Today market outlook

[Zerologic]

The EUR/JPY pair corrected slightly near the lower band.

Yesterday, the EURJPY currency pair drew a bullish small-body candle with a short shadow wick on the top candle. The price formed a high of 157,252, a low of 156,002, and a close of 156,690. EURJPY has fallen more since February 13 after failing to cross the middle band line. Bollinger bands drawing a descending channel reflect the market more to the downside.

The Japanese yen weakened slightly due to a small correction in the 10-year JGB yield. The asset strengthened as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened overall amid a small correction in the 10-year Japanese bond yield. Investors rushed to buy Japanese bonds after Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said he could increase the government's bond purchase program if long-term interest rates rise sharply. The 10-year JGB yield fell to nearly 1.41% from 1.45%, the highest level seen in nearly 15 years.

The hope that the BoJ will raise interest rates may be able to maintain the Yen. This hope is increasingly convincing because the Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January were higher than expected.

Today investors will focus on important data releases such as European GDP data which is predicted to be the same as the previous revision of -0.2%.

 

[Zerologic]

The Swiss franc strengthened as the yield on 10-year Swiss government bonds rose

Yesterday the price of the USD/CHF currency pair drew a bearish long-body candle crossing the middle band from the upper side indicating a strong decline. Price formed a high of 0.89778 low of 0.89122 closing at 0.89288 on the FXOpen platform.

The Swiss Franc is gaining positive traction due to the weakening US dollar following disappointing US economic data such as last week's Jobless Claims and the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) found support as the yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond rose.

Traders may still be anticipating the Fed's interest rate prospects, which are predicted to maintain interest rates for a longer time amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's economic policy. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possible target rate at the March 19 Fed meeting is forecast to hold interest rates at a 96.5% probability and only a 4.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut.

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY) is currently at 106,283 at the time of writing, the DXY value is weakening more referring to the 50 EMA which is drawing a descending channel above the price. On the other hand, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.92% from the previous day's 1.98%.

In Switzerland inflation has fallen to 0.4%, the lowest level in almost four years raising expectations of easing in March, earlier in December the SNB had cut interest rates by 50 basis points and signaled the possibility of additional cuts.

Today investors will also focus on Trump's speech which will hold a press conference about his latest executive order at the White House.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CAD started trading on a positive note rising for the fourth consecutive day

The price of the USDCAD currency pair yesterday drew a bullish candle crossing the middle band line from the downside. Price has formed a high of 1.43646, a low of 1.42938, a close of 1.43442. The pair recorded a new high of 1.43646 since mid-February.

The Canadian dollar underperformed as investors expected the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further reduce interest rates. The BoC has reduced its key lending rate to nearly 3% from a peak of 5% seen in May 2024. Canadian inflation continues to remain below the BoC's target of 2% due to a sluggish economic slowdown.

Meanwhile the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD currency against six major currencies, rose from a low of 106,159 to a high of 106,654 driven by the $4.5 trillion tax cut bill proposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump, which was approved by the House of Representatives which is predicted to boost economic growth and inflation. The Fed is expected to maintain its tight monetary policy stance for a longer period of time due to inflation concerns amid economic growth due to the impact of Trump's economic policies. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool the likelihood of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged is 95.5% at its meeting on March 19.

Today investors will focus on the release of US GDP and Unemployment Claims news which might provide a boost to the USDCAD currency pair. US Prelim GDP is expected to be the same as the previous revision of 2.3%, while unemploymeNt claims are forecast to rise by 222k from the previous revision of 219k. Additional data on US durable goods orders may provide insight into the US economy which is forecast to increase by 2.0% from the previous -2.2%.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CNH rose to a high of 7.3023 amid the strengthening of the US dollar

The USDCNH currency pair yesterday drew a bullish long body candle indicating a strong uptrend and has crossed the middle band from the downside. USDCNH price formed a high 7.3023 low 7.2583 closing 7.2996.

US prelim GDP yesterday showed 2.3%, the same as the previous period according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, unemployment claims increased by 242k, higher than the expected 222k and also higher than the previous revision of 220k. The same GDP data gives a neutral economic signal while unemployment claims are increasing at uncertain growth.

