Trading with point and figure

dax
updated general veiw

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Morning folks! I'm out all day today so won't be trading is posting much. Got a cheeky long in from 7 am on the Dax. Paid for my train ticket.. Result!

Have a good day!
 
- Digesting weaker than expected German Production, awaiting Eurozone Q3
GDP details, China FX Reserves, US Claims and Consumer Credit, ahead of
tonight's revised Japan Q3 GDP; politics in driving seat with Trump
Jerusalem decision, Brexit drama and German SPD vote on grand coalition

- Germany Industrial Production out of sync with Orders, 3-mth average
still positive and probably a better indication of trend rate

- Charts: WTI Oil, Coking Coal and Iron Ore futures

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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While the day's schedule has a reasonable volume of data to digest, there are few items that look likely to jar markets in one direction or another, while the highlight on the events side of the calendar will be the German SPD convention, which will hold a vote on whether to approve grand coalition negotiations with CDU/CSU. Statistically, there are the German Industrial Production to digest ahead of China FX Reserves, final & detailed Eurozone Q3 GDP, US weekly jobless claims & Consumer Credit and Mexico, while tonight brings an expected upward revision to Japan Q3 GDP. On the govt bond auction front the UK holds the second of two Gilt auctions to help to 'mop up' coupon and redemption payments that fall today, with a £2.25 Bln auction of 2047 Gilt, while France and Spain wrap up their annual funding with multi-maturity sales. Politics will again be to the fore as UK govt attempts to find some compromise on the hypersensitive issue of the Irish border, while the fall-out from Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital threatens to escalate already enormous tensions across the Middle East, and quite obviously contradicts UN resolution 478 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_478)

German Industrial Production once again managed to disappointment at -1.4% m/m 2.7% y/y, notwithstanding the modest upward revision to September to -0.9% m/m from -1.6%, and clearly does not fit with the solid profile to Factory Orders. That said the 3-mth average still stands at 1.1%, considerably lower than the Q2 average of 1.9%, but still expanding. The risks on tonight's Japan revised Q3 GDP look to be to the upside of the consensus of 1.5% sAAR vs provisional 1.4%, given that last week's Q3 CapEx proved better than expected at 4.2% y/y (vs. forecast 3.2%), and this in turn suggested Q3 GDP should be revised up to around 2.0% SAAR.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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