Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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This is what confuses me about Pnf, you basically just adjust the box size and rev until you get a pattern that you believe inDOW
Dentalfloss
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not all the time
i will update that chart tomorrow morning
the new data could wreck our parameters
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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yes sir
on this thread and only this thread .....we visually optimise the chart
does it work..??
how many bad ones have we had..???
Moneylender
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Morning all
Time to start selling the spikes soon????
Time to start selling the spikes soon????
Moneylender
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Dentalfloss
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oil in horizontal rez
Dentalfloss
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- Modest schedule of data to start the week features strong German Orders
and Eurozone Services PMIs; markets seemingly impervious to series of
major weekend developments
- Saudi Arabia: 'corruption' purge clearly designed to strengthen MbS hold
on power, puts even greater on ensuring Vision 2030 success, and by
extension Aramco IPO
- Fed: Dudley exit completes changing of the guard at the top of the Fed,
adds some uncertainty to Fed policy outlook
- Charts: BAML EUR HY Bond avg yield; Iron Ore, WTI (x2)
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It is not that often that a week ahead written on Saturday morning looks to have been overtaken by events over the rest of the weekend, but it has that feel this week. At the very least, it offers rather more talking points than the meagre scheduled offering of Eurozone Services PMIs and the just published and very strong German Factory Orders (1.0% m/m 9.5% y/y vs. expected -1.1%/7.1%), accompanied by a raft of ECB speakers, does. That said, financial markets performance and reaction function remains over-ridingly dictated by the constraints of financial repression, and investment strategies primarily remain of the 'path of least resistance, job preservation' variety, as a consequence, with gearing / leverage elevated and by extension posing as the most likely source of an upset. As an example, consider that the BAML HY Bond average yield at 1.52 (see chart) is now 10 bps below the US 2yr Treasury yield.
So where to start? Let's go with the Fed, and the story that NY Fed's Dudley, who also speaks today, will announce that he will retire sometime in H1 2018 once a successor has been found. This means that the Fed will have a completely new leadership team by mid-2018, which will add a frisson of uncertainty to the policy outlook, particularly if the new appointees are less academic than the likes of Bernanke, Yellen and Fischer.
Moving on: the arrest of 10 princes, including Prince Al Waleed bin Talal, and numerous other mostly former government officials and CEOs in Saudi Arabia on charges of corruption has echoes of Chinese President Xi's anti-graft crusade. It also looks to be a further assertion of power by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, rooting out any opposition within the broader Al Saud ruling family, and ostensibly bolstering his desire for rather radical reform. That said it will only deepen divisions within the royal family, and puts an even higher premium on the need to make his Vision 2030 a success, of which the IPO of Aramco is the cornerstone. Had this happened in Iran, perhaps US and even UK government reaction would have been less nonchalant. But both have literally been begging for the IPO and indeed more 'defence' orders, and as such we should not be surprised that there is such an enormous crisis of confidence in the political fraternity in the western world. There will likely be a great deal of concern among international companies with substantial business interests in Saudi Arabia about the fall-out for them from this purge, and it may also deter some western investors from participating in the Aramco IPO, which in turn would also play into Sino-Russian interests. It will inevitably only serve to heighten Saudi Iranian tensions, with the shock resignation of Lebanese PM Saad Hariri at the weekend having all the hallmarks of Saudi intervention, within the context of the proxy war with Iran. Should the new Lebanese government be more heavily dominated by Hezbollah (closely allied with Iran), the risk of the US imposing quote hefty sanctions on Lebanon should not be underestimated, nor of renewed military conflict with Israel, both of which would potentially have very damaging consequences for Lebanon's economy. For markets, it will be a case of the potential for fall-out in some of the stocks that Prince Al Waleed has large stakes in such as Citicorp, Twitter and Apple.
In addition, Trump will apparently be meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the APEC meeting at the end of the week. Some are suggesting that Trump may seek Putin's help in respect of North Korea, but this seems improbable, in so far as the Chinese leadership have made it very clear that Russia does not have a role to play, and indeed a very weak hand in foreign policy terms in Asia. However the fact remains that both in the case of Iran and indeed North Korea, it is Russian technology that has facilitated the development of their various nuclear facilities, a fact which Trump will more than likely be keen to explore, even if Congress seems unlikely to back him in any shape or form, were he to offer some form of 'quid pro quo'.
