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Oil taking a beating again
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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our 1.2964 workin well today
Dentalfloss
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some one on twitter talikin of 44.50 area major supp
Dentalfloss
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USO in a supp area..or near a horizontal supp area
Dentalfloss
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our 109.30 pivot on usdjpy workin well
Dentalfloss
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ftse in a poss bounce area 7450..ish
7454 the number...possibly
no guarantees
7454 the number...possibly
no guarantees
Dentalfloss
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7435-7454 should be a decent supp
our 7476 should be first rez area
for a minor swing trade
if you are that way inclined
no guarantees..lol
hit 7454 at 1.30pm
our 7476 should be first rez area
for a minor swing trade
if you are that way inclined
no guarantees..lol
hit 7454 at 1.30pm
Dentalfloss
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oil in minor rez
Dentalfloss
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dow
scalp off our 21150
excellent stuff
scalp off our 21150
excellent stuff
Moneylender
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Updated chart 12750was a little too high but good pips between 12710 and 12745!!
Dentalfloss
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gbpjpy testing rez
142.40 area
142.40 area
Dentalfloss
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Updated chart 12750was a little too high but good pips between 12710 and 12745!!
keep on whackin em
Dentalfloss
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audjpy gonna pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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post ECB thoughts
When does dropping 'or lower' not mean they will not cut rates again?
1) Staff forecasts - The GDP and CPI forecast changes while modest, were still rather more significant than the 'sources' stories yesterday implied. That said they underline just how mechanical the forecasting process is, in other words they were primarily due to a) much better than expected GDP data, and b) the combination of lower oil prices and a stronger EUR. GDP forecasts revised up 0.1 ppt for the forecast time horizon to 1.9% in 2017, by 1.8% in 2018 and by 1.7% in 2019. By contrast CPI forecasts were revised down by 0.2 ppt to 1.5% for 2016, by 0.3 ppt to 1.3% for 2018, and 0.1 ppt to 1.6% for 2019.
2) Statement changes - the removal of 'or lower' was a rather more tentative removal of the easing bias than first appeared, with Mr Draghi observing "We removed the easing bias on rates because the tail risks on inflation have disappeared ... if these risks were to reappear, we would certainly be ready to lower rates." Given that Draghi also said that there was no discussion about tapering, or even planning for tapering, this really was the most marginal of shifts in their policy signal, even if they also shifted their risk assessment on the growth outlook to 'broadly balanced' from 'moving towards a more balanced configuration'. Draghi's new mantra appears to be 'patient and confident' (call that "we are in no hurry whatsoever"), and underlines that the ECB will in no way be pre-emptive, and will require a lot of convincing that core inflation really does take off from current levels.
3) The reported lack of any discussion about tapering (the minutes may suggest something slightly different) underlines that the ECB is more than well aware that it would be unwise to offer any encouragement markets to speculate during the summer months about how this might be implemented. It also underlines that an extension of the QE programme is still a real option, and by extension underlines that this was a very tentative removal of their easing bias, if one can even call it that.
4) While there was not a specific mention of the rally in the EUR since the last meeting, it is probably safe to observe that the ECB are aware that it could extend if: a) the Fed were to turn more cautious on the US outlook, b) if Trump continues to fail to deliver any meaningful tax reforms or infrastructure plans, c) markets lose faith in the US rebounding from weakness in Q1. In other words, EUR strength may materialize via way of factors they have no influence over, and it might need to be protested as posing a downside risk to the inflation outlook, and by extension might result in a longer extension of the QE programme. It does beg the question of why 'or lower' was dropped, given it appears to be a rather cosmetic manoeuvre.
Overall this was another rather underwhelming meeting, which offers few incentives for traders or final investors to alter their current strategies. Attention can now shift back to the US, both in terms of the Fed next week and political developments, and more immediately to the result of the UK and French parliamentary elections, as well as Middle East tensions.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
When does dropping 'or lower' not mean they will not cut rates again?
