Dentalfloss
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13030 and bounce for a few
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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You were 2 points shy.. I'm disappointed lol
Dentalfloss
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still movin up
luvin it
our 23156 was out....
luvin it
our 23156 was out....
Dentalfloss
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23165 and a spike...then it broke out again
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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bad news for bears
the only thing they might get is correction from overbought
no sign of a turn as yet
more later...if the correction gets nasty
lets see what happens
the only thing they might get is correction from overbought
no sign of a turn as yet
more later...if the correction gets nasty
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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first supp on Dow is 23140 area
testing it now
ditto dax 13030....in that area now
testing it now
ditto dax 13030....in that area now
Moneylender
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Morning all
This bear is hibernating
This bear is hibernating
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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in supp now 1.3175-1.3192
that trend rez is 1.3220 to 1.3250 area
that trend rez is 1.3220 to 1.3250 area
Dentalfloss
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13030...and bounce for a few
C
cantagril
Morning all
Got stopped out yesterday arvo -25
In again at 1.2455 this morgen
Missed the p/b on EURGBP yesterday as well so that was a further 50 pips that I didn't get.
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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- Digesting China, Australia and Japan data, as politics and UK Retail Sales
dominates schedule on 30th anniversary of Black Monday; US Claims & Philly
Fed, Corporate Earnings and bond auctions in Spain, France, UK and US
also feature
- China Q3 GDP, monthly data: GDP bang in line with forecasts, as Services,
Govt spending and inventory build offset drag from FAI, credit curbs
and deleveraging push; given headwinds quite impressive
- UK Retail Sales: marginal dip after August jump expected, BRC and CPI
data imply some downside risks
- Charts: JPM EMBI spread and US High Yield spread vs US 10 Yr
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A much busier day beckons on all fronts, on this the 30 year anniversary of 1987's Black Monday stock crash, though whether this really injects some life into soporific financial markets remains dubious. Statistically, there are the array of China Q3 GDP and monthly activity data, Japanese Trade and Australian Unemployment to digest. Ahead lie UK Retail Sales, US weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey. On the auction front, France and Spain have multi-maturity auctions, the UK sells 10-yr and the US re-opens its 30-yr TIPS benchmark. Politically, all eyes will be on the EU leaders summit, which will have gridlocked Brexit negotiations at the top of the agenda, and of course on the stand-off in Spain over the Catalonian independence bid, as another deadline looms. Sources yesterday suggested that Rajoy is considering giving Puigdemont another week, given that this will be the length of time it will take to implement Article 155 to suspend home rule in Catalonia in the Spanish Senate. That said, there are still no signs that either side is willing to give any ground whatsoever. On the policy front, policy rates are expected to be left unchanged in Chile, Indonesia and Israel, mirroring a similar decision in South Korea (which also saw the BOK upgrade some of its growth forecasts), while KC Fed's arch hawk Esther George is the only scheduled central bank speaker. Last but not least, another busy day for corporate earnings sees SAP and Unilever headline in Europe, while BoNY Mellon, Blackstone, Paypal, Philip Morris and Verizon feature in the US. This being the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, the attached charts of the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index spread and the US High Yield spread over 10-yr Treasuries underline how similar the levels of complacency are now to then, even if the monetary policy backdrop could not be more different.
** China - Q3 GDP, FAI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales **
- Despite PBOC Zhou's comments talking about H2 2017 GDP being possibly as high as 7.0%, Q3 GDP was bang in line with forecasts at an unchanged (vs Q2) 1.7% q/q and 6.8% y/y vs. Q2 6.9%. For all that this will have marginally disappointed many in financial markets, it should be added that this is still well above the regime's 6.5% target/estimate for 2017, and comes despite the hefty curbs on investment in the industrial and property sectors. Property Sales finally showed some signs of slowing in response to the curbs, and while govt spending on infrastructure and some inventory building were key contributors to growth, it is also increasingly obvious that the Services sector (particularly the tech sector) is increasingly becoming a, if not the, primary driver of growth, i.e. signalling that the economy is actually rebalancing. Monthly indicators were mixed, though Industrial Production posted a healthy rebound, as did Retail Sales, while FAI unsurprisingly showed further evidence that the curbs on credit continue to drag on Private Investment, while Power Generation at 5.3% y/y implies a solid pace of expansion. Comments from various PBOC and regulatory officials at the ongoing CPC underline that there is no sign of any let up any time soon on these curbs, and the overall deleveraging efforts, which suggests that Zhou's 7.0% GDP chatter looks to be rather overambitious. However given these headwinds, the performance of the economy (taking the data at face value, the wisdom of which is very much open to debate) is all the more impressive.
