Trading with point and figure

Moneylender said:
Moneylender said:
Base forming @ 12660-70 area, will it hold??

Stop tightened
Click to expand...
pivot area marked

ht8ozk.png
Click to expand...
 
that supp area should hold..goes down right into 12600
at this point...its a pullback
122667-12686...should not be rez for bulls
12763-12787 is rez
 
Dow in rez
this is the index not spreadbet


29wvp8o.png

a top has formed
first supp is 21217 area..then 21.2K
the top could be a pullbackor it could be a decent downthrust
 
cable...no change
our 1.2650 supp aa seems to be holding
then 1.2700 rez and 1.2750
then 1.2780 from yesterday up to 1.2800
 
eurusd has a minor pivot at 1.1165-1.1175
first rez is 1.1200 area
1.1170 is a big horizontal supp area
 
Morning boss, still have my dax long. At what level is your down trend likely to be hit from your chart?
 
- UK inflation data run, Sweden CPI and US PPI in focus, OPEC monthly
report, API Inventories, and Italy, Netherlands & US bond auctions

- UK CPI: some upside risks to forecast due to utility prices and base
effects; PPI Output seen remaining well contained, Input pressures
ebbing

- US PPI: energy prices to weigh on headline, core rise seen modest

- Central banks: relatively hawkish tone from BoC's Wilkins a reminder
that markets perhaps putting a rather too dovish spin on incoming
data and central bank speak

- USA: Treasury Dodd-Frank / Volcker rule proposals, read, mark and
inwwardly digest, and note intention to implement largely via edict
and regulator, rather than legislation - significant tactical shift

- Charts: VIX, MOVE, S&P500 & NASDAQ 100 Historical Volatility

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The week's busy schedule of major statistics kicks off today, featuring Swedish CPI ahead of the full gamut of UK inflation indicators, and US PPI and NFIB Small Business Optimism, with the OPEC monthly Oil Market Report, API Oil Inventories and a rash of govt bond auctions in Italy, Netherlands and the US providing the other points of interest, with the fragile UK government providing the overarching theme. Ahead of this week's run of Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ meetings, and with markets leaning towards a more dovish view on major central banks' policy outlook, the risk is that one or other surprises as Bank of Canada's Wilkins did yesterday with a clear hint that the next move in Canadian rates will be higher, and a lot closer than markets had been discounting (see http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/06/canadian-economy-showing-encouraging-signs/ and http://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedia/associates-asper-school-business-speech-webcasts-12-june-2017/ ). Markets will also need to digest the lengthy US Treasury proposals on rolling back elements of the Dodd-Frank regulations, particularly the Volcker rule, even though the final format will be somewhat different. It is above all worth noting Mnuchin's comment that "We were very focused on, what we can do by executive order and through regulators. We think about 80 percent of the substance in the report can be accomplished by regulatory changes, and about 20 percent by legislation," i.e. circumventing what would be a long and protracted debate in Congress. See also http://bit.ly/2sVxOlt. In that link the key proposals are on pp 74.-79 (that is page numbers as printed) - basically looking to get rid of prop trading purpose rule "In addition, policymakers should assess whether the purpose test should be eliminated altogether, to avoid requiring banks to dissect the intent of a trade." This follows on from the Financial Choice Act passed by the House of Representatives on Friday, which many commentators have criticized see http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump...-risks-another-lehman-crisis-2017-6?r=US&IR=T.

** U.K. - May CPI, RPI, PPI **
- Coming against the backdrop of political uncertainty and the BoE's MPC meeting on Thursday, today's inflation data will sensitive, even if they are unlikely to sway the MPC into changing policy. The consensus looks for a 0.2% m/m rise on CPI and a 0.3% rise on RPI, which would imply that y/y rates for headline and core measures would all be unchanged vs. May (CPI 2.6%, core CPI 2.4%, RPI 3.5%). The risks would appear to be the upside of the forecast, given that while petrol prices fell by some 1.0% m/m, there will be further upward pressure from utility prices, while there are adverse base effects in Food (May 2016 -0.4% m/m), Recreation & Culture (also -0.4%) and to a smaller extent Clothing & Footwear (-0.2%), with the wild card as ever being Airfares as the Easter related bump in April is unwound. For PPI, the firmer tone to the GBP along with falling oil and commodity prices are expected to see Input Prices drop 0.5% m/m, which would see another sharp drop in the y/y rate to 13.5% from 16.6%, while Output Prices are seen edging up 0.1% to leave the y/y rate unchanged at 3.6%, underlining that the pass through from the prior sharp rises in Input Prices has been relatively well contained. The deceleration in UK House Price rises is expected to see the April ONS measure drop to 3.6% y/y from 4.1% in March, the smallest rise since September 2013; this is not news, but it still emphasizes the point that consumers are facing a number of headwinds.

** U.S.A. - May PPI **
- Today's PPI data are likely to be somewhat less sensitive than tomorrow's CPI and Retail Sales reports, barring a substantial miss. The consensus looks for energy prices to weigh on headline PPI, with a flat m/m reading expected after a much stronger and broad based 0.5% m/m jump in April, and if correct energy price base effects would see the y/y rate dip to 2.3% from 2.5%. Core PPI is seen up the 'usual' 0.2% m/m that would leave the y/y rate unchanged at a well contained 1.9%. Eminently this suggests that the Fed is certainly under no real pressure from price developments, as was evident in the Beige Book summary: "On balance, pricing pressures were little changed from the prior report, with most Districts reporting modest increases. Rapidly rising costs for lumber, steel, and other commodities tended to push input costs higher for some manufacturers and the construction sector. In contrast, some Districts noted falling prices for certain final goods, including groceries, apparel, and autos. Energy prices and farm prices were mixed across products and among Districts."

from Marc Ostwald
 
ftse humin
as we said before open...it was in rez
move down to our 7520.ish
and bounce back to 7540..ish...our rez
luvin it
 
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