ftse - was ready and waiting around 7410 zone earlier...in short now...lets see how it plays out...could be talking b*ll*cks lol
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- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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ftse - was ready and waiting around 7410 zone earlier...in short now...lets see how it plays out...could be talking b*ll*cks lol
stopped out... still bullish.....
Dentalfloss
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excellent movement..out some time ago
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eur and cable went nicely from our supp areas we put on last night
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oil 48.30 our pivot area...and dump
excellent
excellent
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Dow index over the last month
Dentalfloss
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messy....lol
however it turned slightly nasty from 9th May
no screamin short...could just be unwinding before a break in either direction
mark supp and rez and carry on
however it turned slightly nasty from 9th May
no screamin short...could just be unwinding before a break in either direction
mark supp and rez and carry on
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ftse has now caught up with dax and dow
we should get some more volatility until direction is more defined
its pretty bullish
a break needs to have 7400 area as supp
scalp shorts only
ftsedaytrader on twitter has been shorting the rallies..when it should have been bought...
we should get some more volatility until direction is more defined
its pretty bullish
a break needs to have 7400 area as supp
scalp shorts only
ftsedaytrader on twitter has been shorting the rallies..when it should have been bought...
Dentalfloss
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NAS 100
Moneylender
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DAX will be an interesting open, trend is up but we are at the top of a channel!
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
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dow is lagging...a tad
Moneylender
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Morning world. Am short on dax!
Dentalfloss
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G'day folks,
My analysis was wrong on the ftse last week...should have known better...I stood aside or scalped short when I should have been long as it was bullish...so missed the main moves. Thinking and looking for a top...classic lol
Still bullish as 007 says...we'll probably get some scalps off 7450...but 7430 as sp is looking good if it holds we could be looking at 7500. if not look for a bounce around 7400-10.
WTI is looking bullish, as is cable.....
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The week kicks off with something akin to a cacophony of inputs in data, political and central bank terms, but whether any form of sustained market reaction is ultimately discernible once the 'shouting is over', looks to be highly debatable, even if the obvious complacency and lack of market reaction function underlines the current outsized 'gap risk' in many asset classes. The ransomware cyber-security attack may well prove to be the most enduring concern, given its and similar cyber attacks' wide-ranging potential as an economic disruptor. The Anglo-Saxon melodrama queens may well find some 'the end of EU is nigh' narrative in the breakdown of the OeVP/SPOe coalition in Austria, though this would be the usual display of arrogance, ignorance and mis-information; rather more real is UK Brexit Minister Davis' admission that the UK and EU are on a collision course in their negotiations, and the risk of a spectacular failure if both sides continue to talk at, rather than to each other is starting to rise very sharply. In Germany, the relatively emphatic CDU win in the NRW state election, and a very strong showing for the FDP, as suggested hints not only at another four years of Merkel, but also the potential for a change of federal government on September 24. Statistically, China's overnight run of data continues to contend with the more significant theme of Chinese authorities efforts to rein in on leverage and credit in its financial sector. Be that as it may the Industrial Production reading at 6.5% y/y vs. a forecast of 7.0% and March 7.6% was particularly poor, even if the Private Investment component (6.9% y.t.d.) of the Fixed Asset Investment (8.9% y/y) remained healthy. Beyond those items, the US NY Fed Manufacturing and NAHB Housing Market surveys look to be the only likely statistical market mover, though the run of remaining Q1 GDP readings across Europe bears some scrutiny. The NY Fed Manufacturing survey has lagged many other regional surveys, even if the region as a whole has never been much of a proxy for national trends, with the May reading seen edging up to 7.0 from 6.5. The question which lingers is: at what point might the surge in consumer and business optimism following the election start to fade, given that the Trump administration has thus far delivered precious little of what was promised. The week's US housing sector data (tomorrow sees Housing Starts) kick off with the NAHB Housing Market Index unchanged at a very robust 68, just short of March's 71 cyclical high.
