Trading the ES (E mini) December 2003

I have not traded today as I have been looking at overlay set ups. I one I posted over the weekend looks good and works well in hindsight but I do not think it can work in real time.
 
08-12

quite a hard day with regard to pivot decision. Clear tech lagging (neg divs) vs. clear BIX leadership in SPX (pos div).

this is how I c the action. Blue line - courtesy of Mark_m, very sharp reverse divergence, which coupled with following regular pos div of Tick vs. ES and Macd of Cash pos div on Comp was a bang-on signal to reverse to L.

More than 10 pts, realistically about 15 on the table. Again, only a 3rd secured.

BTW my moves were:

- 3 L scalps, +1.5 pts, flat and +1.5 pts. The last one shud've obviously been kept in trade.

- S @ 64.25, cover @ 61.50. Which shud've (obviously in hindsight again) bn reversed to L.
 

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I've been studying ES/Tick as I trade the INDU, and what jumped out at me was the short at the double bottom which OBVIOUSLY you guys know.
This reverse tick div though - Is it possible that this is simply a clear "faking" signal? Is it possible to put some sort of %/figure value on these moves in order to help recognise them, and therefore pick out the "real" moves in the price action? I know nothing about it but I'm just thinking out loud so to speak!
Cheers
Q
 
Q - I started looking at rev divs only recently - thx to Mark_m - and so far I am impressed. However I wud not trade on a rev div ALONE as it is a weaker form of divergence. However, as an "all'armi!" signal :) - similar to macd of tick div against tick - I think it is brilliant. need to investigate more tho.

Stoploss - may I quote u: "slap bang in the middle of S&R" - what do u mean matey? S/R switch on cash? on tick MA? now I am lost by your lingua :)
 
Here you go

Mate, maybe I am reading this wrong. Here is the the tick entry and in a minute I will post the ES.
 

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This is what I mean

China

As you can see, our target for any short is not that great because we will be shorting two points above support.

Do yeh get me geez
 

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matey - 2 pts above yesterday's support I suppose u r meaning, right?

if so - well I tend no to look so much at previous days' levels. I know i am missing some info not doing so, but it's all about effort management imo - if u put in 50% more effort for 10% more information - u r a bit exhausting yrself innit? :) I am really sceptical abt overloading this system with too much less relevant information.

besides, if u get a shallow move due to some level from the previous days holding strong - u'll suss it from market intensity - tick as my favourite :)
 
China,
I see what you mean about the rev divs being a heads up like yer MACD of Tick/Tick. I'll look into it - might be a day or 2 though as I'm a bit busy at the moment.

Q,
What do you mean by % value? I agree that it is a faking signal - don't ask me why, but more often than not these sharp spikes in Tick taking out previous High or Low are not followed through on price - thus reinforcing the HH or LL on price as a good signal.
 
Trading books

Hi All

I know u're all heavy into the TA. Don't want to waste ur time but has anyone bought trading books from AMAZON.COM b4 as opposed to .CO.UK? Did u have to pay any special excise duty or anything? I want to buy a few highly rec'd trading books and I find that .COM has better prices and stock for the same items.

Thanks 4 ur help. :cheesy:
 
Hi Stoploss, China, Sandpiper,

Been printing and going thru this thread trying to figure out what u guyz are talking about and failing miserably :(

Any chance of someone posting a summary on the basics of how u use TICK etc?

Any useful links or recommended books would be great.

Cheers
 
mark_m
I was trying to think if there was a pre-determined way to look at the difference in Tick LL/HH produced by the Fake move and then infer if it's likely to have been a fake move or not. ie. if it drops/rises from previous LL/HH by x it sets up an alert, but if it drops/rises by y then it's just part of the usual activity.
Not sure if I'm making any sense here, but maybe because you've been watching it for longer, you might have a way of seeing some pattern or other which sub-consciously makes you sit up and pay attention (so to speak), and if so does this have a pattern to it?
Please feel free to ignore this rambling if apropriate!!!!!!!!!
Cheers
Q
 
Mom,
I sure one of the guys will give you an explanation later. However there are some real gems tucked away throughout. I have been back to the start a few months ago and printed every single page!
Well worth it to me as a total beginner.
cheers,
hampy
 
Rosso, Hampy - thx - I've printed off the summary and am going thru it - it's just that my brain hurts :)
 
Mombasa - fire away any Qs u've got. Will be glad to help.

All'armi! :) - something u need to keep in mind if u trade on Tick divs. Tick by definition is Buy/Sell Intensity NOW and has a rather short memory. Arguably a big event during regular hours, WIPES THE SLATE CLEAN, and obviously Fed can be quite a big event :) If u r applying Tick divs using 2 time anchors from before Fed and after Fed - BE VERY MUCH ON YR TOES!

An abberation day like yesterday so far right after 13:00 pivot - however (forgetting about Fed for a sec) the case for reversal is much weaker than yesterday, mainly coz of BIX. 40 ema and LP resistance at the mo across indices. BUT IT'S A FED DAY! :)
 
Is FOMC always so choppy

I totally missed this move down. All my betas were diverging positively. However, the bottom was well defined. Waiting to see if we break todays low.
 

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Stoploss

respectfully disagree mate :)

all techies below 240 and 600 ema/5min, spx just hugging it, dow above. bix underperforming within spx. Neg divs across indices imo.

the only twist is that (like yesterday) dow is in pos territory and holds ground as techies make LLs. the case for abberation is still alive, but much weaker imo than yesterday - just because yesterday it was also supported by bix.

my opinion of coz :)
 
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