Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Moneylender
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Neither have them available on mobile, I just prefer Cute having used them now for 2 years. I find both IG and CMC to be unstable as far as the scaling is concerned and no grid lines either, it just makes it less efficient in my view.
Is IG part of the pro-realtime charts package?
Moneylender
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I dont use IG anymore, sorry
Dentalfloss
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Moneylender
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Morning all
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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eurusd should be decent in next few days..market needs to assess whether its a dead cat bounce..lol
Moneylender
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Dax thinks it is.
Moneylender
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We have a new viewer, welcome Psyza.
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Have just closed a long @ 12730 hedge, not sure if that was the correct decision!
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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posted at 7.28am yesterday
Moneylender
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Moneylender
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12750 resistance then!
Is this just the web browser on an android tablet?
Dentalfloss
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much easier on my new laptop
i-7
16gig ram
very light
long battery life
really pleased with it
i-7
16gig ram
very light
long battery life
really pleased with it
Dentalfloss
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ftse in rez 7351-7362 area
7347 pivot
7347 pivot
Dentalfloss
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- Busy day for data to end the month/quarter, digesting Japan run ahead of
Eurozone CPI, UK Consumer Credit, final Q2 GDP, Q2 Current Account
& Index of Services, while US sees PCE and Chicago PMI, and Canada monthly
GDP; Harker the sole Fed speaker, BoE conference and BanColombia seen
pausing
- Eurozone CPI: core seen remaining subdued, headline edging higher;
national readings suggest consensus forecast reasonable, though German
state CPI readings leave questions
- UK Consumer Credit: modest nominal uptick seen, echoing Retail Sales,
yr/yr growth in focus, still a world apart from being sustainable
- UK Index of Services: expected to decelerate in mth/mth terms, but post
solid 3-mth gain
- US Personal Income/PCE: forecasts in line with Wages, Retail Sales and
CPI; unlikely big miss needed to dislodge FOMC majority rate trajectory
- Charts: VIX, MOVE Treasury Volatility, WTI, USD TWI, US HY spread to 10yr
and JPM EMBI spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Another quarter concludes, which will as ever serve to constrain trading activities, particularly given next week's week long holiday in China. For all that there has been a lot of chatter about recent market moves, it has to be said that outside of the commodity complex, the chatter amounts to much ado about nothing, given tight credit spreads, super low equity volatility, with the rise in bond volatility as measured by the MOVE index still a far cry from levels seen earlier in the year, let along historically; however Q4 will probably be rather less subdued. The data schedule is jam packed, as is typical for the end of the month, but will need to throw up some large surprises to have more than a passing impact. On the to digest menu are the run of Japan inflation and activity metrics, which showed inflation continues to edge higher but remains far removed from the BOJ's 2.0% target, and while Industrial Production is picking up, household spending remains weak, continuing to be constrained by weak growth. Ahead lie German Unemployment and a rash of UK indicators, with the focus on lending metrics, the Q2 Current Account and July's Index of Services. These are followed by the advance estimates of Eurozone headline and core CPI, Canadian monthly GDP (rather more sensitive given Mr Poloz's shift to a less hawkish tone mid-week), while the US has Personal Income, PCE and the Chicago PMI. The policy event schedule has the second day of the BOE conference, which Draghi no longer be speaking at due to family matters, thus leaving it ostensibly short of a potential market mover. In Fed speak terms, there is the neutral to slightly hawkish Mr Hawker, while in Colombia the central bank is expected to hold rates at 5.25%, pausing the cycle of seven consecutive cuts, in no small part pre-empting an expected uptick in CPI inflation in coming months, with next week's headline CPI seen rising to 4.1% y/y from August's 3.9%, with core CPI still looking rather sticky at 4.8% y/y (August).
