Trading the NQ

[Kleft]

Where are we?

I'm trying to figure out what is most relevant in regards to the NQ moving forward, weekly and daily charts attached.

Price had largely moved sideways from July 2015 until August 2016 when it eventually pushed higher but this BO didn't get far and price ranged again. The daily shows the most recent range and the new uptrend from the breakout.

Ranges can be used as a reset to track new demand supply balances, but, I wonder if its a mistake to overlook everything that led up to July 2015.

 

[Gring0]

I'm trying to figure out what is most relevant in regards to the NQ moving forward, weekly and daily charts attached.

Price had largely moved sideways from July 2015 until August 2016 when it eventually pushed higher but this BO didn't get far and price ranged again. The daily shows the most recent range and the new uptrend from the breakout.

Ranges can be used as a reset to track new demand supply balances, but, I wonder if its a mistake to overlook everything that led up to July 2015.

Learn from the past but don't get married to it.

 

[dbphoenix]

FWIW, the NQ reached the top of its trend channel yesterday and tested it this morning.

 

[dbphoenix]

FWIW, the NQ reached the top of its trend channel yesterday and tested it this morning.

NQ down 50pts so far today.

 

[dbphoenix]

Trump’s ‘big fat bubble’ trouble in the stock market

Shiller PE Ratio

 

[Gring0]

The trend still seems up but is going quite parabolically. To expect some kind of a pull back is to be expected. Considering there are no previous S/R levels there is no way for a human to identify a turning point.

 

[piphoe]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-speech-congress-235276

Trump empty promises seem to be driving this bull run lately, till Tuesday.

Thats where the rubber meets the road.

I don't think he can pull it off

And the markets are at all time highs, what else do you want more all time highs? and why expect it

The question I ask myself is, is Tuesday already built in?

 

[dbphoenix]

The trend still seems up but is going quite parabolically. To expect some kind of a pull back is to be expected. Considering there are no previous S/R levels there is no way for a human to identify a turning point.

A potential turning point is provided by the UL of the weekly trend channel, as noted last week. A second is the test, which occurred last night and this morning. Price will break the DL at 4325. The LSL is 5299. "Resistance" is provided by the failure of sellers to find buyers.

 

[dbphoenix]

Price makes a HH to a higher UL of the TC, stopping out the short trade off the short-term DL break. The short-term DL is now fanned.

 

[Gring0]

Price makes a HH to a higher UL of the TC, stopping out the short trade off the short-term DL break. The short-term DL is now fanned.

Are you looking at the hourly interval for the DL?

 

[dbphoenix]

The daily, beginning 12/30.

 

[dbphoenix]

Posted 2/9 to another thread, though I didn't think we'd get here so quickly:

As a trader, whether or not the system "implodes" is irrelevant to me. It imploded in 2000 and again in 2008. And it will implode again. At the moment, I'm looking toward 5400 for the NQ and have been since November, but as this has been a news-driven market for months, I'm on the watch for important changes in market sentiment. So far I see no signs of it.

 

[Jericho574]

Price makes a HH to a higher UL of the TC, stopping out the short trade off the short-term DL break. The short-term DL is now fanned.

Where was the short-term DL break?

 

[dbphoenix]

I was referring to the DL before the break, beginning with the first week of February. As of now, after being fanned, it begins at 12/30.

I don't draw many lines on my charts. I've been more interested in the steady march of higher lows since 2/2. The break of these on the 23rd and 24th was clear, and I considered this to be important given that it was at the UL of the TC. After becoming accustomed to this, one is able to see a change in character without drawing lines at all, in real time. Price then retraced two days ago, triggered the short yesterday, and the short was SO today.

I've pointed out in the book and probably somewhere in these threads that trading off very tight lines carries its own risk. However, if the trade is successful, one is able to enter much earlier than he would if he were to wait for multiple confirmations. And the risk is minimal if, as in this case, the REV takes place at an important level. And we've been working our way toward this level since early 2016, over 1500pts ago. And the downside is substantial, even if only to the median. However, after such a rise, one can't expect price to turn on a dime. We go back, again, to price risk and information risk and avoiding biases no matter what.

Those who have put in their observation time will know what the endgame is for parabolic moves. This doesn't mean that one shouldn't enter on a RET here if the opportunity presents itself. But he must have assessed the risk and, again, avoid bias.

I was interested to see somebody from Barron's post a chart just like mine, beginning with 2009. He saw the possibility of a 5% correction. However, a 10% correction would take us back to the median of this channel, and it isn't as though this hasn't happened before.

 

[Gring0]

Interesting times again. I see another DL breach and a Ret. Whether it turns out to be so or a BO + pullback leading to another leg up is up in the air. OB conditions are not to be taken lightly. "You snooze you lose" gained its reputation around these levels.

 

[Gring0]

Nq

NQ Weekly: Flirting with OB territory.
NQ Daily: DL breach and small TR.
NQ Hourly: Two TRs.

Price is stalling here and it's hard to tell which side the demand or supply dynamic is going to end up favouring. Considering price is at levels more suited for shorting potential after a run up I am alert to any sudden changes in activity that might indicate a time to enter. On the hourly there's a TR inside a TR indicating a state of indecision. If price ends up moving up I sit pat.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

So today's activity confirms the RET off the high from the 1st and the DL can be fanned. Whether price holds here, continues its ascent, or fails to advance remains to be seen.

 

[Splitlink]

So today's activity confirms the RET off the high from the 1st and the DL can be fanned. Whether price holds here, continues its ascent, or fails to advance remains to be seen.

Thanks, db. I trade NQ and FT and, yesterday, as it happens, I took a long on NQ and made 10 points, recouping previous losses on FT. Got my money back on the day.

However, it's a difficult market, for me, at least.

 

[dbphoenix]

The difficulty most likely lies in the market's being almost entirely news-driven for the past few months, and the half-life of news-driven moves is short. This makes keeping the bigger picture in mind even more important, even if one isn't trading it.

 

[Gring0]

Demand seems to have gone on a vacation today. Perhaps this the beginning. The fact that the daily didn't continue higher and then fell back into the TR is worthy of note. The failure around the previous swing high and then demand weakening are the kind of signs that raise a flag. Daily has broken the DL and price couldn't maintain staying in the BO territory. Maybe there's some news but I don't follow news much. It's the bigger picture of price being in the OB territory that's worthy of attention.