C
cantagril
Now long at 500
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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- Watchers 90
Now long at 500
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I have been in and out, grabbed a few!
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting surprising 'hawkish' tilt to RBA minutes, latest China financial
sector clampdown measures, awaiting UK inflation run, ZEW and US Import
Prices; ECB Lending survey, US Climate Report and US earnings
- UK CPI: seen little change in y/y terms; upward pressure from food,
utilities and insurance premiums, but petrol and airfares set to act
as large drag
- UK ONS House Prices: set to come down with a bump, re-aligning with other
measures
- Australia rates: RBA perhaps leaving itself hostage to fortune by lowering
neutral rate, though may resurrect AUD strength as counter argument
- Charts: AUD/USD and WTI Oil future
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A relatively compact statistical calendar has a number of potential market movers, even if thin summer trading conditions suggest these will need to surprise to prompt anything more than a brief knee-jerk reaction. On the menu are the gamut of UK inflation readings, Germany's ZEW Survey and US Import Prices and NAHB Housing Market Index, as well as another run of Q2 earnings. In event terms, the ECB's bank lending survey will perhaps be a little more market sensitive than usual, coming as it does ahead of this week's policy meeting, while the US “State of the Climate” report will be of more interest in terms of the various heatwaves and droughts hitting agricultural output around the world this year, rather than any contextual reference to the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. Perhaps the biggest surprise overnight were the minutes of the July RBA policy meeting, which in contrast to a very neutral post meeting statement had a distinctly 'hawkish' tone, emphasizing the many positive developments in the domestic and global economies, and indeed observing that the stronger AUD was appropriate. Where the RBA has left itself hostage to fortune was the discussion about where the 'neutral' rate might lie, with the RBA revising its estimate of the nominal rate to 3.5% (from 5.0%), implying that with headline CPI at 2.1% and core CPI estimates at 1.8% y/y, it would not require much of a uptick in inflation to prompt a rate hike, even if any further strengthening of the AUD would more than likely prompt the RBA to desist. China's latest moves to clamp down on the financial sector also bear some scrutiny, in so far as they may be the trigger for flows out of 'riskier' assets with the summer of 2015 debacle still fresh in most people's memories, even if the authorities would appear to have a rather better understanding and ability to 'control' flows and leverage, and margin debt levels remind subdued. The PBOC in its comments noted "Risks in China's financial market can be controlled, but nonperforming loan risks, liquidity risks, shadow banking risks...property bubble risks (and others) are increasing". See also https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-to-lower-returns-on-wealth-products-j5903t7u
** U.K. - June CPI, RPI, PPI & May House Prices **
- UK CPI is expected to be steady in yr/yr terms at 2.9% y/y, which would leave just inside the BoE's 2.0% +/- 1.0% target range, and by extension avoid the need for Mr Carney to write a letter to the Chancellor, with an August rate hike looking unlikely given weakening growth metrics and very subdued wage growth. Food and in broad terms energy are likely to be the key influences on this month's reading (seen at +0.2% m/m CPI and 0.4% m/m RPI), though in opposite directions. Food price base effects will be adverse through most of the rest of the year, with supermarkets increasingly having to pass through any increases almost immediately, having absorbed much of the GBP related pressures since the Brexit referendum. By contrast, petrol prices fell modestly this June by contrast with a relatively sharp jump in June 2016, and potentially more significantly airfares jumped last year, but have fallen this year. The other wildcard as ever will be seasonal sale discounting, which may well prove to have been rather weaker this year than last given the longer-term pressures from the GBP fall, even if 'bricks and mortar' retailers are fighting tooth and nail to survive with their internet competitors. There may also be some residual pressure from utility prices, as well as some insurance premiums, given news that average car insurance reached a record high in Q2. As for PPI, energy prices and to a lesser extent other raw materials prices will likely be the primary drivers of an expected -0.9% m/m on PPI Input, which would see the y/y rate decelerate to 9.4% from 11.6%; by contrast PPI Output is seen broadly steady (0.1% m/m) on both headline (3.4% y/y) and core (2.8% y/y). After a surprise pick-up in the prior month (5.6% y/y from 4.5%), May ONS House Prices are expected to revert to trending lower, and sharply according to the median estimate of 3.0% y/y, which would be unsurprising in the context of trends in other house price indices, though it would be the smallest increase in this measure since August 2013.
