Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Morning all,
Missed all the fun yesterday. Now looking at long EG.
Missed all the fun yesterday. Now looking at long EG.
C
cantagril
There's a clear advantage in shopping both sides of the counter - even if it isn't really your thing
C
cantagril
Long EG at .8840. Just 1L atm.
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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- Awaiting German CPI, UK Credit, US revised Q3 GDP, Pending Home Sales
and Fed Beige Book; Yellen testimony to be accompanied by more from
Dudley and Williams; Optimism on Brexit talks and US tax reform bill
keeps politics front and central
- UK Consumer Credit: further modest slowdown expected, still unsustainably
high growth rate
- Germany CPI: slight uptick seen in y/y terms, but pressures largely
confined to Food & Energy
- US GDP: private consumption and inventories expected to pace modest
upward revision
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The first run of national Eurozone November CPI readings (Spain, Germany & Belgium) tops the day's statistical run, with the overnight UK BRC Shop Prices to be digested ahead of UK Credit & Monetary aggregates, while the US has its first revision of Q3 GDP, Pending Home Sales and the Fed's Beige Book. Yellen's valedictory testimony to Congress' Joint Economic Committee dominates the central bank schedule, with Dudley and Williams also on the Fed speak list, while ECB's Knot speaks at the UK Society of Business Economists dinner. Ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting, there are the EIA oil inventories, which follow a surprise 1.8 Mln rise in the API Crude Inventories against forecasts of a 2.3 Mln draw, which was accompanied by a larger than expected 2.7 Mln build in Gasoline stocks. Politics will as ever continue to be a key influence with the GBP and US stocks getting a boost from the signal that the EU and UK have agreed on the outline sum for the so-called 'Brexit bill', and positive signals on the US tax reform bill, even though agreement on a debt ceiling resolution / spending bill looks to be elusive, with some form of a short-term stop gap extension required ahead of the December 8 deadline.
** Germany, Spain - November CPI **
- Spanish CPI missed forecasts of a 0.4% m/m 1.9% y/y HICP rise, coming in at 0.3% m/m 1.7% y/y, and attention now turns to the all-important German reading, which is seen up 0.3% m/m, edging the y/y rate up to 1.7% y/y, with the first state reading from Saxony turning out as expected at 0.3% m/m. The risks on the German reading are marginally to the upside of forecasts, though the critical aspect as far as tomorrow's overall Eurozone CPI goes will be the core measure (forecast at 1.0% y/y vs. November's 0.9%), and the pointers from the breakdown of the Saxony data suggests that most of the upside pressure came from Food and Energy, and as such core CPI pressures remain largely absent.
** U.K. - October Consumer Credit **
- For all that there has been talk of banks tightening lending standards, and the concerns voiced by BoE's Cunliffe this morning that the strength in consumer credit growth requires a watchful eye, y/y growth has only eased very modestly to 9.9% y/y in September, with forecasts looking for £1.5 Bln increase, which would imply a further slowdown in the y/y rate. But having expanded at a 10% plus y/y pace for much of the past 2 years (see chart), during which time average earnings have struggled to sustain much more than 2.0% y/y growth, the unsustainability of this situation is all too obvious.
** U.S.A. - Q3 revised GDP / Yellen / Fed Beige Book **
- Following on from yesterday's 17-yr high in Consumer Confidence (129.2), the first revision to Q3 GDP is expected to see a very modest upward revision to 3.2% SAAR from the preliminary 3.0%, predicated on a small upward revision to Personal Consumption to 2.5% from 2.4%, and a slightly larger contribution from inventories. However markets will probably see this data as being rather historical, and are more focussed on Q4 GDP, which the Atlanta and NY Fed models currently estimate at 3.4% and 3.7% respectively, though many forecasters look for an outturn north of 4.0%. Yellen's testimony will likely echo the comments of Powell and Dudley in recent days, hinting strongly at a December rate hike, taking "slightly below target" inflation in her stride, and pointing to solid growth momentum, and a tight labour market. She will more than likely face some questions on financial sector regulatory reform proposals, and it will be interesting to see how strongly she words her objection to any rollback. It would be very surprising if the Fed's Beige Book pointed to anything but a robust growth outlook, even if the Beige Book's language generally tends to be understated. Of particular note will be any assessment of how much the current acceleration in growth is seen as transitory and related to post hurricane reconstruction and replacement demand, or whether it is in fact indicative of an underlying acceleration.