On the other hand, President Donald Trump confirmed that his proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4. Analysts have feared a decline in the US economy as Trump's controversial policies add to concerns such as layoffs of federal workers by the Department of Government Efficiency, which have caused consumers and businesses to increasingly question the economic outlook.

The USDCNH currency pair on the weekly time frame for five weeks has moved more in the range of low 7.2342 and high 7.3670, this currency pair tends to be stable at the trading range level even though it fluctuates due to various economic news that occurs in both China and the US.

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release important inflation data that the Fed favors in making its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) interest rate policy which is expected to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of 0.2%. High inflation will be a serious consideration for the Fed to maintain high interest rates for longer.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold fell more in trading last week

The price of gold throughout early 2025 has experienced a significant increase since early January and has recorded new all-time highs several times. The last gold ATH was at 2956, which was formed on February 24. Furthermore, gold failed to maintain its gains, and last week, there were more declines. Last weekend,d gold drew a bearish candle with a rather long wick at the bottom of the candle. Gold price formed a high of 2885, a low of 2832, and a closing of 2856.

US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data was released on Friday. There were no significant surprises, as monthly PCE was forecast to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%, and general PCE at 0.3%, unchanged compared to December figures. The Dollar Index (DXY) has been strengthening since Wednesday and has risen to a high of 107.661 from a low of 106.159. The strengthening of the USD was one of the reasons for the weakening of gold prices last week.

In other hot news, United States President Donald Trump reiterated that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will begin on March 4, while China will experience an additional 10%, increasing the total tariffs to 20% on imports into the US. He also emphasized peace between Russia and Ukraine, even though there is no clarity on negotiations between Zelenskyy and Putin.

According to a World Gold Council report, global demand for gold, which reached a record high of almost 5,000 tons last year, will continue in early 2025. However, jewelry purchases will be weak as prices reach record highs. According to the WGC, India overtook China as the largest importer of gold last year due to a reduction in import taxes on the commodity. On the other hand, China experienced a decline due to the weakening of its economy from year to year.

According to analysts, geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, which may continue this year, can still influence gold's long-term prospects. Despite this, gold is still considered a safe-haven asset in times of global economic uncertainty.

There are no high-impact news releases on today's economic calendar, but investors will probably pay attention to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which is expected to remain unchanged at 50.6.

 

[Zerologic]

AUDUSD pair consolidates after decline

Yesterday the AUDUSD currency pair drew a bullish small body candle with an on top candle wick. Price formed a high of 0.62542, a low of 0.62037, a closing of 0.62244. Price is near the lower band line.

The AUDUSD pair started its decline since February 21 amid strengthening USD. Dollar index (DXY) is now 106,415, dropping from high 107,564.

Financial markets were shocked again by President Donald Trump announcing his intention to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, up from the currently planned 10%. He also said there was no room left for a deal on duties affecting Mexico and Canada. Trump's policies have a broad impact on financial markets due to uncertainty that could lead to trade wars and inflation.

According to the Fedwatch tool CME group, the possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates high is 91% and the possibility of reducing interest rates is only 9% at the next March 19 meeting.

Meanwhile the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% in February and signaled a measured approach going forward. Investors await RBA minutes due on Tuesday for clues on further easing measures as inflation remains a priority.

Today Australia has released Retail Sales of 0.3% as expected and higher than previously at -0.1%.

In the future, investors will also focus on US economic data related to ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday and NFP on Friday.

 

[Zerologic]

GBP/USD maintains gains when USD weakens

The GBPUSD extended its previous gains and has reached a new high of 1.27997. The price draws a long bullish candle reaching the upper band line. Price formed a high of 1.27997, a low of 1.26787, and a close of 1.27941 near MA 200.

The dollar index (DXY) is currently extending losses at 105.526, crossing the 20, 50, and 100 MA from the upside. The US dollar weakened amid hot news about Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which were implemented this month. Apart from that, Trump also changed the additional tariffs on Chinese products to 20% from previously only 10%. It seems that Trump's policy has changed the mood of investors and is one of the reasons for the weakening of the USD.

Meanwhile, according to data from the U.S. On March 4, the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates on March 4 experienced an increase for the 7-year tenor to 4.11%, while the 10-year tenor was 4.22%.