** U.K. - Q2 Current Account, July Index of Services & August Consumer Credit **
- The UK Current Account deficit has shown some signs of improvement in recent quarters, though it remains very wide by comparison to its peer group, with the Q2 reading seen narrowing marginally to £-15.9 Bln from Q1 £-16.9 Bln, though as ever the risk of substantial revisions should be borne in mind. It may have been an item whose very adverse trend has been largely ignored by markets over recent years, but there will likely be greater sensitivity going forward, as the UK uncouples from the EU. Consumer Credit has finally started to slow, but July's 9.8% y/y pace was still far too high relative to wage growth, and August is expected to see a higher nominal level at £1.4 Bln vs. July's £1.2 Bln, unsurprising given the already reported strength in Retail Sales (which was also echoed in the VAT receipts component of the PSNB). Last but certainly not least, July's Index of Services offers the first indication on how this key sector of the UK economy performed in the first month of Q3, with a very modest 0.1% m/m seen, perhaps something of a mean reversion after June's 0.4%, the key 3-mth/3-mth metric is forecast to pick up to 0.7% q/q from June's 0.5%.
** Eurozone - September CPI **
- Yesterday's German CPI (0.1% m/m 1.8%) & HICP (Flat m/m 1.8% y/y) were rather out of kilter with the state readings, which saw rises of 0.2% m/m in four states and 0.3% m/m in Hessen, offset by the heavily weighted (in index terms) 0.1% m/m in NRW, these may well be revised higher. Be that as it may, the combination of slightly lower than expected German, as expected Spanish and slightly higher than expected French HICP do not offer any reasons to question the consensus forecast of a marginal uptick in headline Eurozone CPI to 1.6% y/y from 1.5%, and an unchanged 1.2% y/y for core CPI. While the latter has picked up in recent months, and the core-core CPI measure even more so (1.4%), it is still struggling to display a convincing uptrend.
** U.S.A. - Aug Personal Income/PCE and Sept Chicago PMI **
- Personal Income (median 0.2% m/m) and PCE (0.1% m/m) are expected to echo the average earnings and retail sales data, and the focus will inevitably be on the accompanying PCE deflators, where the consensus looks for the headline deflator to be slightly weaker in m/m terms at 0.3% than the 0.4% m/m rise in CPI, and thus show a more muted rise in y/y terms to 1.5% from 1.4%; the core measure is seen up 0.2% m/m leaving the y/y rate unchanged at a 19-month low of 1.4%. However with the FOMC majority sticking to the line that they continue to look through the 'mysterious' recent deceleration in inflation, and continue to hint that a further rate increase is likely in December, today's readings will have to see what looks to be an unlikely miss to change the Fed's view.
from Marc Ostwald
Eurozone CPI, UK Consumer Credit, final Q2 GDP, Q2 Current Account
& Index of Services, while US sees PCE and Chicago PMI, and Canada monthly
GDP; Harker the sole Fed speaker, BoE conference and BanColombia seen
pausing
- Eurozone CPI: core seen remaining subdued, headline edging higher;
national readings suggest consensus forecast reasonable, though German
state CPI readings leave questions
- UK Consumer Credit: modest nominal uptick seen, echoing Retail Sales,
yr/yr growth in focus, still a world apart from being sustainable
- UK Index of Services: expected to decelerate in mth/mth terms, but post
solid 3-mth gain
- US Personal Income/PCE: forecasts in line with Wages, Retail Sales and
CPI; unlikely big miss needed to dislodge FOMC majority rate trajectory
- Charts: VIX, MOVE Treasury Volatility, WTI, USD TWI, US HY spread to 10yr
