C
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
mornin folks
Moneylender
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,693
- Likes
- 369
Moneylender
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,693
- Likes
- 369
Got the drop down from 13300 but closed too early @ 13275.
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
pivot areas marked
upper horizontal 25314 area
lower 25250...coincides with trend supp
updated
pivot tested and bounce
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
yesterday....a visit to our trendline/red....and bounce
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
cable...gonna pop
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
oil....lining up
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
not too bad...lunchtime gives you time to recover for the next day
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
got the dow and dax moves from our trendline yesterday aswell
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dow....lining up for a pump or dump
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
eurusd
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
carry trade in a bit of trouble
110..00 mega pivot looming
a bad bounce off that >..?? gives 107.50 horizontal supp
#
not good for stocks
110..00 mega pivot looming
a bad bounce off that >..?? gives 107.50 horizontal supp
#
not good for stocks
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Kiwi
can it go on..??
can it go on..??
C
cantagril
Kiwi
can it go on..??
Umm, last time I looked the Kiwi was NZD...
Try another alka-seltzer
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Umm, last time I looked the Kiwi was NZD...
Try another alka-seltzer
##Andrews liver salts for me
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
25335 is tren supp on our dow chart....coiuld get a visit
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
dax....bulls will be desprate to get it above 13300
13335 for a test poss on cards
13335 for a test poss on cards
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
- NAFTA threat casts long shadow as markets digest SAFE denial on China
Treasury allocations, unchanged BoJ 1-10 yr operation, Australia Retail
Sales; awaiting BoE credit surveys, ECB minutes, US PPI, Claims and Fed
speak from Dudley; UK 20-yr, Italy 2 & 6-yr and US 30-yr
- US PPI: seen posting modest rise on headline and core; downside risks due
to Food prices
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's data schedule does not look to be particularly challenging, being a case of digesting the Australian Retail Sales ahead of German 2017 GDP, US PPI and weekly jobless claims. In event terms, the account of the ECB meeting, and a speech by outgoing NY Fed boss & FOMC Vice Chairman Dudley, will accompany the BoE's Q4 Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities surveys. On the govt bond auction front, there is short dated BTP supply in Italy following hot on the heels of yesterday's syndicated 20-yr BTP, while the UK sells 20-yr conventional Gilts, and the US rounds off this weeks' funding exercise with $12.0 Bln of 30-yr. In the latter context, yesterday's headline grabber from China, suggesting that their FX reserve managers see little value in US Treasuries, and are likely to cut or even halt their purchases thereof requires some broader context. Firstly "trade tensions" were mentioned as an accompanying rationale, as such this looked to be more of a threat, specifically in the context of China being the US's largest creditor, and the rise in US borrowing due to the tax cut. If China continues to run a large Trade and Current Account surplus, it is very difficult to see how they could avoid buying Treasuries. Eminently they could go down the route that Japan went down a few years ago of allocating more of their USD holdings to deposits than Treasuries, but even this has its limits, though with US short-term rates rising and a very flat yield curve, that type of strategy certainly has merit. In terms of alternative currencies and bond markets, their options are rather limited, as is well known, and in most cases, the rates on offer are either much less attractive, or even penal. One alternative (speculative) explanation is that China is expecting its Trade and Current Account surplus to drop quite sharply, perhaps in part due to some of the pollution and capacity curbs, which might require higher volumes of imports of semi-processed and finished goods; but that would also raise supply chain risks, which the authorities may well be loath to have too much exposure too. Obviously the fact that SAFE called out the story as 'fake news' renders such a discussion of their imputed motive moot. In a similar vein, the suggestion earlier in the week that the modest cut in the volume of BoJ's long-dated (10-25 yr & 25-40 yr) QQE operations signalled the BoJ is looking to 'taper' has been negated by no change in the size of its 1-10 yr JGB operation today. In truth all of the latter pales into significance when set against the prospect of NAFTA being dismantled, as both Canada and Mexico are now suggesting is increasingly likely, laying the blame firmly at the door of Trump. In very simple terms, if this does actually turn out to be the case, then this would certainly prove to be a major headwind to growth, and business confidence, which history will not judge kindly. On the other hand, it may hopefully be the case that this in fact proves to be Canadian andd Mexican brinkmanship. The ECB 'minutes' will probably prove to be a relatively underwhelming event, thought the emergent calls for an end to QE in September from the likes of the very influential Coeure, suggests that the minutes may echo what was perceived to be a slightly less accommodative stance at the December press conference.
