Trading is simple!

[tokyojoe]

1. Looking will do no good if one does not see. And one will not see unless and until he understands what it is he's looking at.

2. There has to be a way to put it into words and explain price movement. Or at least put into words what exactly needs to be studied in the markets. As opposed to, I assume, studying price movement directly. And how has focusing on somebody else's words worked out for you?

3. There are so many market participants making so many different decisions (rationally and irrationally) at the same time, that ultimately price movement becomes random. You're confusing randomness with unpredictability, as is common amongst beginners. They are not the same thing. Study the market, not what dilettantes say about the market.

4. . . . the main reason I think I am personally trading randomness is because the human brain cannot differentiate between random and nonrandom. Of course it can. That's what the Scientific Method is all about, a method which is generally unknown amongst beginners. If you don't know how to observe, collect data, consolidate that data, formulate and test hypotheses and calculate win:loss and profit:loss ratios, that's hardly the market's fault.

If you are in fact trading randomness, which one might hypothesize is one of the primary causes of your lack of success, and you've been doing this for more than six months, I suggest you find something else to do with your leisure time.

1. Agreed Db, understanding the very simple structure in front of our eyes will not be of any use if we do not understand the very simple intention on the other side of our trade.

2. Agree, I actually do not accept that there is a way to put into words the movement of price. Sure, this level, that level yadda yadda, but the movement, the speed of flow, the time of day, the sneaky sell off/buy up etc, words are not nearly enough to explain the different scenarios.

Funnily enough someone like Darktone explains it superbly in very funny posts, but you will need to understand the principle behind price movement & of intention etc.

3. Randomness is unpredictability really Db, the market is in constant flux, the main thing to understand is the randomness becomes your own reality when you announce to the market where your money is, the trick is understanding your place in the madness. Your position will (in the main) be smashed to bits & tested to destruction.
It is all well & good understanding where your best point of entry will be, but man alive, the fun starts after the third or fourth blow ! me being nervous n all

4. It is essential to differentiate between these two states. Differentiate between trade-able random flux & the glue.

It's principle is very simple at the end of the day......taking of stops....next.....taking of stops.....next......hmmmm I need a DT picture !

 

[dbphoenix]

1. Agreed Db, understanding the very simple structure in front of our eyes will not be of any use if we do not understand the very simple intention on the other side of our trade.

2. Agree, I actually do not accept that there is a way to put into words the movement of price. Sure, this level, that level yadda yadda, but the movement, the speed of flow, the time of day, the sneaky sell off/buy up etc, words are not nearly enough to explain the different scenarios.

Funnily enough someone like Darktone explains it superbly in very funny posts, but you will need to understand the principle behind price movement & of intention etc.

3. Randomness is unpredictability really Db, the market is in constant flux, the main thing to understand is the randomness becomes your own reality when you announce to the market where your money is, the trick is understanding your place in the madness. Your position will (in the main) be smashed to bits & tested to destruction.
It is all well & good understanding where your best point of entry will be, but man alive, the fun starts after the third or fourth blow ! me being nervous n all

4. It is essential to differentiate between these two states. Differentiate between trade-able random flux & the glue.

It's principle is very simple at the end of the day......taking of stops....next.....taking of stops.....next......hmmmm I need a DT picture !

You're combining what I quoted -- italicized in my original response -- with my response to it, in effect putting words in my mouth. Unintentionally, I'm sure.

2. The thesis was that one could learn price movement by reading descriptions of it, that price movement could be "put into words" and then studied, as opposed to studying price movement itself. One can of course describe what he sees, but one has to be looking at it in order to describe it.

3. No, sorry, randomness and unpredictability are not the same thing, and one who has studied price movement and the why and how of it understands that while the outcome of any particular trade may be unpredictable, the price movement itself is not random.

4. What I quoted was ". . . the main reason I think I am personally trading randomness is because the human brain cannot differentiate between random and nonrandom." My response was

Of course it can. That's what the Scientific Method is all about, a method which is generally unknown amongst beginners. If you don't know how to observe, collect data, consolidate that data, formulate and test hypotheses and calculate win:loss and profit:loss ratios, that's hardly the market's fault.​

There is no "random flux". We may not understand why price is moving a particular way in a particular direction at a particular time, but that doesn't make the movement random. By the same token, there is no such thing as "noise", though even some of those who claim to be "trading price" insist that there is.

 

[lawrence-lugar]

Trading IS simple...in theory -- but in real life...it seems like it's one of the most difficult things to master for Alot of people.

 

[dbphoenix]

Trading IS simple...in theory -- but in real life...it seems like it's one of the most difficult things to master for Alot of people.

Theory is translated into practice through a robust trading plan. But it seems as though few people know how to create one, or, if they know how, they don't want to. Go figure.

