Trading with point and figure

dentist007 said:
difficult

not really a crash...just a move down into the 21650-21700 supp area...then a rethink
2 or 3 fake upmoves does not show real strength....thats why we said that the bulls need to show up...lol
Click to expand...

Agree re Dow, but I was asking myself what will Dax do when dow goes down the pan! A lot of Blomberg analysists are saying it will continue up, but personally not sure it will.
 
- UK and Swedish inflation data in focus along with US NFIB & JOLTS Job
Openings; OPEC, EIA & WASDE monthly reports likely to attract more than
usual attention due to hurricanes; ECB Constancio speech, plus govt supply
from Netherlands, Germay & USA

- Sweden CPI: modest setback seen m/m but both headline & core seen above
target yr/yr, big Norway CPI miss implies risks to downside of f'casts

- UK CPI: petrol prices expected to drive prices higher in m/m terms, food
and household goods may also exercise some pressure; RPI seen at 4.0% y/y
for first time in cycle

- Charts: WTI, Metals, US HY Bond spread and ETF, USD/JPY, VIX

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Statistically it is UK inflation data that will take centre stage today, though Swedish CPI will attempt to steal a march, or rather provide a distraction ahead of it; US NFIB Small Business Optimism and the rather historical July JOLTS Job Openings are the other highlights, with Polish core CPI expected to confirm why the NBP is in absolutely no hurry to raise rates, despite the rapid fall in Unemployment and robust pace of GDP growth. ECB's Constancio speech on "monetary policy in non-standard times" will attract much attention, the more so given Friday's post-council meeting, ECB 'sources' balloon floating exercise about the shape and form of the H1 2018 taper. But with Hurricane Irma travelling north in a somewhat less, but nevertheless still destructive form, it may well be the EIA and OPEC monthly oil market and the US WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) reports which catch the eye of a rather broader audience than the usual array of sector participants. The OPEC report is said to show output falling to 30 Mln bbls/day, while tonight's API Oil inventories are expected to show a Crude inventories build of 2.3 Mln, Gasoline down 2.4 Mln & Distillates down 1.7 mln. Govt bond supply 'comes via way of 10-yr Dutch and US 10-yr sales, and the tiny and rare EUR 500 Mln of 30-yr inflation-linked Bunds.

** Sweden - August CPI **
- Following last week's as ever resolutely dovish Riksbank statement and monetary policy report, and July's stronger than expected inflation outturn, the focus turns to August CPI. Both headline and core CPI are expected to slip 0.1% m/m, in line with the pattern of the past 2 years in August, which would see headline CPI unchanged at 2.2% y/y and the newly targeted CPIF slipping to 2.3%, but still clearly above target. As Riksbank's Ingves noted last week, the Riksbank will not be acting either pre-emptively (that horse has surely bolted? Ed.) or precipitously, i.e. until the ECB's plans become clearer. The question then is: if CPIF were higher than expected (again) today, would it be appropriate to rally the SEK? That may prove to be a highly rhetorical question, in so far as yesterday's huge downside miss on Norwegian CPI, which historically has been quite well correlated with Swedish CPI in m/m terms, may point to considerable downside risks for today's report.

** U.K. - August CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS House Prices **
- Last month's downside surprise on CPI was predicated on a big drag from falls in petrol prices and mobile phone charges, which masked upward pressures in Food, Clothing, Household Goods and Utilities, and indeed ignored upside surprises on RPI, which rose unexpectedly. This month is likely to see a big boost from Petrol Prices, which in contrast to July jumped sharply (ca 1.6% m/m, in contrast to an August 2016 fall of 1.3%). The question then is whether any other pipeline pressures exercise an upward push, with Food likely to be a source of some modest pressure, and perhaps durable household goods. On RPI, it is worth nothing that RPIX is seen hitting 4.0% y/y (vs. July 3.9%), its highest level since January 2012, while PPI Input Prices are expected to rebound 1.2% m/m on rises in energy, food and raw materials prices, pushing the y/y rate back up to 7.3%, after a run of sharp declines from January's 19.9% y/y peak; a firmer GBP vs. the USD being more than offset by weakness in the EUR (particularly sensitive for food prices). ONS House Prices have been notable for defying much weaker trends in other house price measures, and indeed easily beating forecasts for a number of months, which may explain in part the consensus forecast of little change at 4.8% from June's 4.9%. Surprises on CPI, and tomorrow's Average Earnings will inevitably be a little more sensitive for the GBP and shorter-dated rates markets given the proximity to what is seen to be the non-event formality of Thursday's MPC announcement.

** U.S.A. - Aug NFIB Small Business Optimism / July JOLTS Job Openings **
- Given the uncertain impact of the hurricanes, it is debatable whether markets will even bother with these two items, though Job Openings should underline continued strength in labour demand, while the NFIB survey is expected to consolidate a sharp rebound in July to 105.2, which suggested the surprise June dip to 103.6 was a modest outlier. The July NFIB survey was of particular note for cyclical peaks in hiring intentions and pricing intentions. As for the JOLTS Job openings, these are expected to slip from a record 6.163 Mln in June to a still very high 6.0 Mln, but there appears to be rather more focus on whether the September Payrolls (for which this is survey week) will perhaps post a negative reading due to the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, even though this would clearly be an obvious outlier, which says precisely nothing about underlying labour market trends.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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