** U.S.A. - Dec PPI, Initial Claims **
- Following on from yesterday's lower than expected Import and Export Price data, primarily due to quite sharp falls in Food/Agricultural Products, today's PPI is expected to see a rise of 0.2% m/m on both headline and core measures, which would leave y/y rates little changed at 3.1% and 2.5% respectively. The risks are eminently to the downside, particularly as the food / agri components of yesterday's data were uniformly weak. As for weekly jobless claims, these are expected to dip to 245K after a slighly higher than expected 250K last week, and while claims have seen upside misses for the past three weeks, they remain extremely low by any historical standard over the past four decades.
from Marc Ostwald
Treasury allocations, unchanged BoJ 1-10 yr operation, Australia Retail
Sales; awaiting BoE credit surveys, ECB minutes, US PPI, Claims and Fed
speak from Dudley; UK 20-yr, Italy 2 & 6-yr and US 30-yr
- US PPI: seen posting modest rise on headline and core; downside risks due
to Food prices
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's data schedule does not look to be particularly challenging, being a case of digesting the Australian Retail Sales ahead of German 2017 GDP, US PPI and weekly jobless claims. In event terms, the account of the ECB meeting, and a speech by outgoing NY Fed boss & FOMC Vice Chairman Dudley, will accompany the BoE's Q4 Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities surveys. On the govt bond auction front, there is short dated BTP supply in Italy following hot on the heels of yesterday's syndicated 20-yr BTP, while the UK sells 20-yr conventional Gilts, and the US rounds off this weeks' funding exercise with $12.0 Bln of 30-yr. In the latter context, yesterday's headline grabber from China, suggesting that their FX reserve managers see little value in US Treasuries, and are likely to cut or even halt their purchases thereof requires some broader context. Firstly "trade tensions" were mentioned as an accompanying rationale, as such this looked to be more of a threat, specifically in the context of China being the US's largest creditor, and the rise in US borrowing due to the tax cut. If China continues to run a large Trade and Current Account surplus, it is very difficult to see how they could avoid buying Treasuries. Eminently they could go down the route that Japan went down a few years ago of allocating more of their USD holdings to deposits than Treasuries, but even this has its limits, though with US short-term rates rising and a very flat yield curve, that type of strategy certainly has merit. In terms of alternative currencies and bond markets, their options are rather limited, as is well known, and in most cases, the rates on offer are either much less attractive, or even penal. One alternative (speculative) explanation is that China is expecting its Trade and Current Account surplus to drop quite sharply, perhaps in part due to some of the pollution and capacity curbs, which might require higher volumes of imports of semi-processed and finished goods; but that would also raise supply chain risks, which the authorities may well be loath to have too much exposure too. Obviously the fact that SAFE called out the story as 'fake news' renders such a discussion of their imputed motive moot. In a similar vein, the suggestion earlier in the week that the modest cut in the volume of BoJ's long-dated (10-25 yr & 25-40 yr) QQE operations signalled the BoJ is looking to 'taper' has been negated by no change in the size of its 1-10 yr JGB operation today. In truth all of the latter pales into significance when set against the prospect of NAFTA being dismantled, as both Canada and Mexico are now suggesting is increasingly likely, laying the blame firmly at the door of Trump. In very simple terms, if this does actually turn out to be the case, then this would certainly prove to be a major headwind to growth, and business confidence, which history will not judge kindly. On the other hand, it may hopefully be the case that this in fact proves to be Canadian andd Mexican brinkmanship. The ECB 'minutes' will probably prove to be a relatively underwhelming event, thought the emergent calls for an end to QE in September from the likes of the very influential Coeure, suggests that the minutes may echo what was perceived to be a slightly less accommodative stance at the December press conference.
** U.S.A. - Dec PPI, Initial Claims **
- Following on from yesterday's lower than expected Import and Export Price data, primarily due to quite sharp falls in Food/Agricultural Products, today's PPI is expected to see a rise of 0.2% m/m on both headline and core measures, which would leave y/y rates little changed at 3.1% and 2.5% respectively. The risks are eminently to the downside, particularly as the food / agri components of yesterday's data were uniformly weak. As for weekly jobless claims, these are expected to dip to 245K after a slighly higher than expected 250K last week, and while claims have seen upside misses for the past three weeks, they remain extremely low by any historical standard over the past four decades.
from Marc Ostwald
