Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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care with that
Dentalfloss
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firtstpivot 12190
then 12155
if the bulls get tested
then 12155
if the bulls get tested
Moneylender
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Closed the last portion of b
Yest long @ 12231. Took the profit but not sure it was the right thing to do!
Yest long @ 12231. Took the profit but not sure it was the right thing to do!
Dentalfloss
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12235-12279 a big wodge of rez
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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closing at 12231..excellent
if you wanted to stay in...then modify stop to tight..in case of upside failure
and,
...
put in OCO for a dump
you are then covered at both orifices
Moneylender
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I was using that long to hedge a very small Dow short I am trapped in @ 21800!
It is very small position and no real concern, but I won't take the loss. Lol
Moneylender
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In fact have re opened the dax long at 11 pips better off, covers the overnight charges!
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting robust German Q2 GDP, awaiting run of UK inflation data,
Sweden CPI, US Retail Sales, NY Fed and NAHB Housing surveys, Business
Inventories; Davis to outline UK Brexit negotiating position, API oil
stocks
- Sweden CPI: seen picking up speed, but Riksbank likely to want more
- UK CPI: seen little changed on month but ticking higher y/y as food,
utilities and other imported goods prices push higher; PPI set to
rise in m/m terms, but slide y/y due to base effects
- US Retail Sales: Autos potentially the wild card, as bounce expected
from disappointing June, core measures expected to post solid gain
- Charts: WTI Oil future, US Dollar Index, VIX future and S&P500 Index
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
If markets were really interested in incoming macroeconomic data, then today would probably be a high watermark, even with the multitude of public holidays in various countries. But as yesterday's 'risk on' move underlined, the only real question is how 'disruptive' markets adopting central bank's asymmetric reaction function evolves into total dysfunctionality, and rather more importantly how long will that take to crystallize. Be that as it may, there is the Q2 German GDP to digest along with the relatively hawkish comments from NY Fed's Dudley ahead of the gamut of UK inflation indicators, while a bumper day for US data has Retail Sales as its focal point, which will likely render the rest of the data - Import Prices, NY Fed Manufacturing, NAHB Housing Market Index, Business Inventories - largely irrelevant, barring an upside surprise on US Retail Sales, and a downside miss or misses elsewhere. Swedish CPI is also due, with relatively strong gains seen on headline 0.3% m/m 1.9% y/y vs 1.7% y/y, and core 0.4% m/m 2.1% y/y vs 1.9% y/y - though the turbo 'inflation nutters' at the Riskbank will doubtless continue to ride roughshod over the patent lack of necessity for negative rates or indeed QE. It is also API weekly crude inventories day, with the question being whether markets focus an expected seventh weekly decline in crude inventories, seen down 3.2 Mln bbls on the week, or whether they look at product stocks, though both Distillates -600K bbls and Gasoline -1.5 mln bbls are seen falling, though that was also the case when Gasoline inventories stocks rose 3.4 Mln. As for German Q2 GDP, an upward revision to Q1 to 0.7% q/q and a drag from net exports meant that Q2 GDP came in slightly below forecasts at a very solid 0.6% q/q (above trend potential rate of 0.4%/0.5%), but beat forecasts in y/y terms at 2.1%. It will likely slow a little in H2, but overall the economy looks to be in fine fettle, and it should be added activity continues to be paced by domestic rather than external demand.
