Dentalfloss
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erm nope
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
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erm nope
Dentalfloss
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12564...excellent
Dentalfloss
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- Very busy for statistics as US and UK return from long weekend: Eurozone
and US inflation indicators in focus, Sweden GDP, EC Confidence surveys,
US Consumer Confidence also due as Japan labour and spending data and
upward revision to France Q1 GDP digested; ECB and Fed speak also on tap
- German CPI: modest m/m drop expected, with base effects set to pace
sharper setback in y/y rate, mirroring drop in Spain
- US Personal Income/PCE: expected to post solid gains, but deflators
seen drifting lower in y/y terms; watch for Brainard comments
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busy day for statistics with the mixed Japanese private consumption and strong labour data are digested along with French Consumer Spending, while ahead lies German, Spanish and Belgian CPI for May, an expected strong showing for Swedish Q1 GDP that follows a near 0.2% upward revision to French GDP (0.449% q/q vs. provisional 0.259%), EC Confidence Surveys, while the afternoon brings US Personal Income & PCE, CaseShiller House Prices and the Conference Board's measure of Consumer Confidence. However it may will be politics that again rules the roost in financial markets, as month end looms after yesterday's US and UK holidays, with the rift between continental Europe and the US all too visible at the NATO and G7 meetings, even if the rapprochement and renewed common sense of purpose between France and Germany is a genuine positive, but clearly of little benefit if the mooted early elections in Italy were to deliver an intractable stalemate that Italy, the Eurozone and EU can ill afford, particularly with the Greece debt crisis once again rearing its ugly head. North Korea is once again in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, while Trump returns to the US to face the music as the row over Russia refuses to subside. In policy terms, a rather more harmonious line from Draghi and Weidmann on the ECB policy outlook underlines that there will be no early shift away from its current QE programme, but the June meeting will almost certainly strike a less accommodative tone, and perhaps a rough outline of how the QE programme may start to be wound down in H1 2018, Nowotny and Liikanen offer their thoughts, while Fed's Brainard's speech will be very closely watched for signals on the June policy meeting, for which markets continue to attribute a 100%.
Of the day's data run, there is no doubt that the various national CPI readings in the Eurozone and the US PCE deflators have the potential to prompt a shift in markets rate expectations for the ECB and Fed. Base effects will again play a major role in both German and Spanish CPI, with a drop in energy prices accompanied by a firmer expected to see German CPI drip 0.1% m/m and a flat m/m reading in Spain, which would see y/y rates once again drop sharply after an Easter timing effect dictated rebound in April, with forecasters looking for German CPI to drop to 1.6% from 2.0%, and Spanish CPI to 2.1% from 2.6%, whereby the core CPI indications will require particular attention, given that the ECB majority still view core CPI not as yet signalling a sustained/sustainable uptrend. While the doves would still appear to be in a minority on the FOMC, they are increasingly voicing concern about a sub-optimal trend in both the headline and core PCE deflators, which are expected to mirror CPI with 0.2.% and 0.1% increases, that would see y/y rates dip further to 1.7% and 1.5%, still reasonably close to the Fed's 2.0% target, but clearly weakening in trend terms over the past 3 months. That said, the FOMC minutes did underline that the committee was looking for confirmation that the Q1 weakness in consumption was 'transitory', and 0.4% m/m gains for Personal Income and PCE would go some way to suggest that assessment was correct. AS for Consumer Confidence, a further marginal dip to 119.8 from April's 120.3 and a 16-yr high of 124.9 in March is expected, and while this would be the first time in a year that the index has fallen in consecutive months, it remains at historically very high levels.
