Trade what you see, not what you think....

Little bit confused now by some posts. I would have thought the majority consider it to be a skill, so I don't see where this idea that a small % think it is a skill comes from.

Could you clairfy please Wallstreet?

If people thought it was a skill why would they:

- try to program it before they could do it
- use combinations of indicators to tell them when to trade
- buy EAs
- subscribe to alert services
- read candlesticks :whistling
- look at fractals
- use digital signal processing techniques and write books about applying them to time price series - and get lauded for it

etc. etc. etc

These things are solutions to what is perceived as a problem/puzzle. You know... find a 'pattern', find the probability of the pattern working, see if the the profit from it working outweighs the losses from it not working given the win rate, sit back relax and hire a monkey to repeat it for you.

This is not skill development, it is looking for pots of gold at the end of rainbows.
 
The difference cannot be properly appreciated until one has personal experience of being both a novice and a more experienced trader who over years of practicing the correct approach can really feel the market. So the bigger question is perhaps what individual qualities (or alternatively lack of qualities) stop most people from either reasoning out the right path for themselves or recognising the correct approach if it is pointed out by another?
Trouble is there is no correct approach.
No one will ever agree on that because it quite simply does not exist.
There may well be a correct approach based on personality traits, circumstance
and goals.
Everyone who has an opinion on the correct approach will be different.
So it follows the approach will naturally differ.

Some even feel the need to denigrate another approach merely because it is
personally unsuitable for them and / or they failed at it.
I've never understood why and never will.
Some like sugar in coffee, others don't, trading is no different.
You have to find a path that suits you.
The only real requirement is profitability, the approach is a means to an end nothing more.

What I did have was the ability to be open to new information.

What I still find sad is the people who will not hear, do not want to learn, shut themselves off from any opportunity through stubborn pride and sloth. I am resigned to this being part of the human condition

The markets provide an endless flow of opportunity. If people would commit to seeking the truth about them selves first and the markets second, and cast aside any sloth and destructive pride based motives, comparisons with others, and just try and do the best they can, they'd at least have a chance.
Completely agree, good point well made.
The bold highlight in particular is the key most people overlook.
That is pretty much what I was driving at earlier.
An approach can only be chosen and honed once you understand your own
strengths and weaknesses.

That is why the correct approach is one that suits the individual.
In terms of efficiency, arb and scalping are arguably the best.
So why does anyone swing trade, position trade, trade directionally,
pay the spread instead of earning it etc.
Simple - it comes down to the belief and confidence the individual has in their
understanding of their chosen approach, and more importantly its personal
suitability.

The issue of being open to new information - generally people are only going to
be open to new information that suits their way of thinking.
Someone with a personality suited to scalping is unlikely to be as open to new
information about fundamental position trading for instance.
That does not mean fundamental position trading has no value or merit or is
not profitable.

I'm pleased you're carrying on the good fight here - it is appreciated more than you know. There will be other people who grab the opportunity and run with it when given a nudge or two. Perhaps members should take more note of your posts and address the questions you are asking rather than regurgitating "common knowledge" about IBs, bots, HFT, etc. Which leads to another personal quality: insecurity, needing to know or pretend to know to give some comfort, as it is unacceptable to the self to admit ignorance. We all had to start somewhere - and being honest about where you are and what you do not (yet) know is a good place to start.
Perhaps members should disregard everything on the internet and learn to
think for themselves.

Despite regurgitating common knowledge about IB's and HFT and so on,
I freely admit I have no knowledge whatsoever about lots of things
including pin bars for instance.
 
Trouble is there is no correct approach.
No one will ever agree on that because it quite simply does not exist.
There may well be a correct approach based on personality traits, circumstance
and goals.
Everyone who has an opinion on the correct approach will be different.
So it follows the approach will naturally differ.

Some even feel the need to denigrate another approach merely because it is
personally unsuitable for them and / or they failed at it.


I've never understood why and never will.
Some like sugar in coffee, others don't, trading is no different.
You have to find a path that suits you.
The only real requirement is profitability, the approach is a means to an end nothing more.

spot on sir. if square peg wont fit in round hole don't force it.
 
Little bit confused now by some posts. I would have thought the majority consider it to be a skill, so I don't see where this idea that a small % think it is a skill comes from.

Could you clairfy please Wallstreet?

Hi Shakone,

It was more directed at DTs comment, even though he probably said it as a passing comment rather than his opinion, but I maybe mistaken.

It does make me laugh that some here think that this subject (and the areas it is diverting into) is a LULZ. If it was not so serious it would be funny.

The fact that so much on here gets treated in a LULZ fashion shows that very few really understand what this is about, and backs up the POV that only a few believe that trading is a true skill, hence the need to divert attention elsewhere rather than getting down to the nitty gritty.

