counter_violent
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2003 low was 1.05040 , it was already close to that last week @ 1.05172. Do you mean 2002 area? Range 0.85730 - 1.05050
Fwiw, I have 0.92000 - 0.96000 pencilled in as a target zone.
2003 low was 1.05040 , it was already close to that last week @ 1.05172. Do you mean 2002 area? Range 0.85730 - 1.05050
Fwiw, I have 0.92000 - 0.96000 pencilled in as a target zone.
Oh I wasn't referring to an exact level although my reference was a break of this congestion area where its been for a while (look at monthly). Will probably look at eurjpy as the instrument if we get a no in Italy. Also on the lookout is Austria. As to targets I am looking at parity in eurusd.
Event update for the week
Monday
- uk services pmi. A deviation to the upside will offer a trade opportunity. I wouldn't trade it if it were not for the Italian referendum because would need a better price in eurgbp
- ISM non manufacturing pmi. A rate hike has been fully priced in so for this print i am looking for a significant deviation to the downside.
Tuesday
- RBA rates. There has been a growing trend of bad data coming from AU with temp employment increasing while perm has been shrinking. The expectation is for rates to stay unchanged. My focus will be on the statement to determine what the central bank forecasts. If they have a standpoint of staying on hold there we have the potential for carry trades. This all pins off China's continuing a steady recovery and a pickup in commodities. China has reduced domestic production which has started to feed a pickup in prices which support the Ausi.
-GDT price index. Be aware that the pm has stepped down in NZ so there will be a slight softening on the effects of a deviation here. If however it is to the downside then the 2 elements could come together for a nice sell.
Wednesday
- Aus GDP. Looking for a supportive number to feed carry trade expectations. If there is a deviation to the downside then keep in mind that it raises the possibility of the cenrtal bank lowering rates. While this will likely give a session sell opportunity it will dampen carry trades which i will be looking to get into.
- BOC rate decision. The last statement was dovish so will be looking at the statement for clues on future policy. We also have crude inventories out so another dovish statement alongside a deviation with a higher surplus in inventories will give a sell opportunity.
Thursday
-ECB. look for extension to QE program (if not might be a boost in EU)
Friday
China cpi - could trigger risk off if bad and also affect the outlook for AU.
Monday
- uk services pmi. A deviation to the upside will offer a trade opportunity. I wouldn't trade it if it were not for the Italian referendum because would need a better price in eurgbp
- ISM non manufacturing pmi. A rate hike has been fully priced in so for this print i am looking for a significant deviation to the downside.
Tuesday
- RBA rates. There has been a growing trend of bad data coming from AU with temp employment increasing while perm has been shrinking. The expectation is for rates to stay unchanged. My focus will be on the statement to determine what the central bank forecasts. If they have a standpoint of staying on hold there we have the potential for carry trades. This all pins off China's continuing a steady recovery and a pickup in commodities. China has reduced domestic production which has started to feed a pickup in prices which support the Ausi.
-GDT price index. Be aware that the pm has stepped down in NZ so there will be a slight softening on the effects of a deviation here. If however it is to the downside then the 2 elements could come together for a nice sell.
Wednesday
- Aus GDP. Looking for a supportive number to feed carry trade expectations. If there is a deviation to the downside then keep in mind that it raises the possibility of the cenrtal bank lowering rates. While this will likely give a session sell opportunity it will dampen carry trades which i will be looking to get into.
- BOC rate decision. The last statement was dovish so will be looking at the statement for clues on future policy. We also have crude inventories out so another dovish statement alongside a deviation with a higher surplus in inventories will give a sell opportunity.
Thursday
-ECB. look for extension to QE program (if not might be a boost in EU)
Friday
China cpi - could trigger risk off if bad and also affect the outlook for AU.
