Tomorrow's Trading Forecast - EUR/USD

[gus]

Trading for 13.07.05

EUR.USD - Confirmed buy signal (this follows the early warning buy signal on 28.06 (post #4 & refered to again in post #12)

GBP.USD - Confirmed buy signal - with two gonzo days to the upside we could have a pullback prior to more buying pressure.

USD.JPY - Confirmed sell signal - same deal, be aware we may head up prior to more downside pressure. see chart for targets


My posts are only meant to be instructional and entertaining. You are welcome to ask questions.

 

[gus]

Trading for 14.07.05

Serious problem with y'days confirmed signals. Although they may work out the following is now in effect:

EUR.USD The 14th's high must be 2235 or higher to avoid a sell signal.

GBP.USD The 14th high must be 7737 or higher to avoid a sell signal.

USD.JPY The 14th's low must be 110.78 or lower to avoid a buy signal.

I expected some of today's action but the market went way beyond what I expected, so I am flat and will take my clue's from what the market wants - she's the boss!


My posts are only meant to be instructional and entertaining. You are welcome to ask questions.

 

[ottos]

Trading for 14.07.05

Serious problem with y'days confirmed signals. Although they may work out the following is now in effect:

EUR.USD The 14th's high must be 2235 or higher to avoid a sell signal.

GBP.USD The 14th high must be 7737 or higher to avoid a sell signal.

USD.JPY The 14th's low must be 110.78 or lower to avoid a buy signal.

I expected some of today's action but the market went way beyond what I expected, so I am flat and will take my clue's from what the market wants - she's the boss!


My posts are only meant to be instructional and entertaining. You are welcome to ask questions.

Gus,
What are the red and white dotted lines on your charts ? What time frame do you preffer ?
Thanks

 

[gus]

Gus,
What are the red and white dotted lines on your charts ? What time frame do you preffer ?
Thanks

I am assuming you are refering to the chart in post 21 and in that chart I see both solid red and dotted red trend lines and light blue solid & dotted lines. These are trendlines of a little different nature - the secret to trendline analysis is choosing the correct points from which to plot the lines. Plotted from significant highs/lows by also using selected chart patterns along with an offset. I believe they keep me in for bigger moves with almost as much protection.

[font=&quot]Time frames:Weekly/Daily/144/60/30/15/5 all get used.
Hope that answeres your quesiton Ottos
[/font]

 

[gus]

Trading for 18.07.05

EUR.USD - No strong opinion, but since we closed near the low on Friday my guess for the open/early action would be up.

EUR.JPY - No system signal but from the attached chart it looks like a sell.

GBP.USD - Early system buy signal .

USD.JPY - Still on the confirmed system sell signal (see post 21) and see attached chart of the weekly.




My posts are only meant to be instructional and entertaining. You are welcome to ask questions.

 

[gus]

Trading for 19.07.05

No changes - see last post #25 which is still valid.


My posts are only meant to be instructional and entertaining. You are welcome to ask questions.

 

[gus]

Trading for 20.07.05 - not much opinion, no new signals.

EUR.USD - no new system signals - the sell signal on the 14th (post #22) was a big winner.

GBP.USD - no new system signals - the sell signal on the 14th (post #22) was a big winner.

USD.JPY - no new system signals - the buy signal on the 14th (post #22) was a big winner.


My posts are only meant to be instructional and entertaining. You are welcome to ask questions.

 

[gus]

Trading for 21.07.05

EUR.USD - no system signals

EUR.JPY - This will confuse you we have a confirmed buy signal and an early warning sell signal. My opinion would be to think it's overbought.

GBP.USD - no system signal but my guess is we go up. See chart - as a money manager I wouldn't throw much into long positions until a daily close above the light blue trend lines.

USD.JPY - system gave another buy signal this is the second one with the first one being on the 14th - post 22.


My posts are only meant to be instructional and entertaining. You are welcome to ask questions.

 

[gus]

Trading for 22.07.05

EUR.USD - This pair showed some excitment but sure didn't finish the dance!
System came close but no buy signal yet.

EUR.JPY - Y'day's early sell signal was on target. Edit of this because I failed to report the system gave an early warning buy signal for 22.07

GBP.USD - Nice analysis y'day. Pat myself on the back,lol
System now has a confirmed buy signal, but we may have a pullback before the advance contimues. I look for money managers to take this higher the next several weeks.

USD.JPY - Not good analysis y'day. System now gives an early warning buy signal and I expect the dollar to recover a bit.

I will be back to look more closely at the charts after pizza.
My posts are only meant to be instructional and entertaining. You are welcome to ask questions.

 

[gus]

Trading for 25.07.05

We ended the week of big moves thanks to China with several system signals for Monday.

EUR.USD - Early warning buy signal. A close near the low (or high) will often give an early signal.

EUR.JPY - We now have a confirmed sell signal after todays early warning buy signal worked out fine and then faded into the close. And on the chart we display one method of giving a target.

GBP.USD - Y'days confirmed buy signal is still in play.

USD.JPY - We now have a confirmed sell signal.








My posts are only meant to be instructional and entertaining. You are welcome to ask questions.

