Moneylender
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Closed it with 15. May go back to 13170 or a bit higher.
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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13:2K
Whammo
Whammo
C
cantagril
Morning all,
Thanks for the nice charts
Not doing much this week. HMV has me on duty doing family stuff - ££
Taken 1L spec long on EG at .8693. Thinking that when the "deal" news is digested over the w/e that there'll be a bit of a bounce.
PS: ML - I do like your new Mifanwy of the Valleys alias
Thanks for the nice charts
Not doing much this week. HMV has me on duty doing family stuff - ££
Taken 1L spec long on EG at .8693. Thinking that when the "deal" news is digested over the w/e that there'll be a bit of a bounce.
PS: ML - I do like your new Mifanwy of the Valleys alias
Dentalfloss
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Moneylender
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Used "She that must be obeyed" pc yesterday. Must say I rather like it, so much so I will replace one of mine with something similar. Will wait and see what's on offer in January sales.Morning all,
Thanks for the nice charts
Not doing much this week. HMV has me on duty doing family stuff - ££
Taken 1L spec long on EG at .8693. Thinking that when the "deal" news is digested over the w/e that there'll be a bit of a bounce.
PS: ML - I do like your new Mifanwy of the Valleys alias
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Dentalfloss
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Welsh Denise
my wife"s family are from Cardiff....They certainly know how to have a good row
I am always on the recieving end
what should i do..??
my wife"s family are from Cardiff....They certainly know how to have a good row
I am always on the recieving end
what should i do..??
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting UK/EU agreement, China Trade, Japan revised Q3 GDP and Wages,
German Trade and French Production surge; awaiting UK Trade, Production,
Construction Output and NIESR GDP estimate ahead of US labour report,
as next week's barrage of Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB meetings looms
- UK/EU agreement underlines how much time has been wasted, but Irish border
'safety net' at least offers a stop gap; Trade talks will be even more
challenging
- China Trade: much stronger than expected outturn underlines fiscal
stimulus still has traction, and that October dip was holiday related
- UK Trade Balance: deficit seen little changed, some risk of wider
deficit given Sept improvement largely due to oil & erratics
- UK Industrial Production: seen unchanged m/m, surveys and anecdotal
evidence imply upside risk, auto output the wild card
- US labour report: wages in focus, rebound expected; Payrolls seen
settling back to solid pre-hurricane trend rate
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
After what has been something of a 'meh' week in terms of data, today's menu of statistics is something of a blockbuster, with Japan's Labour Cash Earnings (as expected) and Chinese & German Trade data to digest ahead of a raft of activity reports from the UK, including Trade and Industrial Production, before the day's likely main event - the monthly US labour market report. The events schedule is modest, though political developments in the UK, where an agreement on the 3 primary areas enables talk to move on to post Brexit Trade arrangement, and USA will clearly remain front and central, with Congress fudging yet another debt ceiling deadline, with a 2 week extension until 22 December. The market's chattering classes will probably be more entranced by the exponential rise and this morning's $5,500 roller coaster ride in Bitcoin, just ahead of the launch of Bitcoin futures on Sunday - see here for another very good article on Bitcoin from Izabella Kaminska at FT Alphaville - https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/12...when-bitcoins-market-cap-overtakes-world-gdp/
** China - November Trade Balance **
- As is the case with the bulk of incoming Chinese economic data at the current juncture, markets perceive them to be subordinated to how the post-CPC efforts by the authorities to further clamp down on leverage and credit, deal with its rising bad debt problems, and rein in pollution impact the economy over the next 18 months, and by extension over the longer term. But as ever, the commodity related elements of the Trade data will be very closely scrutinized, at an individual market level, and indeed impressed across the board, underlining that the October 'weakness' was not weakness, but rather due to the disruption from the National Day/Autumn Festival holidays, and some specific supply hiatuses, as exemplified by the sharp rebound in Soy imports. The surge in LNG imports had been well flagged by the large SOE energy suppliers, and confirms the swing away from coal to LNG, while the rise in coal imports was due to a combination of production halts for maintenance and to adhere to winter pollution rules, and the need for 'cleaner', higher quality coal imports. Overall the much stronger than expected pick-up Exports and Imports once again underlines that the fiscal stimulus continues to have considerable traction, even if it will inevitably slow during 2018, but it should be remembered that 2017 GDP will likely turn out around 6.8% y/y, considerably higher than the 6.2%-6.4% that most forecasters had pencilled at the start of this year. China does have a considerable array of major challenges, but prematurely forecasting an imminent slowdown looks to be unwise.
