Trading with point and figure

- London terror atrocity once again casts a long shadow, with markets
thinned by Europe Whistsun holiday, focus on Services PMIs; US
Factory Orders and Labor Market Conditions Index also due

- Asia Services PMIs uptick offers encouraging counterpoint to
regional Manufacturing PMIs

- Eurozone Services PMIs: expected to confirm robust activity profile
across all major economies

- UK Services PMI: seen dipping back to March levels after hitting
year to date high in April, focus on business outlook index

- US Manufacturing ISM: modest correction to April jump expected, focus
on Orders and Employment sub-indices

- Week Ahead: thin week for US data, focus on China trade and inflation,
German Orders, European Production readings and Australia Q1 GDP

- Week Ahead: Thursday in focus with UK election, ECB and Comey testimony

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Once again the latest terror atrocity in the UK casts a long shadow over markets and this week's election, with rising tensions in the Gulf, as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. sever ties with Qatar over its alleged sponsorship of 'terrorism', only serving to raise the temperature on the geo-political heat map. The Whitsun holiday in many European countries will make for thinner trading conditions, as Services PMIs dominate the day's schedule, with Turkish CPI and the US Labour Market Conditions Index and Factory Orders the only other highlights. In contrast to Thursday's Manufacturing PMIs, the Services PMIs out of Asia were broadly positive, even if in China and India this marked a rebound from disappointing setbacks in April. For the Eurozone, robust preliminary Services PMIs in France, Germany and Eurozone are expected to be confirmed, while Spanish and Italian readings are seen edging down from stronger than expected showings in April (in Italy a multi-year high). Following on from another solid Manufacturing PMI, and an unexpected surge in the Construction PMI, the UK Services PMI is seen little changed at a very solid 56.8, with particular interest in the Business Outlook index above all in the context of the election and ensuing Brexit negotiations. In the US, the non-manufacturing ISM is seen dipping from the top of its 8-mth range at 57.5 in April to 57.0, which would contrast with the rebound in the Markit Services to 54.0 vs. 53.1, the latter effectively playing catch-up with the sturdier profile seen in the ISM measure over much of this year. For the week as a whole, Thursday will likely provide the focal point with the UK election, the ECB meeting and quarterly forecast update, and former FBI director Comey's testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, as Trump stumbles from one misstep to another. Statistically German Factory Orders, China Trade, CPI and PPI, a raft of European Industrial Production, Australian Q1 GDP and revised Q1 GDP offer the statistical highlights in what will be a very thin week for US statistics. In central banks terms both Australia's RBA and India's RBI are expected to leave rates unchanged, though it will be interesting to see if the latter tones down the relatively hawkish rhetoric at its last meeting, given the disappointing Q1 GDP data.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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