 

[gus]

Storm knocked out power & phone - no trading for 26.07 - maybe not a bad thing considering how poorly my last post turned out.

 

[Texas_Hedge]

Storm knocked out power & phone - no trading for 26.07 - maybe not a bad thing considering how poorly my last post turned out.

As long as your OK, GUS


Regards

Peter

 

[gus]

Thanks Peter - we are on a 36 acre farm at the end of a dead end road in the country. Sometimes it takes them awhile to repair the power line, but thankfully it was back on when we returned from town - not good when the AC's off when it's this hot.


Posting a couple charts.

1. EUR.USD 15 minute chart showing both Pivot lines and channel lines. I do a lot of trading just off this chart, because it's so darn easy.

2. EUR.JPY 60 minute chart - only posting this because it's so colorful
The color moving average line is pretty but to tell the truth it doesn't help me trade.

 

[gus]

I am a proponent of what works. And when I fell across a power pivot signal done by the owner of Fed Signal Online http://tradestation2000.com/
and then reworked by eKam at the Tradestation forum.

I emailed a few times with him. We discussed Tom DeMarks sequential & Alex Smith said he'd spent a year and a half programing Tom's indicators, then tested all of Tom's methods and "none of his methods work" which shocked me. 1. That someone would spend that much time on it and 2. That Alex didn't find it worked.

I agree it doesn't always work but then Alex your power pivot doesn't work every time either!
Actually I explored some of his web site and would have bought something if he'd had a trial - but I am not one to give out credit card data just for a trial. Sample of the power pivot can be seen on the EUR.JPY chart just above. From the left it's a green dot under the blue bar (wonderbar) buy signal; the next one is a brown dot above the yellow bar (walter bressert siganl) and a green dot under the green bar (bressert again)

Ok rant finished. Well not completely,lol...........if sequential doesn't work then what's that 13 on the chart?

 

[gus]

Advanced notice - Trading for 27.07

EUR.JPY - My hand charting system say's today's (26.07) trading it is necessary for a low of 3414 or lower to avoid a buy signal. And there's no way that's going to happen at this late hour so I believe this pair is on a buy!

The chart here also shows two indicators that are not working. 1. The yellow painted bar is a Walter Bressart sell signal & Alex Smith's power pivot is the dot above the current bar.

 

[a_gnome]

Hi Gus,
I've just caught the tail of this thread. I'm interested to hear that you use the Tom Demark sequential stuff. I saw an article on it a while back and coded it all up and then looked at a chart and I must admit that I couldn't get it to make any sense. Sometime it was right but many times it wasn't. I must admit that I didn't spend much time on it - perhaps there was something that I was missing. Anyway, I'd be interested to hear your comments on the method as TD seems to have a big following.

Adam

 

[gus]

Someone asked if 1.70 would break on cable.

Look at the monthly chart - very easy to see that it could break. I have no idea if it will but the bi-sec's already broken. Oh and see that pretty little white dot down on the low in 2001?

Hey Alex Smith - that's an anlog signal by Tom DeMark! Tell me again how it doesn't work.
Sheesh I have to get off this and let it go...........things to do, la8er all.

 

[gus]

Hi Gus,
I've just caught the tail of this thread. I'm interested to hear that you use the Tom Demark sequential stuff. I saw an article on it a while back and coded it all up and then looked at a chart and I must admit that I couldn't get it to make any sense. Sometime it was right but many times it wasn't. I must admit that I didn't spend much time on it - perhaps there was something that I was missing. Anyway, I'd be interested to hear your comments on the method as TD seems to have a big following.

Adam

Well Adam - Alex may have a job for you...........only kidding.
I fell into DeMark and I'm the first to admit it. I downloaded a sample of TradeStation indicators from some bootleger who had made a mistake and put up more than he'd knew. Included was DeMark and when I put it onto a chart - bingo I bought his first book and later his second.

I have to admit when it doesn't work I am disappointed, as I'm sure DeMark is also. Heck i'm disappointed when any indicator doesn't work.

Congratulations on being a coder. That's good work, one of my buddies down in florida wrote a ton of code for all the ATM machines. He never did tell me the secret code to punch into a machine that would unload all the money,lol

 

[gus]

Tradestation switched last weekend from RJOFX to Gain Capitol for forex. My trading account is with RJOFX and I like everything about it - well almost everything. So here was my call to TS this evening.
me: hello i understand forex is a 24 hour a day market - could you tell me why there have been no quotes on my chart for the last hour or two? TS: the data from our new supplier is down. me: it's not down at RJOFX.
TS: I'm sorry. - me: ya you should be sorry you should have stayed with someone who knew what they were doing.............dumb asses. Right now I can't say a good word about TS ...........I'm pissed

 

[gus]

Trading for 27.07

EUR.JPY - as pointed out in post 35 above this pair is on a buy.

GBP.USD - as I'm not trusting TradeStation data much this evening I'm not sure about this but it looks like 27.07 high must be 7452 or higher to avoid a sell signal.

The chart below is euro daily and i would point out to anyone learning trading methods that the bisection line is important in many time frames. Here on the daily you see how it acted as support. It is the center line of a pitchfork here, but what you are really wanting to do is to bisect in this manner.