from Marc Ostwald
and Fed Beige Book; Yellen testimony to be accompanied by more from
Dudley and Williams; Optimism on Brexit talks and US tax reform bill
keeps politics front and central
- UK Consumer Credit: further modest slowdown expected, still unsustainably
high growth rate
- Germany CPI: slight uptick seen in y/y terms, but pressures largely
confined to Food & Energy
- US GDP: private consumption and inventories expected to pace modest
upward revision
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The first run of national Eurozone November CPI readings (Spain, Germany & Belgium) tops the day's statistical run, with the overnight UK BRC Shop Prices to be digested ahead of UK Credit & Monetary aggregates, while the US has its first revision of Q3 GDP, Pending Home Sales and the Fed's Beige Book. Yellen's valedictory testimony to Congress' Joint Economic Committee dominates the central bank schedule, with Dudley and Williams also on the Fed speak list, while ECB's Knot speaks at the UK Society of Business Economists dinner. Ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting, there are the EIA oil inventories, which follow a surprise 1.8 Mln rise in the API Crude Inventories against forecasts of a 2.3 Mln draw, which was accompanied by a larger than expected 2.7 Mln build in Gasoline stocks. Politics will as ever continue to be a key influence with the GBP and US stocks getting a boost from the signal that the EU and UK have agreed on the outline sum for the so-called 'Brexit bill', and positive signals on the US tax reform bill, even though agreement on a debt ceiling resolution / spending bill looks to be elusive, with some form of a short-term stop gap extension required ahead of the December 8 deadline.
** Germany, Spain - November CPI **
- Spanish CPI missed forecasts of a 0.4% m/m 1.9% y/y HICP rise, coming in at 0.3% m/m 1.7% y/y, and attention now turns to the all-important German reading, which is seen up 0.3% m/m, edging the y/y rate up to 1.7% y/y, with the first state reading from Saxony turning out as expected at 0.3% m/m. The risks on the German reading are marginally to the upside of forecasts, though the critical aspect as far as tomorrow's overall Eurozone CPI goes will be the core measure (forecast at 1.0% y/y vs. November's 0.9%), and the pointers from the breakdown of the Saxony data suggests that most of the upside pressure came from Food and Energy, and as such core CPI pressures remain largely absent.
** U.K. - October Consumer Credit **
- For all that there has been talk of banks tightening lending standards, and the concerns voiced by BoE's Cunliffe this morning that the strength in consumer credit growth requires a watchful eye, y/y growth has only eased very modestly to 9.9% y/y in September, with forecasts looking for £1.5 Bln increase, which would imply a further slowdown in the y/y rate. But having expanded at a 10% plus y/y pace for much of the past 2 years (see chart), during which time average earnings have struggled to sustain much more than 2.0% y/y growth, the unsustainability of this situation is all too obvious.
** U.S.A. - Q3 revised GDP / Yellen / Fed Beige Book **
- Following on from yesterday's 17-yr high in Consumer Confidence (129.2), the first revision to Q3 GDP is expected to see a very modest upward revision to 3.2% SAAR from the preliminary 3.0%, predicated on a small upward revision to Personal Consumption to 2.5% from 2.4%, and a slightly larger contribution from inventories. However markets will probably see this data as being rather historical, and are more focussed on Q4 GDP, which the Atlanta and NY Fed models currently estimate at 3.4% and 3.7% respectively, though many forecasters look for an outturn north of 4.0%. Yellen's testimony will likely echo the comments of Powell and Dudley in recent days, hinting strongly at a December rate hike, taking "slightly below target" inflation in her stride, and pointing to solid growth momentum, and a tight labour market. She will more than likely face some questions on financial sector regulatory reform proposals, and it will be interesting to see how strongly she words her objection to any rollback. It would be very surprising if the Fed's Beige Book pointed to anything but a robust growth outlook, even if the Beige Book's language generally tends to be understated. Of particular note will be any assessment of how much the current acceleration in growth is seen as transitory and related to post hurricane reconstruction and replacement demand, or whether it is in fact indicative of an underlying acceleration.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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Dax pivot
Dentalfloss
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dow
Dentalfloss
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Moneylender
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Moneylender
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"North Korea says new missile puts all of US in striking range"
Six months ago that headline would have seen the DOW drop a 1000 points or more!!
Six months ago that headline would have seen the DOW drop a 1000 points or more!!
Dentalfloss
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netdania
3 min HLC
3 min HLC
Dentalfloss
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netdania has lots of different timeframes....especially on the low end
Dentalfloss
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great for lookin for pivots without having to fiddle with p/f inputs
Dentalfloss
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a clearer veiw
Moneylender
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Right on th etrend now!
C
cantagril
Add 1l at .8830
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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