Trading with point and figure

Asian equity markets traded with a cautious tone as the FOMC draws closer and after the region failed to maintain the early impetus from US
 
dentist007 said:
Canta
eurgbp
.8864-.8872 is prev supp
60 min
8pips
1 rev
hilo
rez area goes up to .8912
Click to expand...

Many Tas. You've earned yr Stella:)

I did look at .8864/8 as a pivot but came to the conclusion that the new trend looks fairly convincing. SL is already at .8847 which is my BE.
 
dow break
 

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- Modest schedule of statistics sees ZEW, US Import Prices and Housing
starts; Hurricane Maria in focus along with Trump UN speech; Hungary
central bank seen implementing further unconventional measures; Polish
activity data seen at very robust levels; API inventories and UK
30yr Gilt sale also due

- US Import Prices: energy and commodity prices seen partially reversing
sharp deceleration since February

- US Housing Starts: choppy sideways trend expected to persist, land
availability in demand hotspots the key headwind

- Charts: USD/CNY spot and UK 30 yr Gilt yield

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Today's schedule is again modest, featuring little more than the final and nowadays largely overlooked leg of the US August inflation readings via way of Import Prices, along with Housing Starts. The progress of Hurricane Maria, now a category 5 hurricane which has already destroyed the Caribbean island of Dominica, will be very closely monitored, as it carves a path that is broadly similar to Irma. Ahead of the US data, the German ZEW survey is expected to see another very solid though marginally lower Current Situation Index at (86.2), while the risks on the fatuous Expectations index look to be to the upside of the projected 12.0 from 10.0, given the solid gains for the DAX with which it is very strongly correlated. While the Polish Zloty and asset prices are currently fixated on political developments, some attention needs to be kept on incoming economic data, with another set of solid employment gains (4.6% y/y) reported yesterday, while today's Industrial Production are projected to remain robust 5.9% y/y, while Construction continues to boom (Exp. 24.0% y/y vs. July 19.8%) and Real Retail Sales at an expected and unchanged 7.1% y/y, highlight strong nominal and real wage growth. Otherwise, Hungary's MNB is seen holding its main policy rate at 0.90%, but is also expected to announce a fresh set of unconventional measures to push term BUBOR rates lower, and by extension weaken the HUF vs. the EUR. There will also be plenty of attention given to Trump's speech at the UN General Assembly in which he has promised to speak in 'tough terms' about North Korea. The UK will also hold an auction of £2.5 Bln its 30-yr benchmark Gilt, which has seen a post-MPC concession carved out, but at 1.9% in yield terms, remains on a negative yield of -1.0%, and, as the attached chart attests, very much well contained in its 2017 trading range. Last but not least, the API oil inventory stats are due this evening with the consensus looking for a 2.9 Mln build in Crude stocks, and draws of 2.0 Mln for Gasoline and 1.2 Mln for Distillates respectively.

** U.S.A. - Aug Import Prices / Housing Starts **
- As with other US inflation indicators, Import Prices have tailed off quite sharply since peaking at 4.7% y/y in February, but as with other measures, a boost from higher energy and other commodity prices in general is expected to bump prices up 0.4% m/m (or 0.2% ex-petroleum products) to push the y/y rate up to 2.2% from July's 1.5%. Of specific note will be trends in finished good prices, which have seen a steady rise in Capital Goods Prices, but little change in consumer or other durable goods, or indeed non-durables. Yesterday's drop in the NAHB Housing Market Index to 64 from 67 was primarily predicated on builders concerns about the impact of the hurricanes on raw materials prices, and indeed on already scarce skilled staff, especially once rebuilding gets underway, rather than any concerns about underlying demand. Today's Housing Starts are forecast to rebound 1.7% m/m to a 1.174 Mln SAAR, but overall indicating a sideways trend at respectable levels, though still falling short of the SAAR pace in Building Permits, which are seen little changed at 1.22 Mln. The key headwind for developers remai


from Marc Ostwald
 
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