 

[NVP]

my philosophy is to just focus on what you can control .........

yourself ......(emotions , focus , experience , concentration)

your trading strategy ......(Market(s) , Trading system/Rules, MM & Capital , platform/broker , Timeframes, etc etc )

your execution .........(Entry , Exit)

.......the rest is at the mercy of the market ...........so be the best you can be in all controllable areas .......and the rest will look after itself ..........

N

 

[tokyojoe]

You're combining what I quoted -- italicized in my original response -- with my response to it, in effect putting words in my mouth. Unintentionally, I'm sure.

2. The thesis was that one could learn price movement by reading descriptions of it, that price movement could be "put into words" and then studied, as opposed to studying price movement itself. One can of course describe what he sees, but one has to be looking at it in order to describe it.

3. No, sorry, randomness and unpredictability are not the same thing, and one who has studied price movement and the why and how of it understands that while the outcome of any particular trade may be unpredictable, the price movement itself is not random.

4. What I quoted was ". . . the main reason I think I am personally trading randomness is because the human brain cannot differentiate between random and nonrandom." My response was

Of course it can. That's what the Scientific Method is all about, a method which is generally unknown amongst beginners. If you don't know how to observe, collect data, consolidate that data, formulate and test hypotheses and calculate win:loss and profit:loss ratios, that's hardly the market's fault.​

There is no "random flux". We may not understand why price is moving a particular way in a particular direction at a particular time, but that doesn't make the movement random. By the same token, there is no such thing as "noise", though even some of those who claim to be "trading price" insist that there is.

I think you may be mistaking my bluntness in terminology for a lack of understanding by the look of it DB.

Perhaps the difference here is "thesis" as opposed to my own personal interaction with the live market (well, the synthetic side anyway)

Anyhoo, I didn't intend to put words into your mouth, so you were right....again.

 

[dbphoenix]

I think you may be mistaking my bluntness in terminology for a lack of understanding by the look of it DB.

Perhaps the difference here is "thesis" as opposed to my own personal interaction with the live market (well, the synthetic side anyway)

Perhaps it would be best to go back to what rexlord said in the first place, then my response to it, followed by your response to one or the other, if doing all that is worth the doing.

Or just beginning again from scratch.

If your chief points are that price movement cannot be put into words and that price movement is random, I've addressed the latter many times over the years and doing so further would not likely accomplish much. One's beliefs are not changed so easily. And if one can make a living by trading what he perceives to be random price movement, more power to him. I have yet to see any conclusive evidence that this is possible.

As for describing price movement in words, those who are interested may benefit from reading Wyckoff's year-long analysis of price movement, beginning with this post (there are five posts altogether). If one instead interprets price movement according to what some indicator does, he's trading an illusion.

 

[tokyojoe]

Perhaps it would be best to go back to what rexlord said in the first place, then my response to it, followed by your response to one or the other, if doing all that is worth the doing.

Or just beginning again from scratch.

If your chief points are that price movement cannot be put into words and that price movement is random, I've addressed the latter many times over the years and doing so further would not likely accomplish much. One's beliefs are not changed so easily. And if one can make a living by trading what he perceives to be random price movement, more power to him. I have yet to see any conclusive evidence that this is possible.

As for describing price movement in words, those who are interested may benefit from reading Wyckoff's year-long analysis of price movement, beginning with this post (there are five posts altogether). If one instead interprets price movement according to what some indicator does, he's trading an illusion.

Blimey Dp, it most certainly isn't worth the doing. Your posts are suggesting to me that you are perhaps very good at the theory.....but ??

Funny how you have taken me agreeing with your points, be it with my own words & you have taken it a little too literally.

This is a game of chance, it is simply having the nouse to work out how best to play this game of chance, if you are for one minute suggesting it is not a game of chance, then fair play mate & I will know to not respond to you or your posts again, because imo you are not trading !

I asked you once before if you are constantly making profit, I respect you & your view, I really do. I imagine you have seen all sorts of wannabees.

I have been one of the few people to openly say that I am not taking profit every day, as a day trader it is simply not always possible. I am very in tune with the game, thanks in part to some close friends, thanks in part to alot of hard work by myself.

Anyway, as you have been round the block many times over the years I am sure this is a cumbersome bore to have a hard knocker trying to tell you the craic.

Good luck in any case, your posts are mostly positive & helpful.

 

[dbphoenix]

Blimey Dp, it most certainly isn't worth the doing. Your posts are suggesting to me that you are perhaps very good at the theory.....but ??

Funny how you have taken me agreeing with your points, be it with my own words & you have taken it a little too literally.

This is a game of chance, it is simply having the nouse to work out how best to play this game of chance, if you are for one minute suggesting it is not a game of chance, then fair play mate & I will know to not respond to you or your posts again, because imo you are not trading !

I asked you once before if you are constantly making profit, I respect you & your view, I really do. I imagine you have seen all sorts of wannabees.

I have been one of the few people to openly say that I am not taking profit every day, as a day trader it is simply not always possible. I am very in tune with the game, thanks in part to some close friends, thanks in part to alot of hard work by myself.

