Dentalfloss
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sometimes
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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dax...could be a manipulation....then a pop before earnings
lets see what happens
euro strength could just be a sideline......lol
lets see what happens
euro strength could just be a sideline......lol
Moneylender
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M<y take on DAX for Mon. IT has de coupled from Dow by a fair margin, one of them is wrong!
Moneylender
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Morning all
Moneylender
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Dax dump to 12125, overdone
Dentalfloss
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This bear is here!
C
cantagril
Morning Maestri.
So what are you seeing that makes you bearish and Dentist not? In as much as I have any view at all I'd go with the bullish interpretation.....
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Morning.
Dow is just too high, all mighty crash coming, Trump is u turning all over!
C
cantagril
Absolutely, but as I and most of the world have been consistently wrong (or at least premature, which equals the same thing) I was wondering if, for you, the chart supported that view.
As I said, with the chart on it's own it does look to me as if it's still heading north for the moment.....
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Stop tightened.
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And out
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That was a nice start to the week, just short of my daily target, if I had one!
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Maybe not!
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Dow looks like they want 22k, crazy but you can't fight them
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting Japan Industrial Production, China official PMIs, awaiting UK
credit aggregates, Eurozone Inflation, US Pending Home Sales and Chicago
PMI; oil looking to US announcement on Venezuela sanctions and EIA
monthly production report
- UK Consumer Credit: expected to dip after May surge, Mortgage Lending
volumes seen remaining strong, but Approvals set to dip further
- Eurozone CPI: seen unchanged and still far from displaying sustainable
trend towards target
- Week Ahead: US Labour data, PMIs, Eurozone GDP, German Orders and Japan
Labor Cash Earnings likely to be the highlights
- Week Ahead: all eyes on RBA and BOE, but India, Czech and Romanian
policy meetings also worthy of note
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As July draws to a close, there are is relatively busy schedule of data to digest, kicking off with the overnight Japan Industrial Production and China official NBS PMIs, while ahead lie UK Consumer Credit and Mortgage Lending, Italian and Eurozone CPI, with the US offering the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Japan's Industrial Production was basically in line with forecasts at 1.6% m/m, but a far cry from recouping May's steep 3.6% m/m slide, even if manufacturers are optimistic on July (now seen at +0.8% vs. prior -0.1% estimate, with August expected to surge 3.6% m/m); the underlying trend remains a case of 3 steps forward and 2 back. China's official Manufacturing PMI registered a 12th consecutive month of expanding activity, with a drop in Export Orders (50.9 vs. 52.0) accounting for the headline dip to 51.4 from 51.7, and tallying with the consensus that there will be some loss of momentum in H2 2017. That said, both the Steel PMI, which hit a 15 month high of 54.9 vs. June 54.1, and the Construction PMI that rose to 62.1 from 61.4, suggest domestic demand remains relatively robust, thanks in the main to infrastructure spending. Oil markets will be watching what exactly the US intends to impose in the way of sanctions in response to the Venezuelan constitutional vote, given an extant squeeze on oil product prices due to refiners struggling to source, which a block on Venezuelan imports would only serve to exacerbate. Sources however suggest any sanctions will only apply to US exports to Venezuela, which given the attached chart via TankerTrackers.com is wholly unsurprising.
** U.K. - June Consumer Credit / Mortgage Approvals **
- Given real wage growth is once again negative, the already unsustainable pace of consumer credit growth is increasingly under the microscope, with the consensus looking for Consumer Credit to drop back to £1.5 Bln after an unexpected jump to £1.832 Bln. If that proves to be correct, then the annual pace should drop from May's 10.2% y/y, but still needs to drop very sharply and rapidly, if a crisis is to be avoided. Mortgage Lending is by contrast not expected to dip substantially from a far stronger than forecast £3.5 Bln in May, with the consensus looking for £3.4 Bln, even though Mortgage Approvals are seen dipping to 65.0k, the lowest reading 65.2K. For the time being the BoE appears to be relying on macro-prudential measures to rein in Lending, and will be loath to hike rates to contain borrowing, given the fragile state of consumer spending.