Updated: The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 15 to 19 May 2017
- A relatively busy week for US (Housing Starts, NAHB, Industrial Production, NY & Philly Fed surveys) and UK (CPI, PPI, Unemployment, Average Earnings, Retail Sales) statistics, while Japan looks to Private Machinery Orders and Q1 prov. GDP, Australia sees Unemployment, Germany looks to PPI and various EU countries publish Q1 GDP, and Canada has CPI and Retail Sales. UK inflation data are likely to make for uncomfortable for the BoE's MPC, with headline CPI & CPIH seen up 0.4% m/m, which would see the y/y rate push up to 2.6% for 2.3%, and core CPI to 2.2% y/y from 1.8%, the more so given that Average Weekly Earnings are seen fractionally higher at 2.4% y/y headline and unchanged ex-Bonus at 2.2% y/y, confirming negative real wage growth. The rebound in inflation also predicates expectations that UK Retail Sales will not manage to fully reverse the sharp 1.8% m/m fall in March, with a 1.1% m/m bounce expected. Wednesday's labour report is also forecast to show Q1 Employment growth stalling with a modest +21K after +38K in the Dec-Feb period. Japan's provisional Q1 is expected to post a 0.5% q/q rise (1.7% SAAR), which would be encouraging, if it were not for the fact that the GDP deflator is forecast to fall 0.7% y/y (vs. Q4 -0.1%), which in turn predicates expectations that Q1 Nominal GDP will slow to just 0.1% after Q4's 0.4%. The falling deflator also accounts for the upbeat appearance of an expected pick-up in Private Consumption to 0.6% from Flat q/q in Q4, but cannot disguise an expected 0.4% q/q drop in Business Spending, though this would follow Q4's +2.0% q/q, and can be at least partly construed as a reactive correction.
- Politically, there will be the weekend's China OBOR conference and the German NRW state election to digest at the start of the week. The UK general election rumbles on, US Trade Secretary Ross meets with his Mexican counterparty Guajardo to discuss various Trade disputes, and Iran holds its presidential election on Friday.
- Central banks: there will be plenty of Fed and ECB speakers, while central banks in Chile, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland and Zambia are all seen keeping rates on hold.
- Govt Bonds: Germany sells EUR 1.0 Bln 30-yr, Spain offers ca EUR 5.0 Bln of 2020, 2026 & 2027 Bonos, France offers EUR 6.5-7.5 Bln of 2020 & 202 OATs and EUR 1.5-2.0 Bln of OATeis, while Italy brings a new retail targetted BTP Italia over the week. The UK re-opens its 2057 Index-Linked Gilt via syndication and taps £1.75 Bln of 2019 conventional Gilt, while the US sells 10-yr TIPS.
- Corporate earnings: Alibaba, Campbell Soup, Cisco Systems, Deere & Co, Home Depot, NTT, Tencent, Target, Vodafone and Wal-Mart top the list of companies reporting.
- Energy/Commodities: Indonesia sees the annual Coaltrans Asia conference, while London hosts Platinum Week, and the EIA publishes it drilling productivity report. However it will be oil markets which are once again the focal point with prices getting a boost from the announcement that Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to extend the production cap for a further 9 months, though it is not clear whether all participants to the original agreement will extend their participation, leaving aside questions over compliance, and rising output not only from the US shale producers, but also those countries where conflict and sabotage has been restraining production, such as Libya.
from Marc Ostwald
********************
The week kicks off with something akin to a cacophony of inputs in data, political and central bank terms, but whether any form of sustained market reaction is ultimately discernible once the 'shouting is over', looks to be highly debatable, even if the obvious complacency and lack of market reaction function underlines the current outsized 'gap risk' in many asset classes. The ransomware cyber-security attack may well prove to be the most enduring concern, given its and similar cyber attacks' wide-ranging potential as an economic disruptor. The Anglo-Saxon melodrama queens may well find some 'the end of EU is nigh' narrative in the breakdown of the OeVP/SPOe coalition in Austria, though this would be the usual display of arrogance, ignorance and mis-information; rather more real is UK Brexit Minister Davis' admission that the UK and EU are on a collision course in their negotiations, and the risk of a spectacular failure if both sides continue to talk at, rather than to each other is starting to rise very sharply. In Germany, the relatively emphatic CDU win in the NRW state election, and a very strong showing for the FDP, as suggested hints not only at another four years of Merkel, but also the potential for a change of federal government on September 24. Statistically, China's overnight run of data continues to contend with the more significant theme of Chinese authorities efforts to rein in on leverage and credit in its financial sector. Be that as it may the Industrial Production reading at 6.5% y/y vs. a forecast of 7.0% and March 7.6% was particularly poor, even if the Private Investment component (6.9% y.t.d.) of the Fixed Asset Investment (8.9% y/y) remained healthy. Beyond those items, the US NY Fed Manufacturing and NAHB Housing Market surveys look to be the only likely statistical market mover, though the run of remaining Q1 GDP readings across Europe bears some scrutiny. The NY Fed Manufacturing survey has lagged many other regional surveys, even if the region as a whole has never been much of a proxy for national trends, with the May reading seen edging up to 7.0 from 6.5. The question which lingers is: at what point might the surge in consumer and business optimism following the election start to fade, given that the Trump administration has thus far delivered precious little of what was promised. The week's US housing sector data (tomorrow sees Housing Starts) kick off with the NAHB Housing Market Index unchanged at a very robust 68, just short of March's 71 cyclical high.
