Turkey's TCMB goes, the TRY's rally from its weakest levels vs USD has petered out, and always looked rather half-hearted. The latter is unsurprising given the dead weight of political pressures, CPI remaining sky high at 11.92% y/y notwithstanding the drop from November's 12.98%, and real rates very low, particularly the Repo Rate at 8.0%, and even the Late Lending Rate at 12.25%.
Of the overnight run of data, Australia once again posted a better than expected rise in Employment, though the rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.5% (vs 5.4%) underlines that 'discouraged workers' appear to be returning to the labour market, which is likely to keep a lid on already subdued wage growth, and by extension see the RBA keep rates on hold for a protracted period. The better than expected UK RICS House Price Balance (+8 vs. forecast 0) offers a glimmer of hope for the housing market, though prices in London continue to drop (though at a slower pace according to the survey) and thus underline that the re-compression of price differences between London/SE and the rest of the country continues, and will likely continue for a protracted period, given the prior outperformance was always going to have see some substantial reversal, above all due to major affordability issues.
As for China's GDP and monthly statistics, the better than expected Q4 GDP owes everything to 0.1 ppt upward revisions to Q2 and Q3, with the resulting Q2 to Q4 progression of 1.9%, 1.8% to the last quarter's 1.6% confirming much anticipated slowdown, and the likelihood of a further loss of momentum going into 2018. Eminently with multiple reports of cities and regions inflating and now revising down their local GDP data, this will have many questioning the veracity of today's data - for a discussion about the reasons for this bout of statistical 'truth and reconciliation', see this SCMP article "Why Chinese officials are suddenly coming clean over cooking the books" - http://www.scmp.com/news/china/econ...cials-are-suddenly-coming-clean-over-cooking? . In respect of the monthly data, a large miss on Retail Sales (9.4% vs. f'cast 10.1%) may owe something to a reactive correction after the (rather modest) boost to November from 'Singles Day', with Industrial Production just beating expectations at 6.2% y/y. Fixed Asset Investment was slightly better than expected at 7.2%, with the more encouraging aspect being a bounce in Private FAI to 6.0% from 5.7%, breaking a run of lower readings since June 2017, but in no small part due to base effects in Petroleum, & NatGas FAI (Dec -13.7% vs. Nov -19.4%). But for many this may all prove to be rather moot, with the focus on how the authorities' clampdown on leverage and credit, as well as pollution controls will impact growth in 2018. On balance the observation is that 2017's moves to curb overcapacity in many sectors did not have the sort of negative impact that many had anticipated, and it is likely that the authorities will exercise a good deal of caution in the current about of curbs, knowing full well that the complex web of WMP investments is heavily intertwined with Corporate and Household Credit cannot just be unwound, without potentially setting off a chain reaction.
from Marc Ostwald
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
Dentalfloss
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ah yes.........
but
the volatility will have changed....so you must not get lazy
finish the cuppa and get back to work....lol
Dentalfloss
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all about that pivot
Dentalfloss
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OY...this is supposed to be a pnf thread........I want my subs refunded
Dentalfloss
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NO REFUNDS...lol
our methodology is pnf based
if yu get the information from a bar chart.....then fine
Dentalfloss
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c
chart reading....put on a few lines and you have a feel of what is going on
chart reading....put on a few lines and you have a feel of what is going on
Dentalfloss
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can you see it...??
an upmoveinto pivot rez
a pullback into supp area
will bulls come in..?
or do we go lower..??
an upmoveinto pivot rez
a pullback into supp area
will bulls come in..?
or do we go lower..??
Dentalfloss
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no real sign of supp yet
but
range has constricted
13220 upside break or 13200 below
but
range has constricted
13220 upside break or 13200 below
Moneylender
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Inzieman, here you go, as instructed by 007!
Moneylender
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I would prefer an upside break but its looking more like a downside one to me.
Waiting!
In fact going back to bed.
Waiting!
In fact going back to bed.
Dentalfloss
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supp came in at 13200
