Dentalfloss
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- Digesting solid Australian labour data, awaiting UK Retail Sales,
US Claims, Industrial Production & Philly Fed, along with raft of Fed,
BoE & ECB speakers; govt bond supply very plentiful - France, Spain, UK
and USA
- UK Retail Sales: marginal recovery seen after September slide, some
downside risks, underlying trend sluggish
- US Industrial Production: utilities likely to weigh on headline, but
surveys and manufacturing hours imply upside risks on Manufacturing
Output: Philly Fed seen lower but at very robust levels
- US Jobless Claims: expected to dip back towards 44-yr low
- Chart: NY Fed underlying inflation gauge
(https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/underlying-inflation-gauge)
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As has been evident over the past week, financial markets' current internal dynamics are rendering the schedule of data and events somewhat academic, and subject to a narrow self-interested perspective in perception terms. Be that as it may the schedule is again replete with central bank speakers (Fed, BoE and ECB amongst others), and statistically has Australian labour data to digest (continuing to show strong growth in full time Employment, but thus far not having any impact on wages) ahead of UK Retail Sales, US weekly jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey, Industrial Production and Import Prices. The week's govt bond supply bonanza concludes with French medium-dated and inflation linked and multi-maturity Spanish Bono auctions, while the UK sells £2.5 Bln of 10-yr and the US offers $11.0 Bln of 10-yr TIPS. In corporate earnings terms, Wal-Mart will almost inevitably be the 'elephant in the room'.
** U.K. - October Retail Sales **
- Headline and ex-auto fuel Retail Sales are seen up 0.2% m/m and flat respectively, though the very poor BRC, BDO and Visa retail surveys tend to suggest some downside risks. The series is of course notoriously choppy, as evidenced by the -0.7% m/m in September following the ostensible strength seen in August and July +0.9% and 0.8% m/m respectively. As such it is little surprise that the 3-mth/3-mth measure (last 0.6% q/q) offers a rather better idea of underlying trend. Tuesday's CPI data impart some modest downside risks given the continued upside pressure on Food prices, though the dip in petrol prices may offer some offset, and while warm weather are likely to have been drag on clothing sales volumes, at least the hefty drag from clothes prices inflation (Oct 0.2% m/m following Sept 3.9% and Aug 2.4%) should be less of a factor this month. The expected drop of 0.5% y/y will primarily be due to base effects, given last October's 1.9% m/m surge.
** U.S.A. - Oct Industrial Production / Jobless Claims / Nov Philly Fed **
- Following on from largely uninspiring CPI (core slightly above forecasts, NY Fed Underlying Inflation Gauge at 11-yr high - see chart) and Retail Sales (underlining a solid start for Q4 Personal Consumption), the focus turn to Industrial Production. Both headline Production and Manufacturing Output are seen up a solid 0.5% m/m, whereby the risks to the headline are to the downside due to a weather driven drag from utilities, while the strong rebound in Manufacturing Hours (0.8% m/m) and the likelihood of a pick-up in auto output implies upside risks to Manufacturing Output. If the truly overblown negativity about a below forecast, but still strong NY Fed Manufacturing survey, then tetchy, myopic and self-obsessed financial markets would probably take umbrage at any miss in today's Philly Fed Manufacturing, where a modest slip to 24.6 from October's 27.9 is anticipated. Initial Claims are seen a little lower on the week at 235K vs. prior 239K, and still not far away from the 44-yr low recorded two weeks ago; the strength of the labour market is however hardly news, and wages data still remain the key focal point.
from Marc Ostwald
US Claims, Industrial Production & Philly Fed, along with raft of Fed,
BoE & ECB speakers; govt bond supply very plentiful - France, Spain, UK
and USA
- UK Retail Sales: marginal recovery seen after September slide, some
downside risks, underlying trend sluggish
- US Industrial Production: utilities likely to weigh on headline, but
surveys and manufacturing hours imply upside risks on Manufacturing
Output: Philly Fed seen lower but at very robust levels
- US Jobless Claims: expected to dip back towards 44-yr low
- Chart: NY Fed underlying inflation gauge
(https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/underlying-inflation-gauge)
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As has been evident over the past week, financial markets' current internal dynamics are rendering the schedule of data and events somewhat academic, and subject to a narrow self-interested perspective in perception terms. Be that as it may the schedule is again replete with central bank speakers (Fed, BoE and ECB amongst others), and statistically has Australian labour data to digest (continuing to show strong growth in full time Employment, but thus far not having any impact on wages) ahead of UK Retail Sales, US weekly jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey, Industrial Production and Import Prices. The week's govt bond supply bonanza concludes with French medium-dated and inflation linked and multi-maturity Spanish Bono auctions, while the UK sells £2.5 Bln of 10-yr and the US offers $11.0 Bln of 10-yr TIPS. In corporate earnings terms, Wal-Mart will almost inevitably be the 'elephant in the room'.
** U.K. - October Retail Sales **
- Headline and ex-auto fuel Retail Sales are seen up 0.2% m/m and flat respectively, though the very poor BRC, BDO and Visa retail surveys tend to suggest some downside risks. The series is of course notoriously choppy, as evidenced by the -0.7% m/m in September following the ostensible strength seen in August and July +0.9% and 0.8% m/m respectively. As such it is little surprise that the 3-mth/3-mth measure (last 0.6% q/q) offers a rather better idea of underlying trend. Tuesday's CPI data impart some modest downside risks given the continued upside pressure on Food prices, though the dip in petrol prices may offer some offset, and while warm weather are likely to have been drag on clothing sales volumes, at least the hefty drag from clothes prices inflation (Oct 0.2% m/m following Sept 3.9% and Aug 2.4%) should be less of a factor this month. The expected drop of 0.5% y/y will primarily be due to base effects, given last October's 1.9% m/m surge.
** U.S.A. - Oct Industrial Production / Jobless Claims / Nov Philly Fed **
- Following on from largely uninspiring CPI (core slightly above forecasts, NY Fed Underlying Inflation Gauge at 11-yr high - see chart) and Retail Sales (underlining a solid start for Q4 Personal Consumption), the focus turn to Industrial Production. Both headline Production and Manufacturing Output are seen up a solid 0.5% m/m, whereby the risks to the headline are to the downside due to a weather driven drag from utilities, while the strong rebound in Manufacturing Hours (0.8% m/m) and the likelihood of a pick-up in auto output implies upside risks to Manufacturing Output. If the truly overblown negativity about a below forecast, but still strong NY Fed Manufacturing survey, then tetchy, myopic and self-obsessed financial markets would probably take umbrage at any miss in today's Philly Fed Manufacturing, where a modest slip to 24.6 from October's 27.9 is anticipated. Initial Claims are seen a little lower on the week at 235K vs. prior 239K, and still not far away from the 44-yr low recorded two weeks ago; the strength of the labour market is however hardly news, and wages data still remain the key focal point.
from Marc Ostwald
