Trading Stock Indexes

[2be]

Here is cycle analysis for the next 30 days. Looking for up move for next week as a general bias.

Thank you, as usual you have put a good amount of work and thoughts in working out the cycle solution.

I was mainly shorting DOW today, and have been very conservative with the PT.

Posted some trades today, and tried to explain the reasons for entries and exits, otherwise posts are less useful.
Actually IMHO posting while trading is adding more stress to myself, and I would not encourage others to do so.
Occasional live call is ok, but I do not expect other traders to spend so much effort which IMHO is , or can be distraction.


I find it difficult to explain it all on this forum, and certainly more difficult to do it while actively trading.
Some parts are less likely to be of use to others, and other details might be more problematic, but rest assured I do NOT claim to have some special tool, indicator or knowledge, apart of what is publicly available in books, articles and the like.

Good preparation before the session is very important, just as being calm, generally rested and well focused during trading is also essential.
It is impossible to eliminate the risk however much effort one is prepared to waste on trying to do so, but it does not mean that the risk is not to be managed.

Posted S&P and DOW after US session close, with some levels for Monday.

Good weekend to all,
"be

 

[4xis2ez]

Hi 2be. I'm not going to trade stock index intraday anymore. Friday was mostly range bound and that is harder to trade profitably. I'm looking at trading breakouts on stock and forex also. On Nadex, forex binaries have experation's every 4 hours. This will suit me better than trying to trade one market. And I can complete my hourly cycle solution within 10 minutes upon notification of a breakout to confirm the breakout should continue.

 

[4xis2ez]

Possible trade in gbpjpy on Sunday evening.

 

[4xis2ez]

Here is gbpjpy on 30 minute bar charts. Looking to go long Monday afternoon.

 

[2be]

Hi 2be. I'm not going to trade stock index intraday anymore. Friday was mostly range bound and that is harder to trade profitably. I'm looking at trading breakouts on stock and forex also. On Nadex, forex binaries have experation's every 4 hours. This will suit me better than trying to trade one market. And I can complete my hourly cycle solution within 10 minutes upon notification of a breakout to confirm the breakout should continue.

Hi 4xis2ez,

Trading any instrument that range demands an adjustment, if one prefers trending conditions.
Due to volatility I have switched to Indexes, mainly DOW and DAX.
It suits me atm, and on intra day, I am trying to establish a possible span of the moves and take very often conservative profits.
I use futures for longer (in duration) trades, and when I am correct I can supplement these positions trading either in that same direction, or against these futures positions, thus having a kind of a hedge.
Futures expire every three months, with 6 pips spread during trading day (London + US session) and 10 pips outside these sessions, but there are not overnight interest charges, so they can be held for a long time without additional cost, with reasonable leverage.

Every instrument has some specific characteristics and it makes sense to trade forex by trading binaries, but that is an area I have no experience atm. Have traded a bit in that area and found that the platform pricing was out of sync, and gave it up.
I wish you well and good profits in trading.

2be

 

[4xis2ez]

I did stock market intraday cycle analysis for Monday, June 17. May trade European stock index Monday morning.

 

[4xis2ez]

About the fundamentals of the stock market, it looks like China won't budge on the trade issue. Could be big negative for stock market Monday.

 

[2be]

Please remember that Wednesday 21st June at 4:30pm is the expiration date for the quarterly futures as indicated on one of the platforms I trade with.
Please check it with your particular platform as the date might be different.

Some platforms have different arrangements in please including automatic roll over, which can make a difference if one actively trades futures using any given strategy.

I personally prefer to close and open new positions manually, which IMHO gives me more control in regards to exit and entry levels, and also I can adjust the size of the position.
So close to the expiration date I look to close rather that to enlarge the position.
Will start to build new multi entry position o or after the 19th July, and have fresh three months run for the set spread (price of the round trip)

Take time and watch the spreads between the cash and the futures, interesting

 

[4xis2ez]

Currently long Dow binaries on Nadex till the end of the week. Looking for stock rally this week.

 

[4xis2ez]

I did stock market intraday cycle analysis for Monday, June 17. May trade European stock index Monday morning.

Stock index did decline based on my 30 minute cycle analysis. From the expected timing with a high at 5:30 NY time zone and dropped till 6:45. I didn't trade it though.


.

 

[2be]

Stock index did decline based on my 30 minute cycle analysis. From the expected timing with a high at 5:30 NY time zone and dropped till 6:45. I didn't trade it though.


.

that was a good statistical observation embodied into intra day cycles - really good work 4x !!!!
Shorting to Fri session close worked well too.