Last but not least, the "Panama Papers" have been quickly forgotten, but in the fevered climate that currently surrounds the broader so-called elite, and with western political classes displaying an intellectual and moral bankruptcy that reaches for the stars, the 'Paradise Papers' will surely be grist to the mill for the world's Bolsheviks
A couple of points to note in the commodity space, Iron Ore is threatening a break out of the sideways 'bottoming out' trading range of recent months, while on WTI there are two attached charts to ponder, short-term chart says WTI v overbought, but as @chigrl points out on the long-term chart, there is a 2015 gap to fill up to 56.50.
* RECAP * (updated with Corp Earnings) The Week Ahead - Preview: 6 to 10 November 2017
- Largely due to the way that the calendar falls in November, this week's statistical schedule is not particularly burdensome, which will likely put the focus even more on political and policy events, perhaps above all Trump's trip to Asia and Brexit related developments.
- Statistically you know that "it's a nothing week" in the USA, when the data highlights are JOLTs Job Openings and preliminary Michigan Sentiment. China therefore gets top billing via way of Trade, CPI and PPI. The UK and Eurozone have a rather busier schedule with (national) Industrial Production and Trade data featuring heavily. Germany has Factory Orders, which also feature in Japan along with Labour Cash Earnings, while the UK also sees BRC Retail Sales, Construction Output and the RICS survey. Monday also brings the remaining Services PMIs in Japan and Europe.
- Politically Trump embarks on a marathon trip around Asia, which takes in China mid-week, with the focus on North Korea and South China Sea tensions, as well as vast array of bilateral trade issues. For the UK, a new round of Brexit related negotiations begins, which will certainly be critical in determining whether the December EU summit can opt to open broader, second round negotiations on the UK's trade and other relationships with the EU post Brexit. There would appear to be some movement on the so-called Brexit 'exit bill', and indeed UK and EU citizens' rights post Brexit, however the thorny issue of Northern Ireland appears to be a major stumbling block, with the relationship between the Westminster and Dublin governments at its worst for a number of decades. Equally problematic are the chasm that has opened up over the regional govt in Northern Ireland, with Sinn Fein and the DUP seemingly a world apart in terms of being able to form a regional govt, and the UK government very vulnerable due to its dependence on the DUP to pass legislation in Westminster. Indeed with the run of allegations of inappropriate behaviour engulfing parliament, the UK government appears to be doing little more than fire-fighting on multiple fronts, which in itself hardly bodes well for the Brexit negotiation process. There are also EcoFin and Euro group finance ministers meetings, which among other topics are set to discuss banking union and the fiscal rules for European Monetary Union, though material progress on these seems unlikely until a new German coalition government is formed.
- In central bank terms, Australia's RBA and New Zealand's RBNZ are both expected to keep policy rates on hold at 1.50% and 1.75% respectively, and will doubtless stick to signalling that rate hikes are still a fairly distant prospect, with the RBNZ also waiting to see how its operating parameters will be changed by the new government. Dudley and Draghi top a quite busy week for Fed and above all ECB speakers, and it will be a busy week for policy decisions in non-Eurozone Europe, Asia and EM countries. None of the latter are expected to see any policy rate changes, however there will be particular interest in the Polish and Romanian central bank decisions, given the relatively hawkish tone struck by the Czech National Bank last week. That said Poland's NBP has been resolute in arguing that with inflation well contained around target, it does not see any reason to hike rates near term, despite the strength of the economy, rapidly falling unemployment and robust real wage growth. Romania's BNR has also resisted pressure to tighten policy, and faces the dilemma that with the fiscal side of the equation seemingly careering out of control, with govt spending rising rapidly (and thus fuelling the economic boom) and tax revenues falling sharply as a proportion of GDP, the risk of an economic derailment is escalating. Given Powell's nomination as Fed chair and his endorsement of some rollback of post-GFC regulation, the also recently confirmed Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Quarles' speech at the Clearing House annual conference will clearly demand some attention.