Anyway, as you have been round the block many times over the years I am sure this is a cumbersome bore to have a hard knocker trying to tell you the craic.

Good luck in any case, your posts are mostly positive & helpful.

I make every effort to take words literally. To do otherwise invites misinterpretation and the sorts of threads that go on for hundreds of posts.

As to being a game of chance, no, sorry. If one trades as though it were a game of chance then it all likelihood he hasn't done the data compilation and analysis that will enable him to develop a trading plan that performs at a level better than chance. If instead he enters a series of trades with the expectation that they have no better than a 50/50 chance of success, it is unlikely that he will ever be trading enough size to make the effort worthwhile.

As to my "constantly" making a profit, of course not. But over a series of trades, yes. Why bother otherwise?

 

[tokyojoe]

I make every effort to take words literally. To do otherwise invites misinterpretation and the sorts of threads that go on for hundreds of posts.

As to being a game of chance, no, sorry. If one trades as though it were a game of chance then it all likelihood he hasn't done the data compilation and analysis that will enable him to develop a trading plan that performs at a level better than chance. If instead he enters a series of trades with the expectation that they have no better than a 50/50 chance of success, it is unlikely that he will ever be trading enough size to make the effort worthwhile.

As to my "constantly" making a profit, of course not. But over a series of trades, yes. Why bother otherwise?

Data compilation.....analysis, come on man, it's 2016 !! I've gone round the data analysis & data compilation block myself.
Trust me on this, coz I get the distinct impression that you are a very well meaning & intelligent guy, it's a game of chance mate.

I don't want to sound like some inside information guru, but if my best mate, a time served hard knock Essex-boy done good multimillionaire barrow-boy-trader tells me that retail are pure gamblers, then his word is worth a thousand words from others. He has built the systems from the ground up.

open position

test

test

yes ?

no ?

out

repeat

All with a plan of course.......mainly escaping the all seeing eye.

 

[tomorton]

Game of chance. Well I can only feel rather insulted.

 

[tokyojoe]

Game of chance. Well I can only feel rather insulted.

I am not for one minute suggesting that retail cannot make a profit, but it is a profit born of pure chance when in the day trading arena.

It comes down to knowing when to step in & when to stay out. This is actually the make or break of a successful session.

One of the best traders I know (actual real life person, shock horror) wouldn't touch day trading with a barge pole, it's long term, large position only for him.

Maybe he is you Tom

 

[dbphoenix]

I don't want to sound like some inside information guru, but if my best mate, a time served hard knock Essex-boy done good multimillionaire barrow-boy-trader tells me that retail are pure gamblers, then his word is worth a thousand words from others.

And he's absolutely right: the vast majority of retail traders are gamblers. Not only do they not have thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable trading plans, they have no desire to put one together.

But it does not then follow that retail trading is necessarily chance. It is chance only if one doesn't do the work.

 

[tokyojoe]

And he's absolutely right: the vast majority of retail traders are gamblers. Not only do they not have thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable trading plans, they have no desire to put one together.

But it does not then follow that retail trading is necessarily chance. It is chance only if one doesn't do the work.

Oh my !! thoroughly tested & consistently profitable trading plan !!!

As I said, the market is in constant flux, your TT&CPTP will not curve fit the flux.

Please be honest with me here (& please believe me when I say I am very much a glass half full guy) do you think a TT&CPTP helps you one little bit as your open position gets smashed to smithereens after entry ???

 

[dbphoenix]

Oh my !! thoroughly tested & consistently profitable trading plan !!!

As I said, the market is in constant flux, your TT&CPTP will not curve fit the flux.

Please be honest with me here (& please believe me when I say I am very much a glass half full guy) do you think a TT&CPTP helps you one little bit as your open position gets smashed to smithereens after entry ???

Yes. Has done for many years. It's not as if the knowledge is a big secret.

 

[tokyojoe]

Yes. Has done for many years. It's not as if the knowledge is a big secret.

Are you a daytrader ?

 

[dbphoenix]

Are you a daytrader ?

Reading my profile will save time.

 

[tomorton]

I am not for one minute suggesting that retail cannot make a profit, but it is a profit born of pure chance when in the day trading arena.

It comes down to knowing when to step in & when to stay out. This is actually the make or break of a successful session.

One of the best traders I know (actual real life person, shock horror) wouldn't touch day trading with a barge pole, it's long term, large position only for him.

Maybe he is you Tom

While I wouldn't touch daytrading with a barge pole, no, I'm not one of the best traders you know.

 

[SalvatoreD]

The problem is that often I have too often been trading. I walk into the excitement. Sometimes it would be worth to stay. Due to good risk management, I do not lose much.

 

[piphoe]

always easier trading with the trend, than against. for obvious reasons the price bias, i can be a little more wrong (with my entry)when trading with the trend. that "little more" leeway can be a huge edge.

the rubis, identifying the tend