Trading with point and figure

dentist007 said:
cable

2rcaowo.jpg
Click to expand...


lookin ready for a pop if supp holds
1.3450 is vertical upside count target
 
- Digesting China ratings downgrade, Oz Construction Output and German]
Consumer Confidence, awaiting South Africa CPI & US House Prices and
Existing Home Sales; central banks in focus - FOMC minutes, Fed and
ECB speakers, Bank of Canada rate decision

- ECB: current level of accommodation increasingly inappropriate, awaiting
signals from Draghi, Praet & Coeure on degree of shift in forward guidance
at June meeting

- FOMC minutes: likely to offer further strong hint of June hike, focus
on discussion on economic outlook, and above all balance sheet reduction
plans

- Bank Of Canada: seen on hold, focus on assessment of mortgage sector woes,
and view on multiple headwinds facing the economy

- US Existing Home Sales: modest dip expected from 10-yr high, inventories
set to post seasonal rise, but still low

- China downgrade: effectively long discounted in govt and corporate
yields; acute need to establish formal debt resolution mechanisms

- Charts: China 5 & 10 yr Govt bond yield, China AAA 5-yr yield vs.
Govt 5-yr, WTI Future

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Central banks will be the centre of attention today, particularly as the data schedule is again rather thin featuring the overnight Australian Q1 Construction Output and German GfK Consumer Confidence, while ahead lie South African CPI and US FHFA House Prices and Existing Home Sales. A rare ratings move on China overnight, with Moody's downgrading to A1 from Aa3 (outlook stable) will be the other talking point of te day, and even if the sharp rise in top rated domestic corporate debt yields and the accompanying rise in govt bond yields can be said to have more than discounted this move, it will reignite the debate around China's debt woes. The key point remains that while some form of credit debacle seems inevitable, China has more than enough assets to resolve this without a systemic crisis, the question is how, and whether it ushers a long overdue and formal system for debt resolution. There should be plenty to ponder on the central bank front with both Praet and Draghi speaking, the May FOMC minutes and two more Fed speakers, and the Bank of Canada policy meeting following on from BoJ's Kuroda overnight. Govt bond supply comes in the shape of a German 10-yr and US 5-yr Treasury & 2 -yr FRN. Ahead of the OPEC meeting tomorrow, where a 9-month production cut extension is now 'baked in the cake' as far as oil markets are concerned, this afternoon sees EIA oil inventories report, with falls expected across the board, which follows a smaller than anticipated drop in the API Crude inventories, but a much larger than expected fall in Gasoline stocks.

** Fed, ECB and Bank of Canada **
- While the ECB has an inflation target, and has made it abundantly clear that it views the current core CPI trend as far from exhibiting a sustained / sustainable uptrend, and will probably view recent EUR strength and a flat oil price trend as posing some downside risks to headline CPI going forward, growth and labour market indicators continue to strengthen at a pace that looks to be increasingly incompatible with its current degree of accommodation. A change of forward guidance rhetoric at its June meeting looks to be inevitable, and given the tail risks peculiar to the Eurozone in terms of the impact of winding down its QE programme on govt bond spreads, a clear outline of how it plans to achieve this needs to be outlined long before it is implemented. Per se speeches by the triumvirate of Draghi, Praet and Coeure will require particular attention over coming weeks and months, even if Draghi's speech topic today relates to financial stability. As for the Fed, depsite last week's 'Trump-gate' wobble, markets have reverted to assuming that a June rate hike is all but a done deal, though doubts remain about a further hike this year, which was effectively the message when seasoned dove Brainard spoke earlier this week, even if today's May FOMC minutes will doubtless stick to the March dot plot trajectory. The more interesting aspects of the minutes will be the discussion on the economy, above all whether the majority see a degree of quid pro quo in the strengthening of business investment vs. a more modest profile for consumer spending as drivers of growth. However the key point of interest is how far the discussion on balance sheet reduction has advanced, both in practical terms and in terms of rationale. Canada's economy looks increasingly shaky, with consumers lumbered with very high levels of debt, investment spending very sluggish, in no small part due to the resource sector recession, and it now faces rising trade tensions with the US, and 'race to the bottom' fall-out in its mortgage markets. As such it is unsurprising that the BoC is seen on hold today, with the key question being how much the BoC acknowledges of the downside risks to the economy.

** U.S.A. - April Existing Home Sales **
- Following on from yesterday's much sharper than expected drop in the ever volatile New Home Sales, albeit following a large upward revision to March, today's Existing Home Sales are seen dipping 1.1% m/m (mirroring Pending Home Sales) to a robust 5.65 Mln SAAR pace after jumping 4.4% in March to a 10-yr high of 5.71 Mln. As ever, a close eye needs to be kept on inventories, which have been rising from very low levels, and generally a marked seasonal rise. The Housing sector remains in very good health.

from Marc Ostwald
 
Before the Open (May 24)
by admin on May 24, 2017
in Before the Open
Share Your Thoughts
Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed and quiet. Japan and New Zealand posted gains; India and Indonesia posted losses. Europe is currently mixed, but there are a couple big movers. Turkey is up; Greece, Russia and Hungary are down more than 1%. Futures in the States point towards a slight up open for the cash market.
—————
VIDEO: The Trend is Your Friend
—————
The dollar is flat. Oil is flat; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up.
So far the market has posted decent gains this week, but for what it’s worth, volume is falling off. The Nas and Nas 100 remain in uptrends; the other indexes remain in consolidation mode, having not changed much going back several months.
FOMC minutes get released today. They could move prices if the Fed sounds more hawkish of dovish than currently believed. Expectations right now are for a raise at next months Fed meeting. I’m not completely convinced.
Volume is already light this week, and it’s going to get lighter with a 3-day weekend ahead.
Bias remains up. No reason to change. If you look hard enough you can find reasons to question the trend, but that’s not wise. More money is lost over the years by not riding the trends than from losses themselves. We’re in a secular bull market. There will be disruptions, but the trend will last many more years.

from Jason Leavitt
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Michael Carr
  • Article
Equities Technical Analysis Testing Point & Figure Patterns
Replies
0
Views
3K
T2W Bot
T2W Bot
S
Point&Figure
2
Replies
39
Views
7K
subarashi
S
M
Point and Figure
Replies
2
Views
1K
Dentalfloss
Dentalfloss
A
Point and Figure box size for commodities
Replies
4
Views
4K
TWI
TWI
William Rafter
  • Article
Technical Analysis Point & Figure Gone High Tech
Replies
18
Views
8K
GruntnoWay
G
Top