Updated: The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 15 to 19 May 2017
- A relatively busy week for US (Housing Starts, NAHB, Industrial Production, NY & Philly Fed surveys) and UK (CPI, PPI, Unemployment, Average Earnings, Retail Sales) statistics, while Japan looks to Private Machinery Orders and Q1 prov. GDP, Australia sees Unemployment, Germany looks to PPI and various EU countries publish Q1 GDP, and Canada has CPI and Retail Sales. UK inflation data are likely to make for uncomfortable for the BoE's MPC, with headline CPI & CPIH seen up 0.4% m/m, which would see the y/y rate push up to 2.6% for 2.3%, and core CPI to 2.2% y/y from 1.8%, the more so given that Average Weekly Earnings are seen fractionally higher at 2.4% y/y headline and unchanged ex-Bonus at 2.2% y/y, confirming negative real wage growth. The rebound in inflation also predicates expectations that UK Retail Sales will not manage to fully reverse the sharp 1.8% m/m fall in March, with a 1.1% m/m bounce expected. Wednesday's labour report is also forecast to show Q1 Employment growth stalling with a modest +21K after +38K in the Dec-Feb period. Japan's provisional Q1 is expected to post a 0.5% q/q rise (1.7% SAAR), which would be encouraging, if it were not for the fact that the GDP deflator is forecast to fall 0.7% y/y (vs. Q4 -0.1%), which in turn predicates expectations that Q1 Nominal GDP will slow to just 0.1% after Q4's 0.4%. The falling deflator also accounts for the upbeat appearance of an expected pick-up in Private Consumption to 0.6% from Flat q/q in Q4, but cannot disguise an expected 0.4% q/q drop in Business Spending, though this would follow Q4's +2.0% q/q, and can be at least partly construed as a reactive correction.
- Politically, there will be the weekend's China OBOR conference and the German NRW state election to digest at the start of the week. The UK general election rumbles on, US Trade Secretary Ross meets with his Mexican counterparty Guajardo to discuss various Trade disputes, and Iran holds its presidential election on Friday.
- Central banks: there will be plenty of Fed and ECB speakers, while central banks in Chile, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland and Zambia are all seen keeping rates on hold.
- Govt Bonds: Germany sells EUR 1.0 Bln 30-yr, Spain offers ca EUR 5.0 Bln of 2020, 2026 & 2027 Bonos, France offers EUR 6.5-7.5 Bln of 2020 & 202 OATs and EUR 1.5-2.0 Bln of OATeis, while Italy brings a new retail targetted BTP Italia over the week. The UK re-opens its 2057 Index-Linked Gilt via syndication and taps £1.75 Bln of 2019 conventional Gilt, while the US sells 10-yr TIPS.
- Corporate earnings: Alibaba, Campbell Soup, Cisco Systems, Deere & Co, Home Depot, NTT, Tencent, Target, Vodafone and Wal-Mart top the list of companies reporting.
- Energy/Commodities: Indonesia sees the annual Coaltrans Asia conference, while London hosts Platinum Week, and the EIA publishes it drilling productivity report. However it will be oil markets which are once again the focal point with prices getting a boost from the announcement that Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to extend the production cap for a further 9 months, though it is not clear whether all participants to the original agreement will extend their participation, leaving aside questions over compliance, and rising output not only from the US shale producers, but also those countries where conflict and sabotage has been restraining production, such as Libya.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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eurjpy in horizontal rez
pump r dump
4 hour bars
pump r dump
4 hour bars
Dentalfloss
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dax..12740..?
prev rez
prev rez