** Eurozone - July CPI **
- Friday's run of national HICP readings were largely as expected, and barring a very substantial surprise from Italy today, the consensus forecasts for headline and core to be unchanged at 1.3% and 1.1% y/yr respectively. Both underline why the ECB is being cautious about its tapering plans, given that neither can be said to be trending sustainably to its target of just below 2.0%.
**
** RECAP - The Week Ahead
- For all that financial markets appear relatively becalmed by the summer holiday season, there is plenty for them to digest this week, with a busy schedule of data, a number of potentially significant central bank policy meetings, and another raft of corporate earnings in the US, Europe and indeed Asia. President Trump's woes and the seemingly endless gridlock on Capitol Hill will continue to cast a long shadow, as will the ongoing Brexit negotiations, which appear to be going nowhere fast at the current juncture.
- It being the start of a new month, the usual run of PMIs will dominate the schedule in the earlier part of the week, along with Eurozone inflation and provisional Q2 GDP GDP, and the week concludes as ever with the statistical behemoth that is the US labour report. The latter is expected to see Payrolls rise by 183K (seemingly the default forecast almost every month at the moment), with the Unemployment Rate is forecast to be unchanged at 4.3%, with Average Hourly Earnings up 0.3% m/m, but dipping in y/y terms to 2.4% from 2.5% due to base effects. US Auto Sales, German Factory Orders, Japanese Industrial Production and Labor Cash Earnings, the increasingly sensitive UK consumer lending metrics accompanied by BRC Shop Prices, US and Canadian Trade and Canadian Unemployment are likely to be the other potential highlights.
- Both Australia's RBA and the Bank of England are universally expected to keep rates on hold this week, and while both are fretting about the level of household debt in their respective economies, they face almost diametrically opposed short-term outlooks. The RBA has spent the past month facing down market chatter about a near-term rate hike, and pointing to still subdued inflation and very modest wage growth as more than sufficient grounds not to respond to a tightening labour market, and a broader based improvement in growth prospects. The dip in the UK June inflation data, and broadening signs of a significant loss of momentum in the economy, in no small part due to Brexit related uncertainties, and notwithstanding the modest pick-up in Q2 GDP, offers the BoE's MPC some breathing space, after the relatively steep rise in consumer prices over the past year, which was threatening to force the BoE's hand on rates. The question then is how it tweaks its inflation and other forecasts in its latest inflation report, given that the June CPI dip was mostly due to benign base effects, but base effects in Q3 are very adverse - per se suggesting that a 'serious discussion' about hiking rates will still be necessary ahead of November's Q4 Inflation Report. As such the BoE will need to be very careful about the signals that it sends this week, particularly in light of the quasi debacle of the past two months. Across the Atlantic there will be a smattering of Fed speak from more hawkishly inclined FOMC members, Mester and Williams (both non-voters this year).