from Marc Ostwald
and US inflation indicators in focus, Sweden GDP, EC Confidence surveys,
US Consumer Confidence also due as Japan labour and spending data and
upward revision to France Q1 GDP digested; ECB and Fed speak also on tap
- German CPI: modest m/m drop expected, with base effects set to pace
sharper setback in y/y rate, mirroring drop in Spain
- US Personal Income/PCE: expected to post solid gains, but deflators
seen drifting lower in y/y terms; watch for Brainard comments
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busy day for statistics with the mixed Japanese private consumption and strong labour data are digested along with French Consumer Spending, while ahead lies German, Spanish and Belgian CPI for May, an expected strong showing for Swedish Q1 GDP that follows a near 0.2% upward revision to French GDP (0.449% q/q vs. provisional 0.259%), EC Confidence Surveys, while the afternoon brings US Personal Income & PCE, CaseShiller House Prices and the Conference Board's measure of Consumer Confidence. However it may will be politics that again rules the roost in financial markets, as month end looms after yesterday's US and UK holidays, with the rift between continental Europe and the US all too visible at the NATO and G7 meetings, even if the rapprochement and renewed common sense of purpose between France and Germany is a genuine positive, but clearly of little benefit if the mooted early elections in Italy were to deliver an intractable stalemate that Italy, the Eurozone and EU can ill afford, particularly with the Greece debt crisis once again rearing its ugly head. North Korea is once again in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, while Trump returns to the US to face the music as the row over Russia refuses to subside. In policy terms, a rather more harmonious line from Draghi and Weidmann on the ECB policy outlook underlines that there will be no early shift away from its current QE programme, but the June meeting will almost certainly strike a less accommodative tone, and perhaps a rough outline of how the QE programme may start to be wound down in H1 2018, Nowotny and Liikanen offer their thoughts, while Fed's Brainard's speech will be very closely watched for signals on the June policy meeting, for which markets continue to attribute a 100%.
Of the day's data run, there is no doubt that the various national CPI readings in the Eurozone and the US PCE deflators have the potential to prompt a shift in markets rate expectations for the ECB and Fed. Base effects will again play a major role in both German and Spanish CPI, with a drop in energy prices accompanied by a firmer expected to see German CPI drip 0.1% m/m and a flat m/m reading in Spain, which would see y/y rates once again drop sharply after an Easter timing effect dictated rebound in April, with forecasters looking for German CPI to drop to 1.6% from 2.0%, and Spanish CPI to 2.1% from 2.6%, whereby the core CPI indications will require particular attention, given that the ECB majority still view core CPI not as yet signalling a sustained/sustainable uptrend. While the doves would still appear to be in a minority on the FOMC, they are increasingly voicing concern about a sub-optimal trend in both the headline and core PCE deflators, which are expected to mirror CPI with 0.2.% and 0.1% increases, that would see y/y rates dip further to 1.7% and 1.5%, still reasonably close to the Fed's 2.0% target, but clearly weakening in trend terms over the past 3 months. That said, the FOMC minutes did underline that the committee was looking for confirmation that the Q1 weakness in consumption was 'transitory', and 0.4% m/m gains for Personal Income and PCE would go some way to suggest that assessment was correct. AS for Consumer Confidence, a further marginal dip to 119.8 from April's 120.3 and a 16-yr high of 124.9 in March is expected, and while this would be the first time in a year that the index has fallen in consecutive months, it remains at historically very high levels.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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good foir cable...luvin it
Dentalfloss
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gbpjpy likin it aswell
Dentalfloss
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ftse back into supp
will it hold.??
will it hold.??
Dentalfloss
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cable in rez
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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1.2850 firts
then 1.2840/prev rez..needs to supp
then 1.2840/prev rez..needs to supp
Dentalfloss
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dax needs to stay above 12620..ish
then 12.6K
then 12.6K
Dentalfloss
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GBP crosses need to build on those gains
Dentalfloss
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dax gettin back to our 12564-12585 supp area
luvin it
luvin it
Dentalfloss
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our 1.2863 becam rez
Dentalfloss
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so far its supporting...excellent
Dentalfloss
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yes sir
Dentalfloss
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back into our 1.2863 and bounce off it
Dentalfloss
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Hey Cantagril.....what do ya think of our thread ..??
Dentalfloss
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eurgbp comin into rez
above .8712 area is mega rez
above .8712 area is mega rez
C
cantagril
Very useful! I'm always lurking but I don't feel I have much to contribute as yet. I've also been otherwise occupied for the last few weeks so I haven't been as assiduous as I should be.
Am always interested to see how you're seeing things and whether my own analysis gets anywhere close to yours - I haven't yet got a proper feel for p&f as yet and I have trouble seeing the wood for the trees....or rather the directions and levels. That said, I'm trading less and making more than I used to and I think that the way forward for me is to concentrate on one of your own favourites (I'm thinking of the Dax) to get completely familiar.