In the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) shop price index in February fell 0.7% YoY overnight, but on the other hand, prices rose 0.4% MoM due to rising food prices. Meanwhile, in January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3%.

Today, the UK parliament will hear Monetary Policy Report Hearings by BOE speakers BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC members.

Meanwhile, in the US, investors will wait for the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to fall to 141k from the previous 183k. This data is to measure the estimated number of workers in the previous month, excluding the agricultural and government industries. ADP analyzed payroll data from more than 25 million workers to obtain job growth estimates.

 

[Zerologic]

NZD/USD surges amid poor US dollar performance

The NZDUSD currency pair increased for three consecutive days. Yesterday, the price formed a long bullish candle crossing the middle band line from the downside. Price formed a high of 0.57318, a low of 0.56374, and a closing of 0.57245. The USD/CAD started to rise on March 3 after the price was at the lower band. This increase was in line with the poor performance of the US dollar.

The dollar index (DXY) has experienced three consecutive days of decline from a high of 107.654 to a low of 104.259. The weakening performance of the US dollar may be caused by Trump's tariff policy, which brings concerns about trade wars and economic uncertainty. After reiterating the proposed tariff for Canada and Mexico of 25%, and also the tariff on China, which was increased to 20%.

China has announced retaliatory tariffs against the US. Meanwhile, New Zealand could be impacted by this trade war given its significant dependence on exports to China.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data released yesterday also showed that the actual data was much lower than expectations. ADP Employment data was only 77k, far below the forecast of 141k and the previous revision of 186k. This seems to be another reason for the US dollar's poor performance. However, the ISM Services PMI data was higher than forecast at 53.5, above the forecast of 52.5 and the previous revision of 52.8. Although mixed economic data still does not help the value of the dollar index to rise.

Today, RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks delivered the opening speech at a research conference hosted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. Investors will be looking for subtle hints of possible hawkishness or dovishness that could influence the currency.

Apart from that, we will also pay attention to US Unemployment Claims data, which is expected to fall by 234k from the previous revision of 242k.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver Price Rises, Cautious Seeing High Price

Silver is one of the precious metals that is an alternative hedge besides gold. Yesterday, the Silver price with the symbol XAGUSD drew a bearish candle with a long wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 32,761 low of 32,253 closing at 32,626. The Silver price has tended to rise since March which had dropped to a low of 30,814.

The US Dollar's downward trend strengthened on Wednesday, driven by concerns about the US economy as President Donald Trump's tariff policy sparked concerns about economic uncertainty. The dollar index (DXY) dropped to 103,761 yesterday, extending its previous three-day decline, although now the DXY value is slightly up at 104,180 at the time of writing.

The United States ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data released on Wednesday showed a figure of 77k smaller than the forecast of 141k from the previous revision of 186k. Traders sometimes use this information to project the possibility of NFP, which will be released today. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims released on Thursday showed a figure of 221k, smaller than the forecast of 234k from the previous revision of 242k. Although the unemployment claims data was lower than expected, it did not help much to strengthen the dollar index.

Silver demand in Shanghai, according to SMM, is bullish influenced by a discount factor on silver contract which partly for hedging position, while downstream buyers are cautious in buying at high level and remain on the sidelines.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected interest rate cut, with President Christine Lagarde stressing the need for higher caution in uncertain economic conditions.

Today, investors will focus on US data to be released, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings to get a picture of the recent US economy.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold volatility decreased, marked by a shrinking Bollinger band.

Gold prices last week moved steadily in the range of the $2900 price level. Buyers were reluctant to increase volume, and sellers were still holding their positions. Gold price volatility has slightly decreased with a range of low at 2894 to high 2930, the shrinking Bollinger band indicates lower volatility in gold. Gold prices at the close of Friday formed a high of 2930 and a low of 2896, closing at 2908 near the middle band line.

Although gold has entered a consolidation phase, inflation data from the US and political news can continue to affect gold prices in the short term. US President Donald Trump canceled the signing of a mineral deal with Ukraine, interpreting two possibilities to open the way for a Russian ceasefire; investors will continue to monitor global geopolitical changes.