Needs to be this way though;)
 
It does make me laugh that some here think that this subject (and the areas it is diverting into) is a LULZ. If it was not so serious it would be funny.

nothing wrong with the subject matter but when the anti-indicator mob popped up all chest beating it had to be noted in the members interest especially when there is money to be made from their wares. as you were.
 
The fact that so much on here gets treated in a LULZ fashion shows that very few really understand what this is about,

I agree with cablemonster, nothing wrong with the subject, but if you can't see the lulz in this thread you might want rest your eyes from trading for a bit and re-read this thread :)

Peter
 
I agree with cablemonster, nothing wrong with the subject, but if you can't see the lulz in this thread you might want rest your eyes from trading for a bit and re-read this thread :)

Peter

Maybe you are right, have been trading a bit today:cheesy:

I do have a sense of humour, but sometimes it seems that quality thought provoking questions (such as the one regarding use of time) seem to get avoided.

I dont know if this is because it is simply too deep for some (not to be patronising, but based on skill levels at present, but we must start from somewhere, and begin to learn from the now) or others genuinely are not interested, and would rather let the indicators do the talking (@cablemonster - not that im an hater of these).

Either way, peace(y)
 
I came across this post which is an excellent response to a great post from Shakone....



It got me thinking about the nature of discretionary trading and the difficulty in following the maxim, trade what you see, not what you think and how automation takes care of that non-trivial problem.

I can also see from a institutional point of view that automation is the most viable way of scaling a trading operation. The benefits are obvious.

However, after reading 'The Hour between the Dog and Wolf' which is written by a (now) neuroscientist who was a bond trader, covering the neurological and physiological mechanisms that come into play whilst trading, I cannot help but feel that humans, when at their peak, will always outperform machinery. This is largely down to the massively parallel processing capabilities of the brain which still cannot be replicated by machine.

So I believe that human based, discretionary trading will always outperform an algorithm and that system/algo based trading is useful when trying to scale an operation and in itself is a compromise between scaling and individual, human excellence.

Anyway, am curious about other's opinions on this.

A lot of delusion about automation by men who fail at trading , if they can't trade themselves , how can they write a program that will trade for them?.There is no Microsoft of trading software out there , if it was possible it would be licensed to millions , one can see the evidence of thousands of eas that failed.

Use your loaf.

I also admire the clowns who talk bolloxes on forums.I read them for Lulz of the ordinary blokes that appear to be genuises.
 
Most traders have learnt/read a load of boolox from failed traders ,from people who put failed methodologies and sheit into the minds of traders.The crap from failed masters is wired into the subconscious of the trader , it comes into play in the heat of the moment , when nothing works.

So have can you trade what you see , and none other than what you learnt from failures?In the hour between the dog and wolf , the sheit brains take over.
 
Most traders have learnt/read a load of boolox from failed traders ,from people who put failed methodologies and sheit into the minds of traders.The crap from failed masters is wired into the subconscious of the trader , it comes into play in the heat of the moment , when nothing works.

So have can you trade what you see , and none other than what you learnt from failures?In the hour between the dog and wolf , the sheit brains take over.

good chat.
 

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nothing wrong with the subject matter but when the anti-indicator mob popped up all chest beating it had to be noted in the members interest especially when there is money to be made from their wares. as you were.

It is accepted practice in debate to respond to the messages and not focus on the messengers.

Just a thought.
 
It is accepted practice in debate to respond to the messages and not focus on the messengers.

Just a thought.

It is accepted practice in selling to sell the product and pretend to contribute to the debate.

Just a thought.
 
It is accepted practice in selling to sell the product and pretend to contribute to the debate.

Just a thought.

Now you realize why all these authors claim to be professional traders , if they admitted being just authors cum failed traders and now gurus , would anybody buy their books?They have to pretend to be pros.
 
Now you realize why all these authors claim to be professional traders , if they admitted being just authors cum failed traders and now gurus , would anybody buy their books?They have to pretend to be pros.

The problem is that Cablemonster is actually backing up the techniques all these authors/gurus cum failed traders espouse.

I'm saying it's mostly nonsense & that trading is a skill.

All this 'cause I 'dissed' candlesticks. Perhaps I need to stop using that Steve Nison book as a doorstop. :LOL:
 
I wonder what techniques 'lurkerlurker' employs.

I'm gonna guess that it's nothing to do with TA/charts OR reading the DOM/Time+sales etc.
 
If people thought it was a skill why would they:

- try to program it before they could do it
- use combinations of indicators to tell them when to trade
- buy EAs
- subscribe to alert services
- read candlesticks :whistling
- look at fractals
- use digital signal processing techniques and write books about applying them to time price series - and get lauded for it

etc. etc. etc

These things are solutions to what is perceived as a problem/puzzle. You know... find a 'pattern', find the probability of the pattern working, see if the the profit from it working outweighs the losses from it not working given the win rate, sit back relax and hire a monkey to repeat it for you.