- Govt bond supply sees the US quarterly refunding with 3, 10 & 30-yr Treasuries, while a modest run in the Eurozone has Germany selling 5-yr and a 'tiddler' auction of 2030 inflation linked Bunds, while Austria sells 5 & 10-yr, and the UK re-opens the 2023 Gilt. However it is woe stricken and debt laden Venezuela which will attract more attention, following President Maduro's announcement of a debt restructuring - for some background, this Alphaville post is worth re-reading https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10...he-coming-need-for-a-standstill-in-venezuela/ along with
this FT article: https://www.ft.com/content/56de9ebe-c05f-11e7-b8a3-38a6e068f464
- The Q3 Corporate Earnings starts to wind down in the US, though overall it will still be quite a busy week, featuring amongst others: Adecco, Adidas, Allianz, ArcelorMittal, AstraZeneca, BMW, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Enel, Intesa Sanpaolo, Kohl's, Macy's, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Munich Re, Nordstrom, Pirelli, Siemens, Snap, Toyota Motor, Walt Disney and Zurich Insurance.
- In the energy space, OPEC's World Oil Outlook and the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook will as ever garner plenty of attention, particularly any revisions to the supply and demand outlook for 2018, as the OPEC/Non-OPEC production cap agreement appears likely to be extended, given that the inventory overhang looks likely to persist well into 2018. In the longer run, and given the context of this week's COP23 Climate Summit in Bonn, there will be even greater challenges, as per this Cleantechnica article "Shifting Tides Could Strand 25% Of Global Oil Refining Capacity By 2035" https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/0...il-refining-capacity-2035/?platform=hootsuite
from Marc Ostwald
and Eurozone Services PMIs; markets seemingly impervious to series of
major weekend developments
- Saudi Arabia: 'corruption' purge clearly designed to strengthen MbS hold
on power, puts even greater on ensuring Vision 2030 success, and by
extension Aramco IPO
- Fed: Dudley exit completes changing of the guard at the top of the Fed,
adds some uncertainty to Fed policy outlook
- Charts: BAML EUR HY Bond avg yield; Iron Ore, WTI (x2)
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It is not that often that a week ahead written on Saturday morning looks to have been overtaken by events over the rest of the weekend, but it has that feel this week. At the very least, it offers rather more talking points than the meagre scheduled offering of Eurozone Services PMIs and the just published and very strong German Factory Orders (1.0% m/m 9.5% y/y vs. expected -1.1%/7.1%), accompanied by a raft of ECB speakers, does. That said, financial markets performance and reaction function remains over-ridingly dictated by the constraints of financial repression, and investment strategies primarily remain of the 'path of least resistance, job preservation' variety, as a consequence, with gearing / leverage elevated and by extension posing as the most likely source of an upset. As an example, consider that the BAML HY Bond average yield at 1.52 (see chart) is now 10 bps below the US 2yr Treasury yield.
So where to start? Let's go with the Fed, and the story that NY Fed's Dudley, who also speaks today, will announce that he will retire sometime in H1 2018 once a successor has been found. This means that the Fed will have a completely new leadership team by mid-2018, which will add a frisson of uncertainty to the policy outlook, particularly if the new appointees are less academic than the likes of Bernanke, Yellen and Fischer.
