Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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12600 is the red line
that should pump,no matter what the result of election ..maybe as soon as tomorra
12510 is first supp
that should pump,no matter what the result of election ..maybe as soon as tomorra
12510 is first supp
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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eurusd looks like we move higher..no matter what election result or fed
might pullback wit a few cold feet first
lets see what happens
might pullback wit a few cold feet first
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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cable in a p/d area
Dentalfloss
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itd lookin like index go higher..no matter what
eurusd / cable too
could be wrong...lol
eurusd / cable too
could be wrong...lol
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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usdcad in a pivot area
1.2220-1.2240
there now
1.2220-1.2240
there now
Dentalfloss
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oil 51.00 for a p/d
Dentalfloss
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p/b in action...lets see if it gets supported
Dentalfloss
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index gone nowhere
cable...dump
cable...dump
Dentalfloss
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eurusd in supp...lets see what happens
pump or do you mean dump?
12612 is strong rez on my charts...what do you guys think?
Dentalfloss
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Got taken outward we said....index goin up....no matter what
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
late start...overslept
late start...overslept
Dentalfloss
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need to reassess if eurusd and cable will get support
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting FOMC and BoJ, awaiting Norges bank, UK PSNB and US Claims,
Philly Fed and FHFA House Prices; ECB Economic Bulletin, French and
Spanish, US 10-yr TIPS auctions, and Draghi speech
- Norges Bank: on hold and rate trajectory seen unchanged, focus on
reaction to August inflation drop
- BoJ: 'new boy' Kitaoka stakes out position as an activist, majority
continue to signal patience of the essence in achieving elusive CPI
target
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's various policy and political events will inevitably trounce the modest data schedule, which features the UK PSNB (budget), along with a very second division run from the USA - weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing & FHFA House Prices, with the latest Brazilian inflation data as an adjunct. On the events side, there are the Fed and BoJ meetings to digest, while ahead lies the Norwegian rate decision, the generally ignored ECB Economic Bulletin and a speech by Draghi at the ECB's systemic risk conference, that will likely be short on monetary policy 'guidance'. France and Spain offer a variety of govt bond issuance, while the US re-opens its current 10-yr TIPS benchmark. Norges Bank is expected to hold rates today at 0.50%, and the consensus currently sees rates on hold into 2019, and the central bank is not expected to adjust its projected rate path at today's meeting. Of particular note will be what comments are made about the unexpected and sharp dip in both headline CPI (1.3% vs. 1.5% y/y) and underlying CPI (0.9% y/y vs. prior 1.2%) in August, even if other activity indicators continue to remain broadly positive.
** Japan - Post BoJ thoughts **
- "Steady as she goes" was the very clear message from the BoJ, with the only surprise being the dissent by 'new boy' Kitaoka, who argued that the BoJ's current Yield Curve Control (YCC) settings will not be sufficient (i.e. should be lower) to enable CPI to head up towards its highly elusive 2.0% target. The board majority has of course long acknowledged that it will take longer than they had hoped/assumed to reach that target, but Kitaoka has put his marker in the sand as an 'activist'. The board majority continues to suggest that it is ready to ease policy further, if necessary, though markets continue to see this more as underlining that the BoJ is very far from even contemplating an exit from its QQE and YCC policies, rather than a genuine chance of further easing measures. There remains no doubt that the BoJ remains at the bottom of the table of G7 / European central banks in terms of exiting extreme accommodation.
** U.S.A - Post FOMC thoughts **
Overall this was a slightly more hawkish message from the FOMC than had been anticipated, but with the probability of a Dec rate hike now at 64% against 52% ahead of the meeting, this was anything but a shock. Interestingly the Dot Plot for 2017 and 2018 maintained the same median rate path with an unchanged 4 members seeing no Dec rate hole. The fact that the 2020 median rate projection edged lower is largely moot, though it does underline that the FOMC sees the peak in this rate hike cycle at very low levels, and by extension implying that markets will only see a partial escape from low rate financial repression. The statement saw very few and nuanced changes to the economic assessment, while as expected announcing that balance reduction will start in October.
On the economic assessment, there was a marginal upgrade to the business investment view "growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters", while maintaining household spending as growing moderately. There was unsurprisingly the acknowledgement that the hurricanes will have an impact on both activity data and inflation (primarily via energy prices), but these are expected to be transitory. Cleverly Yellen managed to shift the narrative on inflation to acknowledging that the recent dip is/was probably not transitory, but something of a 'mystery', though not in such a way as to deflect them from their current rate trajectory. Eminently it has to be said, that the weakness in the USD over recent months has facilitated the Fed's policy stance. More importantly the Fed has to be congratulated for providing very clear forward guidance, over the past year, even if markets continue to under-price the risk that the Fed sticks to its current rate trajectory, as a seemingly unwavering majority on the committee suggests. Eminently there is a question over how this will evolve in the longer-term with 3 FOMC seats still unfilled (with the nominated Quarles still not confirmed by the Senate), and with a replacement for the departing Fischer also required, let along resolution of who will be running the Fed from next year.