In the US, there are increasing concerns about the US economy, which are weighing on the USD. The dollar index (DXY,) which tracks the USD against six major currencies, shows a weakening trend in the USD; DXY is now at 103.759, which started its decline since January 2025 from a high of 110.176. Trump's tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico of 25% and an additional import tariff on China of 10% are the reasons for the increasing selling of the USD. Although the impact is more visible on other major currencies than gold.

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in February fell to 50.3 from 50.9 in January, reflecting a loss of growth momentum in manufacturing business activity. Meanwhile, the Employment Index fell to 47.6 from 50.3, indicating a contraction in the sector's payrolls. Meanwhile, the NFP data released on Friday showed 151k smaller than the forecast of 159k but still higher than the previous 125k.

Meanwhile, the Fed, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool at its meeting on March 19, predicted the Fed would maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% by 97%, and the possibility of a cut to 4.00%-4.25% was only 3.0%.

Looking at today's economic calendar schedule, there is no high-impact news to be released, but traders will still see market changes in real time.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/JPY falls further ahead of Japan's GDP and US jobs data.

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen currency pair remains in bearish sentiment. Yesterday, the price drew a bearish candle with a lower low extending the previous decline. The price formed a high of 147.954, a low of 146.632, and closed at 147.256.

The Japanese Yen still maintains its positive bias against the US dollar amidst market bets that the BoJ will raise interest rates. This was supported in data that showed that real cash income fell 1.8% due to persistently low inflation. Adding to this, growing confidence that the strong wage increases seen last year will continue this year supports the argument for further BoJ policy tightening.

Meanwhile, in the US, fears may persist over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policies and the global trade war resulting from Trump's policies, further strengthening the JPY's status as a relatively safe-haven currency. As is known, Trump's proposal for imports from Canada and Mexico to be subject to a 25% tariff while China gets an additional 10% tariff from the previous 10% to 20% can affect the economic policies of the affected countries. Canada has reportedly removed US products from their store shelves as an act of retaliation for the policy.

The dollar index (DXY), although slightly up but still under pressure. DXY is now at 103.903, having previously dropped to a low of 103.458 on Friday. RSI points to level 27 on the daily timeframe, indicating oversold value.

Today, the market will wait for the Japan GDP data report year after year and per quarter, which is estimated to be the same as the previous revision, and the US JOLTS Job Openings employment data report, which is estimated to increase to 7.65M from the previous 7.60M, according to Forexfactory data.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CAD draws indecision candle ahead of overnight rate

The USD/CAD currency pair yesterday drew a Doji candle with long shadows on the top and bottom lines near the upper band line on the daily timeframe. The price formed a high of 1.45212, a low of 143792 open 1.44341, and closed at 1.44326. This temporarily halted the previous two-day bullish trend.

The US jobs data released yesterday, JOLTS Job Openings by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.74M higher than forecast 7.65M from the previously revised 7.51M. Hires held steady at 5.4M, and total layoffs were little changed at 5.3M. Although job openings were slightly changed but decreased by 728K over the year.

The increase in these data figures somewhat supported the strengthening of the USD. The trade war initiated by United States President Donald Trump against Canada is the reason for the turbulence in the USD currency, including the USDCAD pair lately. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. He also imposed additional duties on goods from China. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has threatened to take action in response to Trump's policies. Trudeau said retaliatory tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. imports would go into effect immediately, with more to follow.

The trade war continues. Trump announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada to 50 percent in response to the Ontario government imposing a 25 percent tariff on electricity exported to the US.

Today, investors will focus on the Bank of Canada, which is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision, which is expected to be cut by 25 basis points from 3.0% to 2.75%. In addition, investors will also pay attention to the BoC statement,t which may provide subtle clues on Canadian dollar currency policy.

In the US, today will also release CPI data which is an important inflation data used by the Fed to determine their monetary policy. Core CPI is expected to fall 0.3% from the previous 0.4%, monthly CPI is also expected to be 0.3% from the previous 0.5% and annual CPI is expected to be 2.9% from the previous 0.3%.