Moving on: the arrest of 10 princes, including Prince Al Waleed bin Talal, and numerous other mostly former government officials and CEOs in Saudi Arabia on charges of corruption has echoes of Chinese President Xi's anti-graft crusade. It also looks to be a further assertion of power by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, rooting out any opposition within the broader Al Saud ruling family, and ostensibly bolstering his desire for rather radical reform. That said it will only deepen divisions within the royal family, and puts an even higher premium on the need to make his Vision 2030 a success, of which the IPO of Aramco is the cornerstone. Had this happened in Iran, perhaps US and even UK government reaction would have been less nonchalant. But both have literally been begging for the IPO and indeed more 'defence' orders, and as such we should not be surprised that there is such an enormous crisis of confidence in the political fraternity in the western world. There will likely be a great deal of concern among international companies with substantial business interests in Saudi Arabia about the fall-out for them from this purge, and it may also deter some western investors from participating in the Aramco IPO, which in turn would also play into Sino-Russian interests. It will inevitably only serve to heighten Saudi Iranian tensions, with the shock resignation of Lebanese PM Saad Hariri at the weekend having all the hallmarks of Saudi intervention, within the context of the proxy war with Iran. Should the new Lebanese government be more heavily dominated by Hezbollah (closely allied with Iran), the risk of the US imposing quote hefty sanctions on Lebanon should not be underestimated, nor of renewed military conflict with Israel, both of which would potentially have very damaging consequences for Lebanon's economy. For markets, it will be a case of the potential for fall-out in some of the stocks that Prince Al Waleed has large stakes in such as Citicorp, Twitter and Apple.
In addition, Trump will apparently be meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the APEC meeting at the end of the week. Some are suggesting that Trump may seek Putin's help in respect of North Korea, but this seems improbable, in so far as the Chinese leadership have made it very clear that Russia does not have a role to play, and indeed a very weak hand in foreign policy terms in Asia. However the fact remains that both in the case of Iran and indeed North Korea, it is Russian technology that has facilitated the development of their various nuclear facilities, a fact which Trump will more than likely be keen to explore, even if Congress seems unlikely to back him in any shape or form, were he to offer some form of 'quid pro quo'.
Last but not least, the "Panama Papers" have been quickly forgotten, but in the fevered climate that currently surrounds the broader so-called elite, and with western political classes displaying an intellectual and moral bankruptcy that reaches for the stars, the 'Paradise Papers' will surely be grist to the mill for the world's Bolsheviks
A couple of points to note in the commodity space, Iron Ore is threatening a break out of the sideways 'bottoming out' trading range of recent months, while on WTI there are two attached charts to ponder, short-term chart says WTI v overbought, but as @chigrl points out on the long-term chart, there is a 2015 gap to fill up to 56.50.
* RECAP * (updated with Corp Earnings) The Week Ahead - Preview: 6 to 10 November 2017
- Largely due to the way that the calendar falls in November, this week's statistical schedule is not particularly burdensome, which will likely put the focus even more on political and policy events, perhaps above all Trump's trip to Asia and Brexit related developments.
- Statistically you know that "it's a nothing week" in the USA, when the data highlights are JOLTs Job Openings and preliminary Michigan Sentiment. China therefore gets top billing via way of Trade, CPI and PPI. The UK and Eurozone have a rather busier schedule with (national) Industrial Production and Trade data featuring heavily. Germany has Factory Orders, which also feature in Japan along with Labour Cash Earnings, while the UK also sees BRC Retail Sales, Construction Output and the RICS survey. Monday also brings the remaining Services PMIs in Japan and Europe.
- Politically Trump embarks on a marathon trip around Asia, which takes in China mid-week, with the focus on North Korea and South China Sea tensions, as well as vast array of bilateral trade issues. For the UK, a new round of Brexit related negotiations begins, which will certainly be critical in determining whether the December EU summit can opt to open broader, second round negotiations on the UK's trade and other relationships with the EU post Brexit. There would appear to be some movement on the so-called Brexit 'exit bill', and indeed UK and EU citizens' rights post Brexit, however the thorny issue of Northern Ireland appears to be a major stumbling block, with the relationship between the Westminster and Dublin governments at its worst for a number of decades. Equally problematic are the chasm that has opened up over the regional govt in Northern Ireland, with Sinn Fein and the DUP seemingly a world apart in terms of being able to form a regional govt, and the UK government very vulnerable due to its dependence on the DUP to pass legislation in Westminster. Indeed with the run of allegations of inappropriate behaviour engulfing parliament, the UK government appears to be doing little more than fire-fighting on multiple fronts, which in itself hardly bodes well for the Brexit negotiation process. There are also EcoFin and Euro group finance ministers meetings, which among other topics are set to discuss banking union and the fiscal rules for European Monetary Union, though material progress on these seems unlikely until a new German coalition government is formed.