- However it is not just the BoE and RBA that will be in focus this week, but also India's RBI, the Czech National Bank and Romania's BNR, with the RBI seen cutting rates, the CNB instituting a much anticipated move away from the zero bound with a 20 bps hike to a still paltry 0.25%, and the BNR expected to hold at 1.75%. India's RBI finds itself in a relatively enviable position, whereby FDI flows are clearly supporting the INR, which currently has the highest net long among Asian currencies; structural reforms are underway and the Goods and Services Tax is finally in place, both of which should help to shift India's trend growth rate higher. Inflation, as per CPI, is very well contained at 1.54% y/y, which in turn means that real 10-yr yields are just below 5.0%. India's other perennial bug bear, its current account, is also very well contained at just 0.6% of GDP; all of which gives the RBI scope to gently ease rates again. The Czech National Bank should be reasonably satisfied that the removal of the EUR/CZK has not seen the CZK spiralling higher, in no small part aided by the current bout of EUR strength. Market opinions are divided about whether the CNB moves this week or in September, with a small group seeing a hike delayed to Q4, predicated on the idea that there should be greater clarity by then about the ECB's next moves. Still, above target inflation, robust growth, a rapidly tightening labour market pushing wages higher combine to offer plenty of reasons to initiate a move, particularly as it will also have a fresh set of staff economic forecasts to hand. If the CNB does move, then the pressure is likely to mount on a number of other CEE central banks to follow suit, above all Poland and Romania, where both central banks have signalled a strong resistance to hiking rate this year, in part reflecting a belief that the strong inward investment flows which gave a huge boost to Q1 GDP will likely fade, and that the uptick in inflation owed more to energy price base effects, which should also fade in H2 2017. That said, they will also both be very mindful of a difficult political backdrop, which could easily create headwinds for growth and is already producing a deal of uncertainty about the fiscal policy outlook, and as such Romania's BNR will likely stick with a neutral rate stance at this week's meeting.
- Corporate earnings will again be very plentiful, with the focus on the relative performance of European companies to those in the US. Among financials reporting this week are Commerzbank, HSBC, ING, Itau Unibanco, RBS, Societe Generale, AIG, Allianz, AXA, MetLife and Swiss Re, while the auto sector has BMW, Toyota and Tesla. Apple and Sony leads the list of IT and tech companies reporting, while the pharmaceutical sector has Merck KGaA, Pfizer, Sanofi and Stada. A busy week for commodity and energy companies sees BP, Canadian Natural Resources, Duke Energy and Kinross Gold, Rio Tinto reporting, with other major companies reporting including Heineken and Siemens.
-----
* On a completely different note, should you be at a loose end this evening, then why not listen into "The N@ked Short Club" on Resonance (104.4FM in London, on DAB in London and the SouthCoast and worldwide via www.resonancefm.com) from 9-10pm, London time on Monday, July 31st: 1 hour of alternative investments, markets, the economy and wider world, plus heady music, poetry and the delicious products of sponsors, Madoff Ponzi Bier: hosted by Dr. Stu with expert guests: Marc Ostwald - Global Strategist, ADM ISI; Tushar Patel - CIO, HFIM; Stephen Pope - CEO, Spotlight Ideas; Amy Maxwell - Editor, Citywire; plus, by Tantric videolink from the USA, Mike Gasior - CEO, AFS. Also, Special Guests, sculptor and Royal Academician, Michael Sandle and Poet, Carol Dine.
from Marc Ostwald
credit aggregates, Eurozone Inflation, US Pending Home Sales and Chicago
PMI; oil looking to US announcement on Venezuela sanctions and EIA
monthly production report
- UK Consumer Credit: expected to dip after May surge, Mortgage Lending
volumes seen remaining strong, but Approvals set to dip further
- Eurozone CPI: seen unchanged and still far from displaying sustainable
trend towards target
- Week Ahead: US Labour data, PMIs, Eurozone GDP, German Orders and Japan
Labor Cash Earnings likely to be the highlights
- Week Ahead: all eyes on RBA and BOE, but India, Czech and Romanian
policy meetings also worthy of note
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As July draws to a close, there are is relatively busy schedule of data to digest, kicking off with the overnight Japan Industrial Production and China official NBS PMIs, while ahead lie UK Consumer Credit and Mortgage Lending, Italian and Eurozone CPI, with the US offering the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Japan's Industrial Production was basically in line with forecasts at 1.6% m/m, but a far cry from recouping May's steep 3.6% m/m slide, even if manufacturers are optimistic on July (now seen at +0.8% vs. prior -0.1% estimate, with August expected to surge 3.6% m/m); the underlying trend remains a case of 3 steps forward and 2 back. China's official Manufacturing PMI registered a 12th consecutive month of expanding activity, with a drop in Export Orders (50.9 vs. 52.0) accounting for the headline dip to 51.4 from 51.7, and tallying with the consensus that there will be some loss of momentum in H2 2017. That said, both the Steel PMI, which hit a 15 month high of 54.9 vs. June 54.1, and the Construction PMI that rose to 62.1 from 61.4, suggest domestic demand remains relatively robust, thanks in the main to infrastructure spending. Oil markets will be watching what exactly the US intends to impose in the way of sanctions in response to the Venezuelan constitutional vote, given an extant squeeze on oil product prices due to refiners struggling to source, which a block on Venezuelan imports would only serve to exacerbate. Sources however suggest any sanctions will only apply to US exports to Venezuela, which given the attached chart via TankerTrackers.com is wholly unsurprising.