This is not skill development, it is looking for pots of gold at the end of rainbows.

For me your list of bullet points of 'why would they', just contains a lot of things that are completely unrelated to the point.

I think that might be because you believe a skill is something that can ONLY get better by specifically doing it. But I don't believe that is the case typically. Analysing can also help. So that includes thinking about it, reading about it, talking to people, studying people who can do the skill well, testing ideas, practicing/simulating etc.

As an example, your first point about trying to program it before they can do it. I don't believe people do. That's not been my experience, and I don't see that here either. I see people testing strategies and ideas. Some look for others to tell them what to do (i.e. pre-programmed by someone else), but not many actually start manually coding up an automated strategy themselves. I think you'll find most people come to trading and jump in before they're ready, think for a while it is easy and then get a shock.

So people generally don't try to automate a strategy they don't have in the beginning. They analyse and they test and they trade. These are all things that can help to improve the skill of trading. So what is your point?

You also seem to think a skill can't be logical or automated. Playing chess is a skill. Doing multiplication is a skill. Driving is a skill. Flying a plane is. How many of these can be automated? It doesn't make them less of a skill.

Everyone uses indicators of some sort. It might be volume, it might be the delta, it might be the tape, the chart, the time of day, the news announcement, the fact that you are not feeling well etc. These are all possible indicators. How many can say they use none?

All of the points you've made have nothing to do with whether something is a skill or not.
 
Maybe you are right, have been trading a bit today:cheesy:

I do have a sense of humour, but sometimes it seems that quality thought provoking questions (such as the one regarding use of time) seem to get avoided.

I dont know if this is because it is simply too deep for some (not to be patronising, but based on skill levels at present, but we must start from somewhere, and begin to learn from the now) or others genuinely are not interested, and would rather let the indicators do the talking (@cablemonster - not that im an hater of these).

Either way, peace(y)

Well the time question is a good one, but for me at least, as it stands I couldn't give an answer. Reason being, the fact that it has moved faster than usual, does not in itself mean I need to be concerned or adjust anything. It may be accelerating right into the resistance level that I had drawn a week earlier, and where my target is, and that does not mean the level is less likely to hold or that I shouldn't have my target there. Of course I will look to be aware in case there are other reasons causing this faster than usual movement.

This fast moving price has some danger attached. It's very easy to see something moving quickly and feel the urge to jump on, or to think price is strong. But we should be aware of climaxes.

I do use time in other ways that aren't mentioned in the example you gave. If it is going nowhere over a period of time, I will start exiting, either in full, or at least move my stop up. Because the longer a trade goes on without moving in the profitable direction, the less I feel I should be in it. I also think time of day is very important (and time of year to some extent).
 
For me your list of bullet points of 'why would they', just contains a lot of things that are completely unrelated to the point.

I think that might be because you believe a skill is something that can ONLY get better by specifically doing it. But I don't believe that is the case typically. Analysing can also help. So that includes thinking about it, reading about it, talking to people, studying people who can do the skill well, testing ideas, practicing/simulating etc.

As an example, your first point about trying to program it before they can do it. I don't believe people do. That's not been my experience, and I don't see that here either. I see people testing strategies and ideas. Some look for others to tell them what to do (i.e. pre-programmed by someone else), but not many actually start manually coding up an automated strategy themselves. I think you'll find most people come to trading and jump in before they're ready, think for a while it is easy and then get a shock.

So people generally don't try to automate a strategy they don't have in the beginning. They analyse and they test and they trade. These are all things that can help to improve the skill of trading. So what is your point?

You also seem to think a skill can't be logical or automated. Playing chess is a skill. Doing multiplication is a skill. Driving is a skill. Flying a plane is. How many of these can be automated? It doesn't make them less of a skill.

Everyone uses indicators of some sort. It might be volume, it might be the delta, it might be the tape, the chart, the time of day, the news announcement, the fact that you are not feeling well etc. These are all possible indicators. How many can say they use none?

All of the points you've made have nothing to do with whether something is a skill or not.

Your comparisons are not like for like ,only some things can be automated and it has it's limits.I have wasted 6,000 hours on it , you do not understand why it will not work consistently.
 
Your comparisons are not like for like ,only some things can be automated and it has it's limits.I have wasted 6,000 hours on it , you do not understand why it will not work consistently.

Here is what I am saying. Some skills can be automated. Therefore, if DT wants to suggest that people backtesting, looking for automation or using indicators do not believe it is a skill because they are doing these things, then DT would need to prove why this particular skill (trading) cannot be automated. This is an interesting debate, but he will be unable to prove it.

Secondly, every skill that I can currently think of, can be improved by ways other than just doing the skill. Practice, analysis, study etc. Doing these, studying charts etc., does not mean you think it is not a skill, quite the opposite.
 
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