** U.K. - July CPI, RPI, PPI & House Prices **
- If the BoE has done one thing right in the past year, it was to 'look through' the much better than expected June inflation data, which in y/y terms were heftily flattered by base effects, which will unwind with today's July readings. While CPI is expected to be flat m/m and RPI up just 0.1% m/m, CPI would then edge back up to 2.7% in y/y terms and RPI be unchanged at 3.5%. As the BRC noted in its Shop Price Index, food price pressures are starting to crystallize and are the primary source of adverse base effects and incipient pressures, and not just in the UK. Household Energy prices continue to be a further source of upward pressure, though falling mobile phone/internet charges (due to regulation and competition) could provide a considerable offset. On the other hand it is becoming clear that with currency hedges expiring, and against a backdrop of intense competition and wafer thin margins, retailers are having to 'pass on' increases in the cost of imported household goods very quickly. For all that PPI Input Prices are expected to rise 0.4% m/m, mainly due to rising energy and raw materials prices, very benign base effects will ensure another steep fall in the y/y rate to 'just' 6.9% from June's 9.9%. By contrast the pass through from input to output prices has been modest over the past year, and is expected to remain so with a flat headline reading seen and a rise of just 0.1% m/m expected on core, which should help to start lowering CPI towards the end of the year. ONS House Prices have defied indications of a fairly rapid deceleration in other house price inflation measures, though the ONS measure is less 'timely', and is expected to decelerate modestly to 4.3% from 4.7% y/y, with some risk perhaps of a downside surprise after much stronger than expected readings for April and May. Eminently this run of data may well be relegated to an ancillary role, given that Brexit Secretary Davis is set to outline key elements of Britain's negotiating stance on Brexit today.
** U.S.A. - July Retail Sales **
- While Q2 Personal Consumption managed a respectable, if hardly barn storming bounce from Q1 weakness, there was considerable disappointment at the broad based weakness in June (-0.2% m/m headline, -0.1% ex-Autos & Gasoline). The consensus looks for a 0.3% m/m gain on headline and ex-Autos, though a rebound in clothing, prescription drug and some household goods prices is seen boosting the ex-Autos & Gas measure (exp. 0.4% m/m). As previously noted, the steep decline in the CPI Auto price measure (-0.5% m/m) to a surge in incentives and discounts, allied with a tepid SA gain in m/m terms in auto sales, implies some downside risks at the headline level. Of the remaining items on the US data calendar, Import Prices are seen up fractionally and coming after both PPI and CPI are unlikely to garner much attention, unless they post an unexpected fall. Both the NY Fed Manufacturing survey and the NAHB Housing Market Index are forecast to be basically unchanged at 10.0 and 64 respectively, while there will be some interest in June Business Inventories (seen at 0.4% m/m) in terms of what that implies for potential revisions to this component of Q2 GDP.
from Marc Ostwald
Sweden CPI, US Retail Sales, NY Fed and NAHB Housing surveys, Business
Inventories; Davis to outline UK Brexit negotiating position, API oil
stocks
- Sweden CPI: seen picking up speed, but Riksbank likely to want more
- UK CPI: seen little changed on month but ticking higher y/y as food,
utilities and other imported goods prices push higher; PPI set to
rise in m/m terms, but slide y/y due to base effects
- US Retail Sales: Autos potentially the wild card, as bounce expected
from disappointing June, core measures expected to post solid gain
- Charts: WTI Oil future, US Dollar Index, VIX future and S&P500 Index
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
If markets were really interested in incoming macroeconomic data, then today would probably be a high watermark, even with the multitude of public holidays in various countries. But as yesterday's 'risk on' move underlined, the only real question is how 'disruptive' markets adopting central bank's asymmetric reaction function evolves into total dysfunctionality, and rather more importantly how long will that take to crystallize. Be that as it may, there is the Q2 German GDP to digest along with the relatively hawkish comments from NY Fed's Dudley ahead of the gamut of UK inflation indicators, while a bumper day for US data has Retail Sales as its focal point, which will likely render the rest of the data - Import Prices, NY Fed Manufacturing, NAHB Housing Market Index, Business Inventories - largely irrelevant, barring an upside surprise on US Retail Sales, and a downside miss or misses elsewhere. Swedish CPI is also due, with relatively strong gains seen on headline 0.3% m/m 1.9% y/y vs 1.7% y/y, and core 0.4% m/m 2.1% y/y vs 1.9% y/y - though the turbo 'inflation nutters' at the Riskbank will doubtless continue to ride roughshod over the patent lack of necessity for negative rates or indeed QE. It is also API weekly crude inventories day, with the question being whether markets focus an expected seventh weekly decline in crude inventories, seen down 3.2 Mln bbls on the week, or whether they look at product stocks, though both Distillates -600K bbls and Gasoline -1.5 mln bbls are seen falling, though that was also the case when Gasoline inventories stocks rose 3.4 Mln. As for German Q2 GDP, an upward revision to Q1 to 0.7% q/q and a drag from net exports meant that Q2 GDP came in slightly below forecasts at a very solid 0.6% q/q (above trend potential rate of 0.4%/0.5%), but beat forecasts in y/y terms at 2.1%. It will likely slow a little in H2, but overall the economy looks to be in fine fettle, and it should be added activity continues to be paced by domestic rather than external demand.
