Trading with point and figure

Moneylender said:
Or down!
Click to expand...

Could be up though!!!

1zbup8g.jpg
 
1.1100 is start of bigger rez on eurusd

1.1124 the biggee
nope,,,its actually 1.1136-1.1148...
swing shorts should be lookin in that area
 
- UK inflation data tops day's schedule; raft of European GDP readings, German
ZEW, US Housing Starts and Industrial Production also due; ECB speak,
UK and French bond syndications and API Stats also in focus

- UK CPI, RPI: Easter timing effects to pace expected acceleration, petrol
prices likely to temper gains, airfares the wild card

- UK PPI: firmer GBP, lower raw materials expected to put a brake on
on steep Input rise, Output prices seen well relatively well behaved
given accumulated pipeline pressures

- US Industrial Production: resources seen contributing to another solid
gain, utilities may drag, manufacturing seen rebounding, autos a
wild card

- US Housing Starts: further solid gain expected, sector in good health

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A busy day for data awaits, which sees the raft of UK April inflation indicators and a raft of European national Q1 GDP readings along with the revised Eurozone reading, with Germany's ZEW survey and US Industrial Production and Housing Starts rounding off the schedule. In central bank terms, there is ECB speak from Coeure and Nowotny, which follows the overnight RBA minutes, while this evening brings the latest API oil inventories data, wiht crude inventories seen down 2.3 Mln, Distillates -1.3 Mln and Gasoline down 900k. Politics as ever never strays far from the front line, with the latest allegations about Trump disclosing intelligence to Russia when he met with Russia's Lavrov casting a cloud over any market hopes of progress on reforms and tax cuts, even if it has to be added that the information related to the battle against ISIS, and as such would not appear to be out of the ordinary. In govt bond supply times, it will be all about long-dated syndicated deals, with the UK's DMO seen launching the syndicated re-opening of the 1.75% 2057, and France to market a new 2048 OAT, which is long overdue, given that the current 30-yr benchmark is a 2045. Of the European GDP readings, perhaps most attention should be given to those from Italy and Central & Eastern Europe. The latter are enjoying a very sharp rebound after last year's hiatus, with Hungary beating expectations of 1.2% q/q with 1.3% q/q, and the Czech Republic smashing forecasts also at 1.3% q/q against expected 0.7% q/q, Poland would thus appear to be on course to potentially trounce an expected 0.9% q/q, Slovakia in line at 0.8% q/q. These follow a stellar 1.7% q/q 5.7% y/y from Romania, way above an expected 1.0% q/q, though this also underlines that the central bank now looks to be well behind the curve in terms of moving away from a very accommodative stance. By contrast Italy is forecast to post another very modest 0.2% q/q, which would see its y/y rate slow to 0.8% from 1.0% in Q4, with some downside risks given that net exports are unlikely to have contributed substantially, after giving a substantial boost in Q4.

** U.K. - April CPI, RPI, PPI **
- For all that the BoE was reasonably on the inflation outlook, today's data are still likely to make for uncomfortable reading for the BoE's MPC. Headline CPI & CPIH seen up 0.4% m/m, which would see the y/y rate push up to 2.6% for 2.3%, and core CPI to 2.2% y/y from 1.8%, with Easter timing effects (above all due to the perennial wild card of airfares) playing a role, though a drop in petrol prices should offer some offset, while food and utility prices will likely exercise some upward pressure. If the CPI data are in line and tomorrow's Average Weekly Earnings are as expected (seen fractionally higher at 2.4% y/y headline and unchanged ex-Bonus at 2.2% y/y,) this would could confirm that negative real wage growth has returned. As for PPI, the combination of a firmer GBP and the setback in energy and raw materials prices are expected to see a flat m/m reading on PPI Input which would allow the y/y rate to dip for a third month to 17.0% from 17.9%, while PPI output is forecast to rise a modest 0.2% m/m on headline and core, that would see y/y rates at 3.4% (from 3.6%) and 2.5% (unchanged) respectively, which suggests that producers have thus far absorbed much of the rise in input prices.

** U.S.A. - April Housing Starts / Industrial Production **
- After the disappointing NY Fed Manufacturing drop, today's Industrial Production is expected to present a rather more positive picture of the industrial/manufacturing sector with a 0.4% m/m rise in headline Production (March +0.5% m/m), with the resource sector making another solid contribution, though seasonally warmer than usual weather may well drag on the headline reading. By contrast an expected 0.4% m/m rise in Manufacturing Output would only reverse a similarly sized and partly weather relate fall in March, even if this was an outlier in terms of an otherwise solid run of steady gains since September 2016. A solid gain in the labour report's manufacturing hours component offers support evidence for the forecast, though auto output will likely be the wild card, given the recent run of disappointing run of auto sales readings, amid signs of a fairly substantial inventory build. Housing Starts and Building Permits are again seen posting solid SAAR readings of 1.26 Mln and 1.27 Mln respectively, equating to m/m gains of 3.7% m/m and 0.2% m/m, and fitting well with another solid NAHB Housing Market Index (70 vs. 68) yesterday. This sector at least continues to fire on all cylinders.


from Marc Ostwald
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Michael Carr
  • Article
Equities Technical Analysis Testing Point & Figure Patterns
Replies
0
Views
3K
T2W Bot
T2W Bot
S
Point&Figure
2
Replies
39
Views
7K
subarashi
S
M
Point and Figure
Replies
2
Views
1K
Dentalfloss
Dentalfloss
A
Point and Figure box size for commodities
Replies
4
Views
4K
TWI
TWI
William Rafter
  • Article
Technical Analysis Point & Figure Gone High Tech
Replies
18
Views
8K
GruntnoWay
G
Top