** U.K. - June Consumer Credit / Mortgage Approvals **
- Given real wage growth is once again negative, the already unsustainable pace of consumer credit growth is increasingly under the microscope, with the consensus looking for Consumer Credit to drop back to £1.5 Bln after an unexpected jump to £1.832 Bln. If that proves to be correct, then the annual pace should drop from May's 10.2% y/y, but still needs to drop very sharply and rapidly, if a crisis is to be avoided. Mortgage Lending is by contrast not expected to dip substantially from a far stronger than forecast £3.5 Bln in May, with the consensus looking for £3.4 Bln, even though Mortgage Approvals are seen dipping to 65.0k, the lowest reading 65.2K. For the time being the BoE appears to be relying on macro-prudential measures to rein in Lending, and will be loath to hike rates to contain borrowing, given the fragile state of consumer spending.
** Eurozone - July CPI **
- Friday's run of national HICP readings were largely as expected, and barring a very substantial surprise from Italy today, the consensus forecasts for headline and core to be unchanged at 1.3% and 1.1% y/yr respectively. Both underline why the ECB is being cautious about its tapering plans, given that neither can be said to be trending sustainably to its target of just below 2.0%.
**
** RECAP - The Week Ahead
- For all that financial markets appear relatively becalmed by the summer holiday season, there is plenty for them to digest this week, with a busy schedule of data, a number of potentially significant central bank policy meetings, and another raft of corporate earnings in the US, Europe and indeed Asia. President Trump's woes and the seemingly endless gridlock on Capitol Hill will continue to cast a long shadow, as will the ongoing Brexit negotiations, which appear to be going nowhere fast at the current juncture.
- It being the start of a new month, the usual run of PMIs will dominate the schedule in the earlier part of the week, along with Eurozone inflation and provisional Q2 GDP GDP, and the week concludes as ever with the statistical behemoth that is the US labour report. The latter is expected to see Payrolls rise by 183K (seemingly the default forecast almost every month at the moment), with the Unemployment Rate is forecast to be unchanged at 4.3%, with Average Hourly Earnings up 0.3% m/m, but dipping in y/y terms to 2.4% from 2.5% due to base effects. US Auto Sales, German Factory Orders, Japanese Industrial Production and Labor Cash Earnings, the increasingly sensitive UK consumer lending metrics accompanied by BRC Shop Prices, US and Canadian Trade and Canadian Unemployment are likely to be the other potential highlights.
- Both Australia's RBA and the Bank of England are universally expected to keep rates on hold this week, and while both are fretting about the level of household debt in their respective economies, they face almost diametrically opposed short-term outlooks. The RBA has spent the past month facing down market chatter about a near-term rate hike, and pointing to still subdued inflation and very modest wage growth as more than sufficient grounds not to respond to a tightening labour market, and a broader based improvement in growth prospects. The dip in the UK June inflation data, and broadening signs of a significant loss of momentum in the economy, in no small part due to Brexit related uncertainties, and notwithstanding the modest pick-up in Q2 GDP, offers the BoE's MPC some breathing space, after the relatively steep rise in consumer prices over the past year, which was threatening to force the BoE's hand on rates. The question then is how it tweaks its inflation and other forecasts in its latest inflation report, given that the June CPI dip was mostly due to benign base effects, but base effects in Q3 are very adverse - per se suggesting that a 'serious discussion' about hiking rates will still be necessary ahead of November's Q4 Inflation Report. As such the BoE will need to be very careful about the signals that it sends this week, particularly in light of the quasi debacle of the past two months. Across the Atlantic there will be a smattering of Fed speak from more hawkishly inclined FOMC members, Mester and Williams (both non-voters this year).