from Marc Ostwald
sector clampdown measures, awaiting UK inflation run, ZEW and US Import
Prices; ECB Lending survey, US Climate Report and US earnings
- UK CPI: seen little change in y/y terms; upward pressure from food,
utilities and insurance premiums, but petrol and airfares set to act
as large drag
- UK ONS House Prices: set to come down with a bump, re-aligning with other
measures
- Australia rates: RBA perhaps leaving itself hostage to fortune by lowering
neutral rate, though may resurrect AUD strength as counter argument
- Charts: AUD/USD and WTI Oil future
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A relatively compact statistical calendar has a number of potential market movers, even if thin summer trading conditions suggest these will need to surprise to prompt anything more than a brief knee-jerk reaction. On the menu are the gamut of UK inflation readings, Germany's ZEW Survey and US Import Prices and NAHB Housing Market Index, as well as another run of Q2 earnings. In event terms, the ECB's bank lending survey will perhaps be a little more market sensitive than usual, coming as it does ahead of this week's policy meeting, while the US “State of the Climate” report will be of more interest in terms of the various heatwaves and droughts hitting agricultural output around the world this year, rather than any contextual reference to the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. Perhaps the biggest surprise overnight were the minutes of the July RBA policy meeting, which in contrast to a very neutral post meeting statement had a distinctly 'hawkish' tone, emphasizing the many positive developments in the domestic and global economies, and indeed observing that the stronger AUD was appropriate. Where the RBA has left itself hostage to fortune was the discussion about where the 'neutral' rate might lie, with the RBA revising its estimate of the nominal rate to 3.5% (from 5.0%), implying that with headline CPI at 2.1% and core CPI estimates at 1.8% y/y, it would not require much of a uptick in inflation to prompt a rate hike, even if any further strengthening of the AUD would more than likely prompt the RBA to desist. China's latest moves to clamp down on the financial sector also bear some scrutiny, in so far as they may be the trigger for flows out of 'riskier' assets with the summer of 2015 debacle still fresh in most people's memories, even if the authorities would appear to have a rather better understanding and ability to 'control' flows and leverage, and margin debt levels remind subdued. The PBOC in its comments noted "Risks in China's financial market can be controlled, but nonperforming loan risks, liquidity risks, shadow banking risks...property bubble risks (and others) are increasing". See also https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-to-lower-returns-on-wealth-products-j5903t7u
** U.K. - June CPI, RPI, PPI & May House Prices **
- UK CPI is expected to be steady in yr/yr terms at 2.9% y/y, which would leave just inside the BoE's 2.0% +/- 1.0% target range, and by extension avoid the need for Mr Carney to write a letter to the Chancellor, with an August rate hike looking unlikely given weakening growth metrics and very subdued wage growth. Food and in broad terms energy are likely to be the key influences on this month's reading (seen at +0.2% m/m CPI and 0.4% m/m RPI), though in opposite directions. Food price base effects will be adverse through most of the rest of the year, with supermarkets increasingly having to pass through any increases almost immediately, having absorbed much of the GBP related pressures since the Brexit referendum. By contrast, petrol prices fell modestly this June by contrast with a relatively sharp jump in June 2016, and potentially more significantly airfares jumped last year, but have fallen this year. The other wildcard as ever will be seasonal sale discounting, which may well prove to have been rather weaker this year than last given the longer-term pressures from the GBP fall, even if 'bricks and mortar' retailers are fighting tooth and nail to survive with their internet competitors. There may also be some residual pressure from utility prices, as well as some insurance premiums, given news that average car insurance reached a record high in Q2. As for PPI, energy prices and to a lesser extent other raw materials prices will likely be the primary drivers of an expected -0.9% m/m on PPI Input, which would see the y/y rate decelerate to 9.4% from 11.6%; by contrast PPI Output is seen broadly steady (0.1% m/m) on both headline (3.4% y/y) and core (2.8% y/y). After a surprise pick-up in the prior month (5.6% y/y from 4.5%), May ONS House Prices are expected to revert to trending lower, and sharply according to the median estimate of 3.0% y/y, which would be unsurprising in the context of trends in other house price indices, though it would be the smallest increase in this measure since August 2013.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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cable is a pump or dump
1.3100 area
1.3100 area
Dentalfloss
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ditto gbpcad 1.6600
Dentalfloss
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ftse 7360..bottom of supp range
lets see if it turns
lets see if it turns
Dentalfloss
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dax 12510 pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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oil in a pivot area
Dentalfloss
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eurcad in a pump or dump area
1.4616 ..if yu can get it
1.4616 ..if yu can get it
Dentalfloss
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usdcad in a minor rez
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
scalps off our 1.1515
scalps off our 1.1515
Moneylender
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Here we go the bounce has started, a bit late, but............
Damn I'm good!
Moneylender
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C
cantagril
Stop to BE. Target 530+
Moneylender
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it went to 12494, close enough sometimes.
Moneylender
Legendary member
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I dumped mine @ 522 :clap::clap:
