Dentalfloss
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- Data avalanche accompanies month and quarter end, focus on UK Index of
Services & Current Account, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP and US Personal
Income, PCE and Chicago PMI; Italy auctions and ECB speak the other
feature; US Independence day holiday likely to prompt some book
squaring
- UK Index of Services: seen signalling modest pick up after soft Q1
- UK Current Account expected to widen out again, but still suggesting
improvement relative to trend of recent years
- Eurozone CPI: modest upside risk on headline given German, Spanish CPI,
Core CPI seen edging up, but still very subdued
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Quarter and month end arrives, and after the 'excitement" of recent sessions, there may be less willingness in markets to play out this week's themes, above all given the fact that it will be a long weekend for many in the US due to next Tuesday's Independence Day holiday, which should prompt some book squaring. Per se market movements may be rather choppier, occasionally anomalous and above all best not over-interpreted. As is typical, there is a very busy run of data from around the world, with the better than expected China PMIs and month end rush of statistics in Japan (broadly disappointing), Industrial Production in South Korea and the ever erratic German Retail Sales to digest ahead of UK Q1 Current Account, Index of Services and final Q1 GDP and Business Investment, while the Eurozone has provisional CPI and German Unemployment. Across the Atlantic the US will see Personal Income, PCE and the Chicago PMI, while Canada's GDP and quarterly BoC business and lending surveys will be very closely watched given the BoC's 'hawkish' turn. Lautenschlaeger and the ever thoughtful Coeure provide the diet of ECB speak, with Italy selling 5 & 10-yr BTPs, and Colombia's central bank seen shaving another 25 bps off rates.
Of the upcoming data, the UK Index of Services is expected to post a 0.2% m/m gain to edge the 3 mth / mth pace up to 0.3% and thus signalling a modest improvement at the start of Q2, though the overnight drop to -10 from -5 in the GfK Consumer Confidence survey serves as a reminder that consumer spending will likely remain subdued. The UK Q1 Current Account will also be closely watched and is forecast to widen out to £-16.2 Bln after an unexpectedly sharp narrowing in Q4 to £-12.1 Bln (Q3 £-25.7 Bln), but overall still signalling a material improvement relative to the trend of recent years, Eurozone June CPI is projected to slip to 1.2% y/y from May's 1.4%, with the risks slightly to the upside given stronger than expected German and Spanish CPI, with core CPI seen inching up to a still very low 1.0% y/y from 0.9%. For the US, Personal Income and PCE are seen up 0.3% and 0.1% m/m respectively, the latter echoing the disappointing Retail Sales reading, though the accompanying deflators will likely attract more attention, given continued market scepticism about the Fed's rate trajectory, with the headline seen dropping to 1.5% y/y from 1.7%, and core seen at 1.4% y/y from 1.5%.
from Marc Ostwald
Services & Current Account, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP and US Personal
Income, PCE and Chicago PMI; Italy auctions and ECB speak the other
feature; US Independence day holiday likely to prompt some book
squaring
- UK Index of Services: seen signalling modest pick up after soft Q1
- UK Current Account expected to widen out again, but still suggesting
improvement relative to trend of recent years
- Eurozone CPI: modest upside risk on headline given German, Spanish CPI,
Core CPI seen edging up, but still very subdued
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Quarter and month end arrives, and after the 'excitement" of recent sessions, there may be less willingness in markets to play out this week's themes, above all given the fact that it will be a long weekend for many in the US due to next Tuesday's Independence Day holiday, which should prompt some book squaring. Per se market movements may be rather choppier, occasionally anomalous and above all best not over-interpreted. As is typical, there is a very busy run of data from around the world, with the better than expected China PMIs and month end rush of statistics in Japan (broadly disappointing), Industrial Production in South Korea and the ever erratic German Retail Sales to digest ahead of UK Q1 Current Account, Index of Services and final Q1 GDP and Business Investment, while the Eurozone has provisional CPI and German Unemployment. Across the Atlantic the US will see Personal Income, PCE and the Chicago PMI, while Canada's GDP and quarterly BoC business and lending surveys will be very closely watched given the BoC's 'hawkish' turn. Lautenschlaeger and the ever thoughtful Coeure provide the diet of ECB speak, with Italy selling 5 & 10-yr BTPs, and Colombia's central bank seen shaving another 25 bps off rates.
Of the upcoming data, the UK Index of Services is expected to post a 0.2% m/m gain to edge the 3 mth / mth pace up to 0.3% and thus signalling a modest improvement at the start of Q2, though the overnight drop to -10 from -5 in the GfK Consumer Confidence survey serves as a reminder that consumer spending will likely remain subdued. The UK Q1 Current Account will also be closely watched and is forecast to widen out to £-16.2 Bln after an unexpectedly sharp narrowing in Q4 to £-12.1 Bln (Q3 £-25.7 Bln), but overall still signalling a material improvement relative to the trend of recent years, Eurozone June CPI is projected to slip to 1.2% y/y from May's 1.4%, with the risks slightly to the upside given stronger than expected German and Spanish CPI, with core CPI seen inching up to a still very low 1.0% y/y from 0.9%. For the US, Personal Income and PCE are seen up 0.3% and 0.1% m/m respectively, the latter echoing the disappointing Retail Sales reading, though the accompanying deflators will likely attract more attention, given continued market scepticism about the Fed's rate trajectory, with the headline seen dropping to 1.5% y/y from 1.7%, and core seen at 1.4% y/y from 1.5%.
from Marc Ostwald
