Trading with point and figure

- Manufacturing PMIs in focus as markets grind into gear, with politics
still offering the overarching themes

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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Happy New Year 2018. Markets will probably grind slowly into gear to start the year, with Manufacturing PMIs dominating the day's calendar. Of the overnight readings Asia, the bump higher in India to 54.7 from November's 52.6 looks to be the stand-out, though China turning out better than expected at 51.5 (vs. expected 50.6 and November's 50.8) will perhaps attract more attention, particularly in the raw materials sectors; the remaining Asian readings were mixed rather, and as has been the case for some months, rather at odds with official growth and activity data that have been generally robust.

Politics and geo-political tensions will inevitably again be key influences in 2018. Two items offer an initial point of focus: the unrest in Iran and the seemingly glaring inability of German's two 'Volksparteien' (CDU/CSU and SPD) to bridge what appear to be widening gaps in terms of forming a new 'grand coalition'. In terms of Iran, the first observation is that this round of protests looks to be very different from those in 2009, even if the initial sparks look to be a case of the all-powerful clergy attempting to undermine President Rouhani, which appears to have backfired as protesters express their deep seated dissatisfaction with the mismanagement of the economy since 1979.

For some further insights, this article https://al-monitor.com/pulse/origin...e-unlikely-mashhad-inflation-high-prices.html
and this Twitter thread
https://twitter.com/SanamF24/status/947891378247340037
offer a starting point.

As for Germany, the general public still expects that there will be a new grand coalition according to the latest opinion polls, though it has to be said that Merkel's political capital is probably at its lowest since she took office in 2005, even if there remains a vacuum in terms of who might replace her. Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen is still seen as her most likely successor, even though she would likely be more Merkel 2.0, than signal a major shift from the Merkel regimes of the past 12 years, unlike UK's John Major, she has been a stalwart of these regimes throughout the Merkel era.


from Marc Ostwald
 
dax
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