** U.K. - July CPI, RPI, PPI & House Prices **
- If the BoE has done one thing right in the past year, it was to 'look through' the much better than expected June inflation data, which in y/y terms were heftily flattered by base effects, which will unwind with today's July readings. While CPI is expected to be flat m/m and RPI up just 0.1% m/m, CPI would then edge back up to 2.7% in y/y terms and RPI be unchanged at 3.5%. As the BRC noted in its Shop Price Index, food price pressures are starting to crystallize and are the primary source of adverse base effects and incipient pressures, and not just in the UK. Household Energy prices continue to be a further source of upward pressure, though falling mobile phone/internet charges (due to regulation and competition) could provide a considerable offset. On the other hand it is becoming clear that with currency hedges expiring, and against a backdrop of intense competition and wafer thin margins, retailers are having to 'pass on' increases in the cost of imported household goods very quickly. For all that PPI Input Prices are expected to rise 0.4% m/m, mainly due to rising energy and raw materials prices, very benign base effects will ensure another steep fall in the y/y rate to 'just' 6.9% from June's 9.9%. By contrast the pass through from input to output prices has been modest over the past year, and is expected to remain so with a flat headline reading seen and a rise of just 0.1% m/m expected on core, which should help to start lowering CPI towards the end of the year. ONS House Prices have defied indications of a fairly rapid deceleration in other house price inflation measures, though the ONS measure is less 'timely', and is expected to decelerate modestly to 4.3% from 4.7% y/y, with some risk perhaps of a downside surprise after much stronger than expected readings for April and May. Eminently this run of data may well be relegated to an ancillary role, given that Brexit Secretary Davis is set to outline key elements of Britain's negotiating stance on Brexit today.
** U.S.A. - July Retail Sales **
- While Q2 Personal Consumption managed a respectable, if hardly barn storming bounce from Q1 weakness, there was considerable disappointment at the broad based weakness in June (-0.2% m/m headline, -0.1% ex-Autos & Gasoline). The consensus looks for a 0.3% m/m gain on headline and ex-Autos, though a rebound in clothing, prescription drug and some household goods prices is seen boosting the ex-Autos & Gas measure (exp. 0.4% m/m). As previously noted, the steep decline in the CPI Auto price measure (-0.5% m/m) to a surge in incentives and discounts, allied with a tepid SA gain in m/m terms in auto sales, implies some downside risks at the headline level. Of the remaining items on the US data calendar, Import Prices are seen up fractionally and coming after both PPI and CPI are unlikely to garner much attention, unless they post an unexpected fall. Both the NY Fed Manufacturing survey and the NAHB Housing Market Index are forecast to be basically unchanged at 10.0 and 64 respectively, while there will be some interest in June Business Inventories (seen at 0.4% m/m) in terms of what that implies for potential revisions to this component of Q2 GDP.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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cable now in mega supp
Dentalfloss
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ftse also in supp
Moneylender
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Not much of a Dow bounce considering Korean's deescalation of the rhetoric.
Moneylender
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Dentalfloss
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OCO ..pump or dump 12240
workin well on the dump
workin well on the dump
Dentalfloss
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pump or dump...dead simple...define the orifice
in p/f terms it is a semi-catapult or a failed semi-catapult
Dentalfloss
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downside orifice became apparent when 12228 area started being rez
Dentalfloss
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as well as trend,supp and rez to identify....we must identify the orifices that price could break out from
more important than levels....calling levels is just second rate...imho
more important than levels....calling levels is just second rate...imho
Moneylender
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Does this mean I have to read "that" book again!!!!
