- Manufacturing PMIs dominate schedule, US ADP Employment, Construction
Spending and Auto Sales also on tap along with Fed & ECB speak; France
and Spain to auction debt
- PMIs: Europe, including UK, seen sustaining strength of recent months,
as Asia readings largely disappoint, US ISM seen consolidating at
lower, but still solid pace of activity
- US ADP Employment: further solid gain expected, Claims and Beige Book
point to continued labour market tightening
- US Auto Sales: seen steadying after consistently missing forecasts,
Memorial Day holiday the wild card
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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A new month, but judging by yesterday's price action, the same lethargy that has plagued markets for much of this year remains the key thematic. Statistically Manufacturing PMIs from around the world dominate the schedule, with the overnight Q1 CapEx readings from Japan and Australia to digest ahead of Brazil Q1 GDP and a raft of US data, among which the May ADP Employment and ISM will claim pride of place. On the policy front some BoJ, Fed and ECB speak is accompanied by the China-EU summit, while Spain and France feature on the Govt bond auction schedule. EIA Oil inventories are also due, and follow a much sharp than expected API Crude stocks drawdown of 8.7 Mln, which appears to have put a short-term floor under oil prices after the recent sell-off.
** World - May Manufacturing PMIs **
- Having digested the largely disappointing run of Asian PMIs, excepting Japan (which also saw solid Q1 CapEx readings) and Philippines attention turns to the Eurozone, where the dip in France and surge in Germany flash PMis are seen confirmed, with Spanish and Italian readings expected to be little changed from solid April readings at 54.7 and 56.0 respectively. Given that other European readings (Scandinavia and CEE) are also seen posting robust outturns, along with the UK, there is little doubting that the region as a whole looks to have the best underlying sector momentum. The question on the UK is whether last month's surge was another none too infrequent outlier (has happened in both directions in recent years)? Given the strength of European economies, the answer is probably not. As for the US Manufacturing ISM, the consensus looks for little change at 54.6 after post a much sharper than expected drop from 57.2 to 54.8 in April, which would be weakest reading since the election, though still comfortably above the levels seen through most 2015 and 2016. Particular attention will be given to the often very volatile New Orders, which fell sharply in April to 57.5 vs. March 64.5, but remains at levels of indicative of a solid pace of activity in coming months.
** U.S.A. - May ADP Employment / Auto Sales **
- As is often the case the forecast for ADP Employment at 180K is around the longer run average, and is thus rather agnostic. That said Initial Claims have been very close to their 43 year low over the past month, and are expected to be fractionally higher at 238K vs. last week's 234K, and point to a very solid ADP reading, as did yesterday's Beige Book which noted that "labor markets continued to tighten, with most Districts citing shortages across a broadening range of occupations and regions." By contrast Auto Sales have been losing momentum since hitting a cyclical high of 18.29 Mln in December, and have missed forecasts every month since, with May Sales expected to be little changed at a 16.90 Mln SAAR pace (vs. April 16.83 Mln), which in a historical context remains a very healthy pace. However it still leaves sales down in y/y terms, with the Memorial Day holiday often producing an outlier, and with rising incentives (discounts) impinging on margins, and automaker inventories at historically high levels, allying with anecdotal evidence of rising delinquencies on auto loans, the sector appears to be facing considerable headwinds.
from Marc Ostwald