Markets' lack of reaction to the Fed, and the seemingly incessant reach for carry, risk, yield and/or duration smacks of a degree of complacency, which above all in terms of EM local debt highlights a vulnerability to the USD staging a more meaningful rally in Q4. Attention now needs to focus on whether the current attempts to fashion some deals on legislation on Capitol Hill will actually bear some fruit, another risk that appears to be under-priced.
from Marc Ostwald
Philly Fed and FHFA House Prices; ECB Economic Bulletin, French and
Spanish, US 10-yr TIPS auctions, and Draghi speech
- Norges Bank: on hold and rate trajectory seen unchanged, focus on
reaction to August inflation drop
- BoJ: 'new boy' Kitaoka stakes out position as an activist, majority
continue to signal patience of the essence in achieving elusive CPI
target
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's various policy and political events will inevitably trounce the modest data schedule, which features the UK PSNB (budget), along with a very second division run from the USA - weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing & FHFA House Prices, with the latest Brazilian inflation data as an adjunct. On the events side, there are the Fed and BoJ meetings to digest, while ahead lies the Norwegian rate decision, the generally ignored ECB Economic Bulletin and a speech by Draghi at the ECB's systemic risk conference, that will likely be short on monetary policy 'guidance'. France and Spain offer a variety of govt bond issuance, while the US re-opens its current 10-yr TIPS benchmark. Norges Bank is expected to hold rates today at 0.50%, and the consensus currently sees rates on hold into 2019, and the central bank is not expected to adjust its projected rate path at today's meeting. Of particular note will be what comments are made about the unexpected and sharp dip in both headline CPI (1.3% vs. 1.5% y/y) and underlying CPI (0.9% y/y vs. prior 1.2%) in August, even if other activity indicators continue to remain broadly positive.
** Japan - Post BoJ thoughts **
- "Steady as she goes" was the very clear message from the BoJ, with the only surprise being the dissent by 'new boy' Kitaoka, who argued that the BoJ's current Yield Curve Control (YCC) settings will not be sufficient (i.e. should be lower) to enable CPI to head up towards its highly elusive 2.0% target. The board majority has of course long acknowledged that it will take longer than they had hoped/assumed to reach that target, but Kitaoka has put his marker in the sand as an 'activist'. The board majority continues to suggest that it is ready to ease policy further, if necessary, though markets continue to see this more as underlining that the BoJ is very far from even contemplating an exit from its QQE and YCC policies, rather than a genuine chance of further easing measures. There remains no doubt that the BoJ remains at the bottom of the table of G7 / European central banks in terms of exiting extreme accommodation.
** U.S.A - Post FOMC thoughts **
Overall this was a slightly more hawkish message from the FOMC than had been anticipated, but with the probability of a Dec rate hike now at 64% against 52% ahead of the meeting, this was anything but a shock. Interestingly the Dot Plot for 2017 and 2018 maintained the same median rate path with an unchanged 4 members seeing no Dec rate hole. The fact that the 2020 median rate projection edged lower is largely moot, though it does underline that the FOMC sees the peak in this rate hike cycle at very low levels, and by extension implying that markets will only see a partial escape from low rate financial repression. The statement saw very few and nuanced changes to the economic assessment, while as expected announcing that balance reduction will start in October.
On the economic assessment, there was a marginal upgrade to the business investment view "growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters", while maintaining household spending as growing moderately. There was unsurprisingly the acknowledgement that the hurricanes will have an impact on both activity data and inflation (primarily via energy prices), but these are expected to be transitory. Cleverly Yellen managed to shift the narrative on inflation to acknowledging that the recent dip is/was probably not transitory, but something of a 'mystery', though not in such a way as to deflect them from their current rate trajectory. Eminently it has to be said, that the weakness in the USD over recent months has facilitated the Fed's policy stance. More importantly the Fed has to be congratulated for providing very clear forward guidance, over the past year, even if markets continue to under-price the risk that the Fed sticks to its current rate trajectory, as a seemingly unwavering majority on the committee suggests. Eminently there is a question over how this will evolve in the longer-term with 3 FOMC seats still unfilled (with the nominated Quarles still not confirmed by the Senate), and with a replacement for the departing Fischer also required, let along resolution of who will be running the Fed from next year.
Markets' lack of reaction to the Fed, and the seemingly incessant reach for carry, risk, yield and/or duration smacks of a degree of complacency, which above all in terms of EM local debt highlights a vulnerability to the USD staging a more meaningful rally in Q4. Attention now needs to focus on whether the current attempts to fashion some deals on legislation on Capitol Hill will actually bear some fruit, another risk that appears to be under-priced.
from Marc Ostwald
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Morning all, not about much this morning
Dentalfloss
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dax in support
will it hold,?
will it hold,?
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What level is the support
Dentalfloss
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