** U.K. - Brexit negotiations **
- So an agreement on the first three elements has finally been reached, and outside of the safety net agreement on the Irish border, i.e. that the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union in the context of the Good Friday agreement will remain in place unless / until an alternative arrangement is agreed, this was broadly the position outlined by the EU in April. As such 8 months appear to have been wasted, though with the agreement that the UK will continue to pay into and be involved on decisions on the EU budget in 2019 & 2020, at least some further time has effectively been bought. The question now is whether the hard Brexiteers decide to unseat Mrs May, or whether 'fear of Corbyn' reins in their propensity for internecine warfare.
** U.K. - Oct Industrial Production, Trade and Construction Output **
- The UK Manufacturing sector is very clearly a bright spot at the moment, as is the case across most of Europe and many other parts of the world. Expectations centre on a flat m/m reading, seemingly predicated on the unchanged October Manufacturing PMI, though thanks to base effects this would still see y/y rates jump up to 3.5% for Industrial Production and 3.8% for Manufacturing Output. As is well documented, both Construction Output and the Trade Balance are highly erratic, and often subject to very large revisions. The consensus sees a modest 0.1% m/m rise in Construction Output, which would only be the second gain in 5 months, and this looks to premised on the rise in the sector PMI, though the breakdown in terms of residential, commercial and civil will require attention. The Trade Balance narrowed from a heavily downwardly revised £-12.35 Bln in August to £-11.25 Bln in September, and the consensus sees only a marginal widening to £-11.5 Bln. On balance the risk looks to be for a larger deficit, primarily because last month's improvement was mostly due to oil and erratics, which as a rule of thumb tends not to be a trend changer. Last but not least, the NIESR will publish its latest GDP estimate, which is expected to slow to 0.4% q/q from 0.5%, presumably due to the subdued pace of private consumption, but still very much in line with expectations that the current trend rate of GDP is around 1.5% y/y.
** U.S.A. - November Payrolls / Earnings **
- AS previously observed, US Payrolls has of late become notable for the lack of market volatility that it engenders, despite the sharp fluctuations of recent months due to hurricane effects. Headline Payrolls are seen up a 'military medium' 185K, way above the assumed estimate of the equilibrium rate of 80-100K, but very much in line with the not necessarily reliable indications from the ADP Employment estimate. The Unemployment Rate is seen at sticking to its cyclical low at 4.1%, though a rebound in the participation rate after last month's drop to 62.7%, and / or a drop in the Underemployment Rate would be more significant. Eminently none of this will matter, if Average Hourly Earnings do not bounce back as anticipated (0.3% m/m 2.7% y/y vs. Oct flat m/m 2.4% y/y), though the consensus looks to be 'in the ball park' after the hurricane related choppiness.
from Marc Ostwald
German Trade and French Production surge; awaiting UK Trade, Production,
Construction Output and NIESR GDP estimate ahead of US labour report,
as next week's barrage of Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB meetings looms
- UK/EU agreement underlines how much time has been wasted, but Irish border
'safety net' at least offers a stop gap; Trade talks will be even more
challenging
- China Trade: much stronger than expected outturn underlines fiscal
stimulus still has traction, and that October dip was holiday related
- UK Trade Balance: deficit seen little changed, some risk of wider
deficit given Sept improvement largely due to oil & erratics
- UK Industrial Production: seen unchanged m/m, surveys and anecdotal
evidence imply upside risk, auto output the wild card
- US labour report: wages in focus, rebound expected; Payrolls seen
settling back to solid pre-hurricane trend rate
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
After what has been something of a 'meh' week in terms of data, today's menu of statistics is something of a blockbuster, with Japan's Labour Cash Earnings (as expected) and Chinese & German Trade data to digest ahead of a raft of activity reports from the UK, including Trade and Industrial Production, before the day's likely main event - the monthly US labour market report. The events schedule is modest, though political developments in the UK, where an agreement on the 3 primary areas enables talk to move on to post Brexit Trade arrangement, and USA will clearly remain front and central, with Congress fudging yet another debt ceiling deadline, with a 2 week extension until 22 December. The market's chattering classes will probably be more entranced by the exponential rise and this morning's $5,500 roller coaster ride in Bitcoin, just ahead of the launch of Bitcoin futures on Sunday - see here for another very good article on Bitcoin from Izabella Kaminska at FT Alphaville - https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/12...when-bitcoins-market-cap-overtakes-world-gdp/
** China - November Trade Balance **
- As is the case with the bulk of incoming Chinese economic data at the current juncture, markets perceive them to be subordinated to how the post-CPC efforts by the authorities to further clamp down on leverage and credit, deal with its rising bad debt problems, and rein in pollution impact the economy over the next 18 months, and by extension over the longer term. But as ever, the commodity related elements of the Trade data will be very closely scrutinized, at an individual market level, and indeed impressed across the board, underlining that the October 'weakness' was not weakness, but rather due to the disruption from the National Day/Autumn Festival holidays, and some specific supply hiatuses, as exemplified by the sharp rebound in Soy imports. The surge in LNG imports had been well flagged by the large SOE energy suppliers, and confirms the swing away from coal to LNG, while the rise in coal imports was due to a combination of production halts for maintenance and to adhere to winter pollution rules, and the need for 'cleaner', higher quality coal imports. Overall the much stronger than expected pick-up Exports and Imports once again underlines that the fiscal stimulus continues to have considerable traction, even if it will inevitably slow during 2018, but it should be remembered that 2017 GDP will likely turn out around 6.8% y/y, considerably higher than the 6.2%-6.4% that most forecasters had pencilled at the start of this year. China does have a considerable array of major challenges, but prematurely forecasting an imminent slowdown looks to be unwise.