- In central bank terms, Australia's RBA and New Zealand's RBNZ are both expected to keep policy rates on hold at 1.50% and 1.75% respectively, and will doubtless stick to signalling that rate hikes are still a fairly distant prospect, with the RBNZ also waiting to see how its operating parameters will be changed by the new government. Dudley and Draghi top a quite busy week for Fed and above all ECB speakers, and it will be a busy week for policy decisions in non-Eurozone Europe, Asia and EM countries. None of the latter are expected to see any policy rate changes, however there will be particular interest in the Polish and Romanian central bank decisions, given the relatively hawkish tone struck by the Czech National Bank last week. That said Poland's NBP has been resolute in arguing that with inflation well contained around target, it does not see any reason to hike rates near term, despite the strength of the economy, rapidly falling unemployment and robust real wage growth. Romania's BNR has also resisted pressure to tighten policy, and faces the dilemma that with the fiscal side of the equation seemingly careering out of control, with govt spending rising rapidly (and thus fuelling the economic boom) and tax revenues falling sharply as a proportion of GDP, the risk of an economic derailment is escalating. Given Powell's nomination as Fed chair and his endorsement of some rollback of post-GFC regulation, the also recently confirmed Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Quarles' speech at the Clearing House annual conference will clearly demand some attention.
- Govt bond supply sees the US quarterly refunding with 3, 10 & 30-yr Treasuries, while a modest run in the Eurozone has Germany selling 5-yr and a 'tiddler' auction of 2030 inflation linked Bunds, while Austria sells 5 & 10-yr, and the UK re-opens the 2023 Gilt. However it is woe stricken and debt laden Venezuela which will attract more attention, following President Maduro's announcement of a debt restructuring - for some background, this Alphaville post is worth re-reading https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10...he-coming-need-for-a-standstill-in-venezuela/ along with
this FT article: https://www.ft.com/content/56de9ebe-c05f-11e7-b8a3-38a6e068f464
- The Q3 Corporate Earnings starts to wind down in the US, though overall it will still be quite a busy week, featuring amongst others: Adecco, Adidas, Allianz, ArcelorMittal, AstraZeneca, BMW, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Enel, Intesa Sanpaolo, Kohl's, Macy's, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Munich Re, Nordstrom, Pirelli, Siemens, Snap, Toyota Motor, Walt Disney and Zurich Insurance.
- In the energy space, OPEC's World Oil Outlook and the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook will as ever garner plenty of attention, particularly any revisions to the supply and demand outlook for 2018, as the OPEC/Non-OPEC production cap agreement appears likely to be extended, given that the inventory overhang looks likely to persist well into 2018. In the longer run, and given the context of this week's COP23 Climate Summit in Bonn, there will be even greater challenges, as per this Cleantechnica article "Shifting Tides Could Strand 25% Of Global Oil Refining Capacity By 2035" https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/0...il-refining-capacity-2035/?platform=hootsuite
from Marc Ostwald
Moneylender
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Having another stab at 13450, there now!
Long?
Moneylender
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C
cantagril
Morning all,
Having missed the last move up on EG have just taken a small long (1L) at .8861 looking for .8890 ish
Having missed the last move up on EG have just taken a small long (1L) at .8861 looking for .8890 ish
C
cantagril
Morning all,
Having missed the last move up on EG have just taken a small long (1L) at .8861 looking for .8890 ish
Now, what were you saying about silly longs ML?
Moneylender
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Now, what were you saying about silly longs ML?
I didn't expect anything different from you.
C
cantagril
I didn't expect anything different from you.
Meeeaow! Hand that girl a bowl of cream
Dentalfloss
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dax
minor downtrend broken
its lookin for supp
minor downtrend broken
its lookin for supp
Dentalfloss
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our 13476 area we markd last week is workin well
will our 13450 supp we marked at weekend,,,hold.??
will our 13450 supp we marked at weekend,,,hold.??
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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yes sir