** U.K. - September Retail Sales **
- Thus far the week's UK data has been so close to expectations that it has done little to impact rate expectations, or indeed inspire much reaction in UK asset prices, with the weakness in the GBP attributable more to a combination of Brexit 'deadlock' concerns, and the USD recovery. Today's Retail Sales have, in theory, a higher probability of producing a surprise outcome, particularly given the series record of producing outliers, as was the case with the much stronger than forecast August reading. The consensus looks for a 0.1% m/m drop in the headline measure and a -0.2% m/m ex-Auto Fuel, which implies a drop in y/y rates to 2.2% from 2.8% and 2.1% from 2.4% respectively, and would also see the trend 3mth/3mth headline rate dip to around 0.9% from 1.2%. The latter would hardly be calamitous, even if it would be to the bottom end of the range in recent months (0.6% to 1.5%). The risks are however to the downside, in so far as the 'strength' in the BRC's Retail Sales was identified very specifically as being food and clothing prices related, and as we know from Tuesday's CPI, these both saw strong gains (0.8% and 3.9% m/m respectively), which will in turn put downward pressure on sales, as the official measure is a volume, rather than a value measure (like the BRC measure).
from Marc Ostwald
dominates schedule on 30th anniversary of Black Monday; US Claims & Philly
Fed, Corporate Earnings and bond auctions in Spain, France, UK and US
also feature
- China Q3 GDP, monthly data: GDP bang in line with forecasts, as Services,
Govt spending and inventory build offset drag from FAI, credit curbs
and deleveraging push; given headwinds quite impressive
- UK Retail Sales: marginal dip after August jump expected, BRC and CPI
data imply some downside risks
- Charts: JPM EMBI spread and US High Yield spread vs US 10 Yr
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A much busier day beckons on all fronts, on this the 30 year anniversary of 1987's Black Monday stock crash, though whether this really injects some life into soporific financial markets remains dubious. Statistically, there are the array of China Q3 GDP and monthly activity data, Japanese Trade and Australian Unemployment to digest. Ahead lie UK Retail Sales, US weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey. On the auction front, France and Spain have multi-maturity auctions, the UK sells 10-yr and the US re-opens its 30-yr TIPS benchmark. Politically, all eyes will be on the EU leaders summit, which will have gridlocked Brexit negotiations at the top of the agenda, and of course on the stand-off in Spain over the Catalonian independence bid, as another deadline looms. Sources yesterday suggested that Rajoy is considering giving Puigdemont another week, given that this will be the length of time it will take to implement Article 155 to suspend home rule in Catalonia in the Spanish Senate. That said, there are still no signs that either side is willing to give any ground whatsoever. On the policy front, policy rates are expected to be left unchanged in Chile, Indonesia and Israel, mirroring a similar decision in South Korea (which also saw the BOK upgrade some of its growth forecasts), while KC Fed's arch hawk Esther George is the only scheduled central bank speaker. Last but not least, another busy day for corporate earnings sees SAP and Unilever headline in Europe, while BoNY Mellon, Blackstone, Paypal, Philip Morris and Verizon feature in the US. This being the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, the attached charts of the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index spread and the US High Yield spread over 10-yr Treasuries underline how similar the levels of complacency are now to then, even if the monetary policy backdrop could not be more different.
** China - Q3 GDP, FAI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales **
- Despite PBOC Zhou's comments talking about H2 2017 GDP being possibly as high as 7.0%, Q3 GDP was bang in line with forecasts at an unchanged (vs Q2) 1.7% q/q and 6.8% y/y vs. Q2 6.9%. For all that this will have marginally disappointed many in financial markets, it should be added that this is still well above the regime's 6.5% target/estimate for 2017, and comes despite the hefty curbs on investment in the industrial and property sectors. Property Sales finally showed some signs of slowing in response to the curbs, and while govt spending on infrastructure and some inventory building were key contributors to growth, it is also increasingly obvious that the Services sector (particularly the tech sector) is increasingly becoming a, if not the, primary driver of growth, i.e. signalling that the economy is actually rebalancing. Monthly indicators were mixed, though Industrial Production posted a healthy rebound, as did Retail Sales, while FAI unsurprisingly showed further evidence that the curbs on credit continue to drag on Private Investment, while Power Generation at 5.3% y/y implies a solid pace of expansion. Comments from various PBOC and regulatory officials at the ongoing CPC underline that there is no sign of any let up any time soon on these curbs, and the overall deleveraging efforts, which suggests that Zhou's 7.0% GDP chatter looks to be rather overambitious. However given these headwinds, the performance of the economy (taking the data at face value, the wisdom of which is very much open to debate) is all the more impressive.
** U.K. - September Retail Sales **
- Thus far the week's UK data has been so close to expectations that it has done little to impact rate expectations, or indeed inspire much reaction in UK asset prices, with the weakness in the GBP attributable more to a combination of Brexit 'deadlock' concerns, and the USD recovery. Today's Retail Sales have, in theory, a higher probability of producing a surprise outcome, particularly given the series record of producing outliers, as was the case with the much stronger than forecast August reading. The consensus looks for a 0.1% m/m drop in the headline measure and a -0.2% m/m ex-Auto Fuel, which implies a drop in y/y rates to 2.2% from 2.8% and 2.1% from 2.4% respectively, and would also see the trend 3mth/3mth headline rate dip to around 0.9% from 1.2%. The latter would hardly be calamitous, even if it would be to the bottom end of the range in recent months (0.6% to 1.5%). The risks are however to the downside, in so far as the 'strength' in the BRC's Retail Sales was identified very specifically as being food and clothing prices related, and as we know from Tuesday's CPI, these both saw strong gains (0.8% and 3.9% m/m respectively), which will in turn put downward pressure on sales, as the official measure is a volume, rather than a value measure (like the BRC measure).
from Marc Ostwald
Moneylender
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Closed yesterdays mistake for a few pips and a load more of grey hair!!
