Trading with point and figure

FAKERS

8xuarp.png
 
oil
our 46.75-47.00 supp area worked well
48.50 rez/horizontal on the cards
then 49.00
needs to hold 47.35 area..there is some sort of pivot there
 
- Slightly busier day for data and events, but market focus very clearly
on Thursday's trifecta of UK election, ECB and Comey; Oz GDP and
German Orders to digest ahead of RBI & NBP rate decisions, US Consumer
Credit and German 5-yr sale; EIA oil inventories also due

- Germany Orders: Foreign Capital Goods Orders the key drag, underlying
trend still solid

- Poland rates: solid GDP and 'at target' CPI unlikely to prompt NBP to
signal shift to a less accommodative stance for the time being

- Attachments: June "Ghost in the Machine", WTI Oil future

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A slightly busier day in terms of the macro schedule, but with all eyes on focussed on tomorrow's trifecta of UK election, ECB meeting and Comey testimony, markets may be inclined to view today's calendar as little more than roadkill. On the agenda is a heavily frontloaded data schedule, with the well flagged sluggish Australian Q1 GDP and German Factory Orders to digest ahead of China's FX reserves, UK Halifax House Prices and this evening's generally non-market sensitive Consumer Credit. The India RBI and Polish NBP rate decisions are seen leaving policy rates unchanged. As previously noted, the focus is on whether the RBI tempers its relatively hawkish take on the inflation outlook at its previous meeting, given the disappointing Q1 GDP data, or whether it views the latter as transitory noise due to the impact of Q4's demonetization. As for the NBP decision, strong Q1 GDP and CPI back at target might normally be expected to prompt the NBP to signal that a rate hike is on the runway, but the NBP has been resolute in signalling that sees the current CPI uptick as little more than unwind of energy price base effects, and it will certainly view the recent strength of the PLN as a reason to be cautious, especially with the ECB seemingly in no hurry to start tapering, and certainly still a long way from hiking rates. For all that the OECD forecasts are worth as much as those from the IMF and World Bank, the latest update will doubtless generate the usual plethora of headlines. The German Factory Orders were disappointing at -2.1% m/m, though can be seen as a correction after prior gains of 1.1% and 3.5% m/m for what is an inherently very volatile series. The weakness was primarily predicated on a 7.7% m/m drop in Non-Eurozone Capital Goods Orders, with total domestic Orders dipping 0.2% and total Eurozone Orders slipping 1.4% m/m after surging 6.6% m/m in March, and given Easter timing effects, it would be wise not to over-interpret this setback, particularly the robust profile of manufacturing sector surveys. EIA crude inventories are also due and are expected to see a further 3.1 Mln draw, following last week's much larger than expected 6.4 Mln draw; however oil market participants may well view this with a shrug of the shoulders, after the EIA again upped its estimate for 2017 US oil output to 10.01 Mln bpd, i.e. an overall increase of 680K bpd.

The latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine is attached, and is loosely themed around the UK and agricultural markets, as well as considering the outlook for equity markets.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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