** U.K. - Brexit negotiations **
- So an agreement on the first three elements has finally been reached, and outside of the safety net agreement on the Irish border, i.e. that the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union in the context of the Good Friday agreement will remain in place unless / until an alternative arrangement is agreed, this was broadly the position outlined by the EU in April. As such 8 months appear to have been wasted, though with the agreement that the UK will continue to pay into and be involved on decisions on the EU budget in 2019 & 2020, at least some further time has effectively been bought. The question now is whether the hard Brexiteers decide to unseat Mrs May, or whether 'fear of Corbyn' reins in their propensity for internecine warfare.
** U.K. - Oct Industrial Production, Trade and Construction Output **
- The UK Manufacturing sector is very clearly a bright spot at the moment, as is the case across most of Europe and many other parts of the world. Expectations centre on a flat m/m reading, seemingly predicated on the unchanged October Manufacturing PMI, though thanks to base effects this would still see y/y rates jump up to 3.5% for Industrial Production and 3.8% for Manufacturing Output. As is well documented, both Construction Output and the Trade Balance are highly erratic, and often subject to very large revisions. The consensus sees a modest 0.1% m/m rise in Construction Output, which would only be the second gain in 5 months, and this looks to premised on the rise in the sector PMI, though the breakdown in terms of residential, commercial and civil will require attention. The Trade Balance narrowed from a heavily downwardly revised £-12.35 Bln in August to £-11.25 Bln in September, and the consensus sees only a marginal widening to £-11.5 Bln. On balance the risk looks to be for a larger deficit, primarily because last month's improvement was mostly due to oil and erratics, which as a rule of thumb tends not to be a trend changer. Last but not least, the NIESR will publish its latest GDP estimate, which is expected to slow to 0.4% q/q from 0.5%, presumably due to the subdued pace of private consumption, but still very much in line with expectations that the current trend rate of GDP is around 1.5% y/y.
** U.S.A. - November Payrolls / Earnings **
- AS previously observed, US Payrolls has of late become notable for the lack of market volatility that it engenders, despite the sharp fluctuations of recent months due to hurricane effects. Headline Payrolls are seen up a 'military medium' 185K, way above the assumed estimate of the equilibrium rate of 80-100K, but very much in line with the not necessarily reliable indications from the ADP Employment estimate. The Unemployment Rate is seen at sticking to its cyclical low at 4.1%, though a rebound in the participation rate after last month's drop to 62.7%, and / or a drop in the Underemployment Rate would be more significant. Eminently none of this will matter, if Average Hourly Earnings do not bounce back as anticipated (0.3% m/m 2.7% y/y vs. Oct flat m/m 2.4% y/y), though the consensus looks to be 'in the ball park' after the hurricane related choppiness.
from Marc Ostwald
Moneylender
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Give her more house keeping, retail therapy works wonders. Alternatively spend more time at the pub!
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Moneylender
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Right where is the first support for my short?
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Dentalfloss
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13181 area
Dentalfloss
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oil
updated...in rez
updated...in rez
Dentalfloss
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DOW
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Dentalfloss
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dow
24250 nrez showing up nicely
24200 pivot area also seen
24250 nrez showing up nicely
24200 pivot area also seen
Moneylender
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Moneylender
Legendary member
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If it goes back to 13200 will try it again
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
C
cantagril
This might be red herring but you might consider trying out linux on one of your old machines. I ran linux only on a dual core Tosh for a few years and it was such a change for the better after 20 years of Microsoft hassle. I now have a dual-boot linux/W10 i7 laptop running MT4 under both OS and much prefer the speed and stability of linux to W10. I can't get BEB to work under linux but just do my charts on W10 before switching over.
I'm constantly having problems of one kind or another with W10 on whatever machine I'm using (e.g my PC) and whilst linux (I'm using Ubuntu 16.04) does have limitations I can at least rely on it for speed and and generally just doing what it's supposed to do without incident.
Moneylender
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Tried linux before but had serious problems getting mt4 to work.
Problems I had yesterday was partly my fault as I dont normally let W10 update until the weekend. Running an i5 laptop and pc now but after using Denise's i7 yesterday, it was an eye opener. Its probably wasted on her but there you go! lol
Dentalfloss
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