- However it is not just the BoE and RBA that will be in focus this week, but also India's RBI, the Czech National Bank and Romania's BNR, with the RBI seen cutting rates, the CNB instituting a much anticipated move away from the zero bound with a 20 bps hike to a still paltry 0.25%, and the BNR expected to hold at 1.75%. India's RBI finds itself in a relatively enviable position, whereby FDI flows are clearly supporting the INR, which currently has the highest net long among Asian currencies; structural reforms are underway and the Goods and Services Tax is finally in place, both of which should help to shift India's trend growth rate higher. Inflation, as per CPI, is very well contained at 1.54% y/y, which in turn means that real 10-yr yields are just below 5.0%. India's other perennial bug bear, its current account, is also very well contained at just 0.6% of GDP; all of which gives the RBI scope to gently ease rates again. The Czech National Bank should be reasonably satisfied that the removal of the EUR/CZK has not seen the CZK spiralling higher, in no small part aided by the current bout of EUR strength. Market opinions are divided about whether the CNB moves this week or in September, with a small group seeing a hike delayed to Q4, predicated on the idea that there should be greater clarity by then about the ECB's next moves. Still, above target inflation, robust growth, a rapidly tightening labour market pushing wages higher combine to offer plenty of reasons to initiate a move, particularly as it will also have a fresh set of staff economic forecasts to hand. If the CNB does move, then the pressure is likely to mount on a number of other CEE central banks to follow suit, above all Poland and Romania, where both central banks have signalled a strong resistance to hiking rate this year, in part reflecting a belief that the strong inward investment flows which gave a huge boost to Q1 GDP will likely fade, and that the uptick in inflation owed more to energy price base effects, which should also fade in H2 2017. That said, they will also both be very mindful of a difficult political backdrop, which could easily create headwinds for growth and is already producing a deal of uncertainty about the fiscal policy outlook, and as such Romania's BNR will likely stick with a neutral rate stance at this week's meeting.
- Corporate earnings will again be very plentiful, with the focus on the relative performance of European companies to those in the US. Among financials reporting this week are Commerzbank, HSBC, ING, Itau Unibanco, RBS, Societe Generale, AIG, Allianz, AXA, MetLife and Swiss Re, while the auto sector has BMW, Toyota and Tesla. Apple and Sony leads the list of IT and tech companies reporting, while the pharmaceutical sector has Merck KGaA, Pfizer, Sanofi and Stada. A busy week for commodity and energy companies sees BP, Canadian Natural Resources, Duke Energy and Kinross Gold, Rio Tinto reporting, with other major companies reporting including Heineken and Siemens.
-----
* On a completely different note, should you be at a loose end this evening, then why not listen into "The N@ked Short Club" on Resonance (104.4FM in London, on DAB in London and the SouthCoast and worldwide via www.resonancefm.com) from 9-10pm, London time on Monday, July 31st: 1 hour of alternative investments, markets, the economy and wider world, plus heady music, poetry and the delicious products of sponsors, Madoff Ponzi Bier: hosted by Dr. Stu with expert guests: Marc Ostwald - Global Strategist, ADM ISI; Tushar Patel - CIO, HFIM; Stephen Pope - CEO, Spotlight Ideas; Amy Maxwell - Editor, Citywire; plus, by Tantric videolink from the USA, Mike Gasior - CEO, AFS. Also, Special Guests, sculptor and Royal Academician, Michael Sandle and Poet, Carol Dine.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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12180 is now a pump or dump
Moneylender
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Well over bought but what do I know!
Dentalfloss
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:smart::smart::smart::smart:
