i would have said that would effect the price of oil
FWIW I'm looking to be converted to the ability to make trades exclusively on the basis of news, always open minded .![]()
Because historically, anyone who has taken the trouble to do so has been blasted with the ‘well, anyone could say that in retrospect’. Sort of understandably too.
It doesn't. I don't trade the news but one of the thing I look out for is a reversal pattern just after or during high impact news. Not that I care or know what the news actually is but I know when it is. And that for me, is enough.
News traders are more LongTerm w/bigger funds. Once the Announcements come out they formulate their positions.
For us smaller players, News for me is about opportunities. Crazy stories that have no bearing on the companies fundamentals. IE... AAPL and Steve Jobs Health. That story is those prime examples of when you NEED to be a News Trader. Not so much the news but the reactions to the news creates almost risk free trades. Over the years my biggest stock picking gains have been from News Stories.
So I do agree somewhat that the News part is over-rated.
Very good point here Bramble...
One of the problems I'd have with news trading singularly is with for example the M&S report I mentioned yesterday. Their directors and public relations dept. 'leak' over the weekend that figures may disappoint, shares fall 1.5% yesterday, heh presto the figures aren't as bad (surprise surprise:whistling) shares rise by 10% today whilst Stuart Rose does his thing on R4 etc. making out he's the 'saviour' of the middle classes.
News does have it's inheirant problems. Leakage, lake of regularity, etc...
But some of the big News leakages can be tracked via the Options market. I dont have the software to monitor for Option Volume Monitoring Dev.
My biggest problem with News trading is that there's not enough market movable news that can be played for income. Face it most of us on these boards are here to make money. Without the deep pockets; news trading wont pay my bills.
Bingo.Still yet to see a post to confirm specific news trading.
Bingo.Still yet to see a post to confirm specific news trading.
Announcements and news are two diff things in my opinion.
Yahoo vs. Microsoft was everywhere and that was very tradeable.
no technicals, just fundamental research bolstered by 'stuff' (freely available in the mainstream media) that you've then traded succesfully.
OK, gonna make one post only on this thread as this seems like a fairly pointless argument. The 'news' today tells me the following: we looking at another equity capitulation here. FASB mark to mkt change tomorrow should see the financials bounce, then quickly get demolished as people realise it leaves them even scarier and Geithner's big idea dead in the water. G20 will be a disappointment no matter how it's spun as Merkel and Sarkozy have thankfully retained their sanity (USD/EUR back toward 1.25 their punishment for not rolling over). ADP data suggests non-farms will be rubbish again on Friday. S&P earnings start Tuesday and will be dreadful (potentially ex Financials if the FASB have their way, but no-one will believe them anyway) - look for EPS expectations to come down to about $45 and people to start talking about 500 again on the S&P (~3000 on the FTSE).
If that isn't instant enough for your gratification, look for long gilt futures to back off to 122.50 tomorrow when they try to auction a 30yr that nobody wants (though I'd be a buyer on weakness).
If none of the above happens: I'll lose some money (I'll live) and you'll get to feel good about yourself, but you'll still have your head up your ****
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erm..thanks for that. Head up ar5e? not so sure. Not gonna count up the on line economic feeds/news feeds/journals I subscribe to suffice to say it's considerable. However, I don't use them to trade. I read them, absorb the info. enjoy all the noise/opinion but that's about it.
You mention a bounce followed by "quickly demolished" can you put a time scale on that; day, week, month...?
You mention the Euro getting 'punished' as part of Sarky/Merkels' 'deviation' from group think....are you for real? Good luck with that... :whistling
OK Guru master... 122.50 and lower hit on long gilt futs. Pure blind luck on my part.
You wanna use your voodoo to call an index and a level for tomorrow and we'll call it quits?