1) Staff forecasts - The GDP and CPI forecast changes while modest, were still rather more significant than the 'sources' stories yesterday implied. That said they underline just how mechanical the forecasting process is, in other words they were primarily due to a) much better than expected GDP data, and b) the combination of lower oil prices and a stronger EUR. GDP forecasts revised up 0.1 ppt for the forecast time horizon to 1.9% in 2017, by 1.8% in 2018 and by 1.7% in 2019. By contrast CPI forecasts were revised down by 0.2 ppt to 1.5% for 2016, by 0.3 ppt to 1.3% for 2018, and 0.1 ppt to 1.6% for 2019.
2) Statement changes - the removal of 'or lower' was a rather more tentative removal of the easing bias than first appeared, with Mr Draghi observing "We removed the easing bias on rates because the tail risks on inflation have disappeared ... if these risks were to reappear, we would certainly be ready to lower rates." Given that Draghi also said that there was no discussion about tapering, or even planning for tapering, this really was the most marginal of shifts in their policy signal, even if they also shifted their risk assessment on the growth outlook to 'broadly balanced' from 'moving towards a more balanced configuration'. Draghi's new mantra appears to be 'patient and confident' (call that "we are in no hurry whatsoever"), and underlines that the ECB will in no way be pre-emptive, and will require a lot of convincing that core inflation really does take off from current levels.
3) The reported lack of any discussion about tapering (the minutes may suggest something slightly different) underlines that the ECB is more than well aware that it would be unwise to offer any encouragement markets to speculate during the summer months about how this might be implemented. It also underlines that an extension of the QE programme is still a real option, and by extension underlines that this was a very tentative removal of their easing bias, if one can even call it that.
4) While there was not a specific mention of the rally in the EUR since the last meeting, it is probably safe to observe that the ECB are aware that it could extend if: a) the Fed were to turn more cautious on the US outlook, b) if Trump continues to fail to deliver any meaningful tax reforms or infrastructure plans, c) markets lose faith in the US rebounding from weakness in Q1. In other words, EUR strength may materialize via way of factors they have no influence over, and it might need to be protested as posing a downside risk to the inflation outlook, and by extension might result in a longer extension of the QE programme. It does beg the question of why 'or lower' was dropped, given it appears to be a rather cosmetic manoeuvre.
Overall this was another rather underwhelming meeting, which offers few incentives for traders or final investors to alter their current strategies. Attention can now shift back to the US, both in terms of the Fed next week and political developments, and more immediately to the result of the UK and French parliamentary elections, as well as Middle East tensions.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
Moneylender
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21200 again, it doesnt want to go down does it?
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Cable down 2% on exit poll result!!!
Dentalfloss
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cable..in supp area now
Dentalfloss
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seems to be holding 1.2750...so far
we could get a move down to 1.2650 ..ish....there is a big technical confluence in that area
looks like we still buy dips
note how we got the pips from 1.2964 area
lets see what happens
1.2684 is where horizontal supp starts/aqua horizontal..been tested so far
1.2800-1.2820 first rez area
we could get a move down to 1.2650 ..ish....there is a big technical confluence in that area
looks like we still buy dips
note how we got the pips from 1.2964 area
lets see what happens
1.2684 is where horizontal supp starts/aqua horizontal..been tested so far
1.2800-1.2820 first rez area
Dentalfloss
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ftse into the open
7440 was a prev rez on daily bars
should be supp
we wuz wrong with 7454..lol
7443 is a pivot on spreadbet data
7440 was a prev rez on daily bars
should be supp
we wuz wrong with 7454..lol
7443 is a pivot on spreadbet data
Dentalfloss
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if 1.2684 on cable and 7443 on ftse hold...then up we go
ftse is now lagging other index....
midcaps are still laģging the Dow
ftse is now lagging other index....
midcaps are still laģging the Dow
