Trading with point and figure

canta"s eurgbp

in our 0.8920 pop zone

there is another rez area at 0.8942..ish


supp 0.8900 , 0.8880
and poss 0.8860
 
dentist007 said:
Mornin Canta
Click to expand...

Ya got me- I woz lurkin....and a very Good Morning to you and the rest of the happy few!

Been mulling over EG (for a change!) and have decided to wait for a modest p/b before a long towards .8940/50.

In the meantime, long USDCAD at 1.25 target 1.2550 ish

I'll post a chart for you to shred in a couple of mins:)
 
dow jones internet sector is in a p/d area
healthcare has broken out
Trump tax reforms and healthcare bill driving marrkets
apple also...Applle for a p/d in 160 area retest
 
- Digesting Xi speech at China CPC, awaiting South Africa CPI, UK labour
data, US Housing Starts, Fed Beige Book and ECB/Fed speakers; more
Q3 corporate earnings, EIA oil inventories and German 30-yr sale

- UK labour data: labour demand seen remaining robust, but wages expected
to remain subdued in nominal terms, very negative in real terms

- UK MPC testimony: Carney somewhat equivocal, Tenreyro modest hawkish
lean, Ramsden somewhat dovish

- US Housing Starts: forecasts look agnostic, Building Permits in focus in
terms of post hurricane impact

- Fed's Fischer valedictory: a chance for a last blast against rolling
back post-GFC regulatory changes

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

For financial markets that respond to little or nothing, which does not scream 'buy the dip', with anything more than a knee-jerk blip that reverts to 'as you were', today's schedule of data and events may prompt little more than a 'whatever'. Statistically there is South African CPI (seen little changed and relatively subdued), UK Unemployment and Average Earnings, US Housing Starts, the monthly run of activity metrics in Poland, and Brazilian monthly GDP. The events schedule carries rather more weight with the opening speech from Chinese President Xi at the 19th Communist Party Congress to digest, which in truth contained few surprises with the emphasis on further economic reforms, anti-graft and gradually opening China's Capital account, while elsewhere there are ECB speakers, the Fed's Beige Book, and what will be a valedictory speech from Fed vice chairman Fischer. In respect of the latter, it will be interesting to see if he launches a final broadside against rolling back post GFC regulations, which would in effect underline why he resigned early from the Fed. The US Q3 earnings features Alcoa, Amex and eBay amongst others. Govt bond supply has the usual micro-sized EUR 1.0 Bln top-up of the new German 30-yr.

** U.K. - Aug/Sept labour data **
- Yesterday's inflation data was largely as expected, and the testimony from the new MPC members and BOE governor Carney was of greater significance, at the margin. That is in so far as Carney was once again at his equivocating best (aka 'unreliable boyfriend), noting that he expected to have to write an 'overshoot' letter to the Chancellor when October's CPI is published, though noting that the MPC expected October to be the peak in the current up cycle, and then emphasizing that there remained a delicate balance to be struck between hitting the inflation target, and on the other hand ensuring that monetary policy supported the economy in growth and employment terms. The 'newbies' clearly stand on opposing sides of the hawk/dove spectrum, with Tenreyro effectively suggesting that she would be likely to vote for a hike, if indicators were in line with current forecasts, while Ramsden explicitly noted that against the current backdrop, he would not support a rate hike (if he had been at the previous meeting). Today's data will have to spring some surprises to materially chance market views, with the Unemployment Rate seen nailed to a 40 plus year low of 4.3%, Employment expected to post a solid 150K gain (though the composition of full, part and self-employment will as ever be key). As ever the Average Weekly Earnings will be key, with no change seen in headline terms at a still very lowly 2.1% y/y, while the 'core' ex-Bonus measure is forecast to dip to 2.0% from 2.1%, which will leave real earnings deep in negative territory, leave plenty of room for doubt on whether wages are turning or have turned a corner as some MPC members have claimed, and certainly beg the question on the need for, or the wisdom of a rate hike.

** U.S.A. - Sept Housing Starts, Fed Beige Book **
- After yesterday's much better than expected NAHB Housing Index (68 vs. 64), the focus turns to the ever volatile Housing Starts, which will doubtless see some impact from the hurricanes, though this may well be rather more evident in the Building Permits, the latter to some extent contingent on how long it takes to clear the destruction wreaked by the storms. Be that as it may, Housing Starts are projected to be little changed (-0.4% m/m) at a 1.175 Mln SAAR pace, very close to the 1-yr average, per se probably indicative of a degree of agnosticism in the forecasting fraternity. Residential reconstruction should certainly make a strong contribution to Q4 GDP. As for the Fed's Beige Book (prior edition can be found here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook201709.htm), it will doubtless stick to the standard formulation that economic activity continued to expand at 'a modest to moderate pace', though there will obviously be regions where the impact of the hurricanes features heavily. Of particular interest will be the extent to which it corroborates survey evidence that the impact of the hurricanes was very much transitory, and that underlying momentum remains robust. The other key element will be the degree to which the hurricane has pressured prices for raw materials and indeed wages (due to skilled labour shortages) in affected areas, and the extent to which this is expected to be transitory, or something of a 'straw that broke the camel's back' given extant pre-hurricane pressures.


from Marc Ostwald
 
cantagril said:
Ya got me- I woz lurkin....and a very Good Morning to you and the rest of the happy few!

Been mulling over EG (for a change!) and have decided to wait for a modest p/b before a long towards .8940/50.

In the meantime, long USDCAD at 1.25 target 1.2550 ish

I'll post a chart for you to shred in a couple of mins:)
Click to expand...

Looking at 1.2560 as rez.
 

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