The people that have not studied the cycles are less aware of the amount of expertise and work required.
Thanks for posting your counts!
Cycles are worked out looking at tons of statistics as opposed to heuristic reaction/s we are all tempted to use exclusively. (Daniel Kahneman - Thinking fast and slow, is a book worth studying)

Had some reasonable traders on DOW, long after positive diversion, then rotation to short from session H hitting third time with a negative diversion, all trade during the NYSE session.

Flat atm, will establish a mid term trade sometime later.
Feeling lazy atm and ready for time out.

Good trades to all

2be

 

[4xis2ez]

Day trading cycles for US stock indexes. Cycle analysis for Tuesday, June 18.

 

[4xis2ez]

Currently long Dow binaries on Nadex till the end of the week. Looking for stock rally this week.

Closed this trade and looking to day trade Tuesday.

 

[2be]

there still are intersession gaps on DOW that have not been closed
Futures spreads are pointing to an upside scenario on Indexes
However my concern are these unfilled gaps, please check the previously posted charts few days ago

 

[4xis2ez]

Updated cycle analysis for Tuesday with two time frames compared. High probability trade when both time frames line up in the same direction.

 

[4xis2ez]

Here's my computer desktop I am looking at. I have my cycle solutions at the bottom with the SP500 5 minute chart. The vertical lines on the right are the approximate time of my expected cycle move from the high to the low later in the trading session.

 

[2be]

Hi 4xis2ez

Your MC1 (of equivalent of it) provided really useful direction, as often it has been the case.
US session opened with over 150 pips from the last session close, and that gap has not been closed neither has there been any attempt to do so.
The difference between the DOW cash and the DOW futures has been rather large (in the region of +15 pips for June fut and +21 pips for Sept futures) indicating a move up.
Certainly not a ranging day!
I liked your trading approach having well hedged shorts on intra day by your established position on a longer TF.
That is a very good approach (IMHO)
Thanks for your contribution 4x!!!

2be

 

[2be]

S&P and DOW before the US session open WED 19th June 2019

Great move up during last session, when the GAP between the open and the last session close on DOW is in the region of 150 pips there is a stronger static possibility that that gap will not close, but be vigilant, it is not 100% so.

Also please note Volume and Range distribution during the session

-a word of explanation - These charts are cash continuous on MT4 - only tick volume available on MT4 - much less precise, but nevertheless indicative.

Session Volume is an accumulated volume of the session using tick volume on a given TF (M30 in this case). light green colour,
Volume by time is a projected volume using the data of the last five trading days, the Gray shaded bars, and the blue and red bars are the actual volume bars as it happens during the day.

Session Range is also set to take into account the Ranges of the last five trading days, and these projected ranges are displayed in a shaded Gray, the actual range is displayed as a white barn, higher bar than the previous means increased range during that session. The projected bars stay unchanged for the whole session, white bars adjust accordingly with the increase of the session range as the session progresses.

I use it to gain some statistically important data displayed in useful way, easy to see at a glance.
I also find VSA a very useful concept, including the shape of session candle bar versus volume.

US session close is an important level for my trading strategy, and so are Pivots.
For FX pairs the US session close is also important, but the application of that level is a bit different in trading FX as compared to trading indices,

Have a look and see some repeating patterns on the charts posted below, both are MT4 M30

If you listen to the news, as I do occasionally, I only take it seriously looking at the numbers of the data release, otherwise majority of it is a comedy, involving highly paid adults creating havoc in people's (traders)minds if allowed, your profit is the very last thing they are concern with, and guess what, few hours after the market's move, they know it all, that the market has moved - interesting.
It is profitable to be selective as what we listen to and what we read, and how we interpret it.

Wishing you many good trades

2be

 

[4xis2ez]

I'm now long Dow touch brackets on Nadex for this week. They will profit on continued up side move of stock indexes.

 

[4xis2ez]

Hi 4xis2ez

Your MC1 (of equivalent of it) provided really useful direction, as often it has been the case.
US session opened with over 150 pips from the last session close, and that gap has not been closed neither has there been any attempt to do so.
The difference between the DOW cash and the DOW futures has been rather large (in the region of +15 pips for June fut and +21 pips for Sept futures) indicating a move up.
Certainly not a ranging day!
I liked your trading approach having well hedged shorts on intra day by your established position on a longer TF.
That is a very good approach (IMHO)
Thanks for your contribution 4x!!!

2be

It's what you can do with DP if you know the correct time frames. 7 turn points in one LM.