 

[Zerologic]

EUR/USD hovers amid moderate US inflation

After hitting a high of 1.09473 on Tuesday, the EURUSD pair drifted lower after the release of US inflation data. Yesterday, the EURUSD price formed a high of 1.09307 and a low of 1.08757, closing at 1.08874. The price drew a bearish candle with a higher low of the previous candle near the upper band line.

Yesterday's US inflation data release showed moderate growth. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index slowed sharply to 2.8% year-over-year from an estimated 2.9% from a previously revised 3.0%. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5 percent in January. The index for all goods except food and energy increased 0.2 percent in February, following a 0.4 percent increase in January.

A weaker-than-anticipated rise in US inflation is expected to boost market expectations that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will cut interest rates at its May policy meeting. Meanwhile, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed's target interest rate is projected to be unchanged at its March 19 meeting with a 98.0% probability of leaving the rate at 4.25%-4.50%.

The dollar index (DXY) that tracks the US dollar against six major currencies has shown poor performance in recent weeks due to Trump's policies that are expected to increase inflation, which ultimately reduces household purchasing power. There are even concerns that the US recession will increase due to the impact of Trump's policies.

Today, investors will wait for the release of US PPI data and unemployment claims, which are also the basis for the Fed's considerations in taking their next monetary policy. This month's core PPI is expected to be the same as the previous revision of 0.3%, and the general PPI is 0.3% from the previous 0.4%. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims are expected to increase by 226k from the previous 221k.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver breaks $33; precious metal gains positive traction amid trade war

The price of silver (XAGUSD) yesterday drew a long-bodied bullish candle with small shadows on top and bottom of the candle. Silver price formed a high of 33,959, a low of 32,928, and closed at 33,804. Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, reflecting rising volatility.

Silver started the rhythm with bullish sentiment. since January, its price fluctuations were relatively in line with other precious metals such as Gold, Copper, Aluminum, and Tin. Silver has an inverse relationship with the US dollar index which is not too strong during the same period with the correlation of the real 10-year US Treasury yield.

The trade war initiated by Trump has brought about fears of a trade-related recession triggering a surge in investors to safe-haven assets such as Gold, Silver, and the Japanese Yen. Besides the trade war, the supply chain may also affect the price. According to the USGS (United States Geological Survey), Mexico leads global silver production, accounting for 24.8% of the world's total. China, with a production of around 3,400 metric tons, controls 13.2%, Peru 12%. The three countries collectively play a role in the global Silver supply chain. While Mexico and China are countries that are hit by Trump's tariff,s which could affect supply and add to the potential for price increases.

Meanwhile, the US PPI data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January and 0.5 percent in December 2024. In February, a 0.3 percent increase in prices for final demand goods offset a 0.2 percent decline in the index for final demand services. Meanwhile, the Department of Labor reported that Unemployment Claims fell to 220k from 222k previously, lower than the forecast of 226.

The dollar index (DXY) has been in retreat since the beginning of this year, now at 103.833, slightly up from a low of 103.221 on March 11. The RSI has been pointing to oversold levels at 25 and is currently trying to break out of that level at 30. The FED is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its March 19 meeting.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CNH, will the rise reach 7.3000?

While the dollar index (DXY) is under pressure, the USD/CNH currency pair is moving near the lower band line. At the end of last week, the price drew a bearish candle with shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 7.2542, a low of 7.2307, and a close of 7.2357. During last week's trading, the pair tended to move in a range between the middle and lower band lines.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is now at 103.725 and is still struggling to recover. The dollar index began to come under pressure during President Trump's proposal for import tariffs on some countries, including China. The trade war echoed by Trump has caused market uncertainty, and some analysts are worried that it could trigger a US recession because the impact of the tariff policy is considered to cause inflation.

The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged this month's meeting. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed's target rate probabilities for the March 19th Meeting are estimated at 99.0%, and the cut forecast is only 1%.

Today, China will release some economic data that could be a subtle clue to the country's economic conditions. Industrial Production year-to-year is forecast to fall 5.3% from the previous revision of 6.2%. Retail sales year-to-year are forecast to rise 3.8% from the previous revision of only 3.7%.

On the other hand, US core retail sales are forecast to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of 0.4%. General retail sales are forecast to rise 0.6% from the previous revision of -0.9%.