Trading with point and figure

oil...when Nymex opens or even premarket..poss bulls get a test in 49.32-49.50 areea
if that area remains rez..not great for stocks
 
Dax
 

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opening move..looks to be 12540..ish
bull test
or test bers in 12620-12640
12600 round could be some sort of pivot
 
- G7 meeting tops the agenda, as Japan CPI digested ahead of US revised
Q1 GDP and Durable Goods Orders; long weekends in UK, US and China
likely to thin trading volumes

- US Q1 GDP: seen revised up fractionally on the back of revisions to
various March data, Q2 data far more relevant to Fed outlook

- US Durable Goods Orders: aircraft set to drag headline lower, core
measures seen posting further solid gains

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

As previously outlined the plethora of holidays which bridge the end of this week and the start of next week will likely make for thinly traded, but potentially passingly very choppy asset prices, as was all too evident in yesterday's European stock index trading. The 'macro' calendar is unsurprisingly sparse, with the overnight Japan CPI and Services PPI 'warming the plate' for Italy confidence surveys and US revised Q1 GDP and Durable Goods Orders, while the G7 summit in Italy is accompanied by some more Fed speak from maverick Bullard and, an expected further 25 bps rates cut to 6.25% in Colombia.

But perhaps the most momentous event of the day is that Stephen Lewis is retiring after nearly 50 years in the 'City', within which I have had the privilege of working with him since 1992. He will be sorely missed by all those that have worked with him over the years at Phillips & Drew, London Bond Broking, Monument Securities and ADM ISI, as well as a broad church of clients, market participants, commentators and journalists. I would never presume to speak for others, however I can take this opportunity to thank him for his friendship, for being a wonderful colleague, an unparalleled mentor, and a marvellous person to 'chew the cud' with about markets, politics, psychology and philosophy, or indeed any other topic. We all wish him the very best for a long and very happy and healthy retirement.

** U.S.A. - Apr Durable Goods / Q1 revised GDP **
- Given the long weekend in a number of countries, it is debatable whether markets will react to anything but large outliers in today's US data, perhaps the more so given that the FOMC has clearly signalled that it will be Q2 spending and inflation data which are the arbiters of its June rate decision. Be that as it may, Q1 GDP is expected to be revised up marginally from the provisional 0.7% to SAAR to 0.9%, largely predicated on upward revisions to March readings on Retail Sales, Construction Spending, Trade and Inventories, even if April readings proved disappointing. As for Durable Goods, weak aircraft orders are anticipated to have weighed heavily at the headline level with a 1.5% m/m drop seen, the first fall in 2017, but core measures are seen posting further solid gains: ex-Transport 0.4% and the CapEx proxy that is Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft 0.5%, even though weaker orders sub-indices in April surveys suggest some modest downside risks.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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