Trading with point and figure

actually ..its 21792 for fakeland
 

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hgad it wrong on Friday afternoon
had the dog area at 21770...it was 21792.......wrong box size
all worked well though
 
- Slightly busier data schedule to distract from US politics and
geopolitical tensions: UK PSNB, German ZEW, US FHFA House Prices &
Richmond Fed surveys and Canada Retail Sales; ECB speak and API
Oil inventories also due

- UK PSNB: very marginal deficit expected due to usual seasonal bump
from corporate tax receipts; underlying improvement starting to stall

- German ZEW: outlier possible on Expectations depending on survey data
collection timing, Current Situation seen edging down, but still
robust by any historical standard; Friday Ifo more important

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The statistical schedule has a little more than Monday to offer, but with all eyes on Jackson Hole and domestic politics, today's run will have to spring some surprises to have anything more than a passing impact. On the agenda are UK PSNB, Germany's ZEW survey, the less than timely Canadian Retail Sales, US FHFA House Prices and Richmond Fed Manufacturing. Outside of these, markets will be focussed on their own internal dynamics, with a rather nervous, if not particularly sour, tone emerging in equity markets, even if in the greater scheme of things the 'correction' thus far can only be described modest, and probably exaggerated by thin summer trade. It is as ever API oil inventories day, with the consensus seeing an eighth consecutive drawdown in Crude Inventories of 3.4 Mln bbls, while Gasoline stocks are seen down by 300K, and Distillates unchanged.

Of the day's data, today's UK PSNB may offer a key signal on this year's overall budget trend, given that July sees the first major payment of corporate taxes. The PSNB has already shown signs of labouring under the burden of higher interest payments due to the rise in inflation (remembering the high proportion of inflation linked national debt) as well as the quirks of timing related to EU payments. Those corporation tax receipts are expected to result in a very marginal £300 Mln deficit for the months, worse than the £201 Mln surplus originally reported in for July 2016, but better than July 2015 £1.5 Bln deficit, though it should be noted both July 2016 and 2015 were eventually revised to show surpluses of £2.45 Bln and £100 Mln respectively.

The German ZEW survey is and has always been rather pointless in so far as the expectations survey correlates very closely with the performance of the Dax since the prior survey, which in this case has been rather weak. A drop to 15.0 is expected vs. July's 17.5 and May's 20.6 2017 high, while the marginally less irrelevant Current Situations is seen at 85.2 vs. July's 86.4.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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