and JPM EMBI spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Another quarter concludes, which will as ever serve to constrain trading activities, particularly given next week's week long holiday in China. For all that there has been a lot of chatter about recent market moves, it has to be said that outside of the commodity complex, the chatter amounts to much ado about nothing, given tight credit spreads, super low equity volatility, with the rise in bond volatility as measured by the MOVE index still a far cry from levels seen earlier in the year, let along historically; however Q4 will probably be rather less subdued. The data schedule is jam packed, as is typical for the end of the month, but will need to throw up some large surprises to have more than a passing impact. On the to digest menu are the run of Japan inflation and activity metrics, which showed inflation continues to edge higher but remains far removed from the BOJ's 2.0% target, and while Industrial Production is picking up, household spending remains weak, continuing to be constrained by weak growth. Ahead lie German Unemployment and a rash of UK indicators, with the focus on lending metrics, the Q2 Current Account and July's Index of Services. These are followed by the advance estimates of Eurozone headline and core CPI, Canadian monthly GDP (rather more sensitive given Mr Poloz's shift to a less hawkish tone mid-week), while the US has Personal Income, PCE and the Chicago PMI. The policy event schedule has the second day of the BOE conference, which Draghi no longer be speaking at due to family matters, thus leaving it ostensibly short of a potential market mover. In Fed speak terms, there is the neutral to slightly hawkish Mr Hawker, while in Colombia the central bank is expected to hold rates at 5.25%, pausing the cycle of seven consecutive cuts, in no small part pre-empting an expected uptick in CPI inflation in coming months, with next week's headline CPI seen rising to 4.1% y/y from August's 3.9%, with core CPI still looking rather sticky at 4.8% y/y (August).
** U.K. - Q2 Current Account, July Index of Services & August Consumer Credit **
- The UK Current Account deficit has shown some signs of improvement in recent quarters, though it remains very wide by comparison to its peer group, with the Q2 reading seen narrowing marginally to £-15.9 Bln from Q1 £-16.9 Bln, though as ever the risk of substantial revisions should be borne in mind. It may have been an item whose very adverse trend has been largely ignored by markets over recent years, but there will likely be greater sensitivity going forward, as the UK uncouples from the EU. Consumer Credit has finally started to slow, but July's 9.8% y/y pace was still far too high relative to wage growth, and August is expected to see a higher nominal level at £1.4 Bln vs. July's £1.2 Bln, unsurprising given the already reported strength in Retail Sales (which was also echoed in the VAT receipts component of the PSNB). Last but certainly not least, July's Index of Services offers the first indication on how this key sector of the UK economy performed in the first month of Q3, with a very modest 0.1% m/m seen, perhaps something of a mean reversion after June's 0.4%, the key 3-mth/3-mth metric is forecast to pick up to 0.7% q/q from June's 0.5%.
** Eurozone - September CPI **
- Yesterday's German CPI (0.1% m/m 1.8%) & HICP (Flat m/m 1.8% y/y) were rather out of kilter with the state readings, which saw rises of 0.2% m/m in four states and 0.3% m/m in Hessen, offset by the heavily weighted (in index terms) 0.1% m/m in NRW, these may well be revised higher. Be that as it may, the combination of slightly lower than expected German, as expected Spanish and slightly higher than expected French HICP do not offer any reasons to question the consensus forecast of a marginal uptick in headline Eurozone CPI to 1.6% y/y from 1.5%, and an unchanged 1.2% y/y for core CPI. While the latter has picked up in recent months, and the core-core CPI measure even more so (1.4%), it is still struggling to display a convincing uptrend.
** U.S.A. - Aug Personal Income/PCE and Sept Chicago PMI **
- Personal Income (median 0.2% m/m) and PCE (0.1% m/m) are expected to echo the average earnings and retail sales data, and the focus will inevitably be on the accompanying PCE deflators, where the consensus looks for the headline deflator to be slightly weaker in m/m terms at 0.3% than the 0.4% m/m rise in CPI, and thus show a more muted rise in y/y terms to 1.5% from 1.4%; the core measure is seen up 0.2% m/m leaving the y/y rate unchanged at a 19-month low of 1.4%. However with the FOMC majority sticking to the line that they continue to look through the 'mysterious' recent deceleration in inflation, and continue to hint that a further rate increase is likely in December, today's readings will have to see what looks to be an unlikely miss to change the Fed's view.
from Marc Ostwald
