Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: unemployment in New Zealand remains relatively low
01/08/2017
Current dynamics
Today at 21:45 (GMT) will be published data from the labor market of New Zealand. It is expected that unemployment in New Zealand declined in the second quarter by 0.1% to 4.8%.
At levels below 5% unemployment in the country was in the period from 2003 to 2008. Nevertheless, unemployment of 4.9% is a significant improvement compared to the peak of 6.7% achieved after the financial crisis. The decrease in the unemployment rate and the increase in the labor force share in the total population (70.7% in the second quarter versus 70.6% in the first quarter) indicate a decrease in available resources in the labor market, which may finally lead to an increase in the level of salaries in the country, Stimulating domestic demand and GDP growth. If the data is confirmed, this will have a positive effect on the New Zealand currency.
Also worth paying attention to the publication at 14:00 (GMT) of the price index for dairy products. The milk auction that was held two weeks ago indicated another growth in world prices for dairy products. The price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of + 0.2%. The main export item of the country is dry milk. The next increase in prices will support the New Zealand currency. The New Zealand dollar in the NZD / USD pair also receives support from the declining US currency and positive data coming from China. China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand and a buyer of its primary commodities, including dairy products. Strong macroeconomic indicators from China have a positive effect on the quotations of the New Zealand currency.
Today, investors will also monitor the publication during the period 12:30 - 14:00 (GMT) of the important US inflation figures for June (personal income and personal consumption expenditure), as well as the ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector of the US economy, which is an important An indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole. The result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, below 50 - as negative for the US dollar. Forecast: 56.5 in July (against 57.8 in June). If the indices come out with better indicators than the forecast, the US dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market.

Support and resistance levels
As a result of the three-month rally, the NZD / USD pair reached a new annual maximum and a resistance level of 0.7550 last week (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016). The pair NZD / USD very technically rebounded in mid-May from the support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). So what next?
The NZD / USD pair is in a global downtrend since July 2014. A break of 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend. Nevertheless, the current growth of the NZD / USD pair is largely due to the general weakening of the US dollar.
Back in June, when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, RBNZ Governor Graham Wheeler noted that "monetary policy will remain soft for a significant period". Now investors assess the prospects for the divergence of the directions of the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBNZ. If the Fed still confirms the intention to raise the rate in December, and the US will begin to receive positive macroeconomic data and the internal political crisis subsides, the US dollar will quickly regain its lost positions.
Despite the fact that the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the weekly and monthly charts recommend long positions, on the daily, 4-hour charts, the indicators moved to the side of sellers, signaling an overdue downward correction.
While the NZD / USD pair is above the key support levels of 0.7275 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%), its positive dynamics persists. In case of a breakdown at the level of 0.7240, the NZD / USD pair will accelerate its decline to the support level of 0.7150 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The more distant target of the decline is the support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860). At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017.
Support levels: 0.7455, 0.7335, 0.7275, 0.7240, 0.7150, 0.7100
Resistance levels: 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7450. Stop-Loss 0.7520. Take-Profit 0.7335, 0.7275, 0.7240, 0.7150, 0.7100
Buy Stop 0.7520. Stop-Loss 0.7450. Take-Profit 0.7550, 0.7600

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Inflationary pressure in the Eurozone remains weak
02/08/2017
Current dynamics
According to the data published yesterday, the Eurozone's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.6% (+ 2.1% in annual terms against + 1.9% in the previous quarter). Quarterly growth rates have become the highest since March 2015. This GDP growth indicates that the Eurozone has overcome the consequences of the financial crises of the last decade. The euro reacted rather weakly to the publication of data, and during the yesterday's trading day, the EUR / USD fell.
Today, the dollar continues to recover in the foreign exchange market. However, against the euro, the dollar declined during today's Asian session. According to official data published today, the producer price index (PPI) of the Eurozone in June compared with May fell by 0.1%. The decline in producer prices in the Eurozone was noted following the results of three of the last four months. Compared to June last year, the index rose by 2.5%, but this was the weakest growth in 2017.
In response to the publication, the pair EUR / USD declined, but remains positive. Suddenly, the strong recovery of the Eurozone economy in the first half of the year strengthened expectations of the curtailment of the QE program. In July, ECB President Mario Draghi called the restoration of the region's economy "strong" and promised that in the autumn the central bank's leaders would decide the fate of the bond purchase program, which ends in December. It is expected that the program will be extended for 2018, but its volumes will be reduced.
At the same time, Draghi once again reminded that the level of inflation will be the basis for making a decision to reduce the stimulus program for the economy. It is necessary to be "consistent and patient", so that inflation grows to a target level of just below 2%, according to Draghi. Strengthening the same inflationary pressure in the coming months seems unlikely.
Today we are waiting for the publication (12:15 GMT) of the employment report from ADP, which reflects the change in the number of employees in the US in July. Reducing the result weakens the US dollar. The growth is expected to reach 185 000 (against 158 000 in June), which should support the dollar.
Also today (16:00 and 19:30 GMT) are key representatives of the Fed, members of the FOMC Loretta Meister and John Williams. Probably, they will again pay attention to the low level of inflation and will express their opinion that the Fed should be delayed with another increase in the interest rate in the US.
Nevertheless, the Fed can still raise the rate again in December, despite the low level of inflation. As long as a strong labor market supports moderate wage growth, prospects for further tightening of monetary policy remain. In this regard, data on US employment on Friday may be very important.

Support and resistance levels
Today the pair EUR / USD has reached a new annual maximum near the level of 1.1865. The pair EUR / USD maintains positive momentum above support levels 1.1785 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from 1.3900 level), 1.1610 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
In case of further growth and breakdown of resistance level 1.1865, the pair EUR / USD may go to the long-term target 1.2180 (50% Fibonacci level). In fact, this will mean the cancellation of the global downward trend, which began in May 2014.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts still recommend long positions.
In the alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the support level 1.1610, the decline may accelerate inside the uplink on the daily chart, up to the level of 1.1490 (the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), risks of return to the downtrend will grow significantly.
Support levels: 1.1785, 1.1715, 1.1685, 1.1610, 1.1560, 1.1490, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120, 1.1050
Resistance levels: 1.1865, 1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1790. Stop-Loss 1.1870. Take-Profit 1.1715, 1.1685, 1.1650, 1.1610, 1.1560, 1.1500, 1.14400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1870. Stop-Loss 1.1790. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2180

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: gold is falling in price
03/08/2017
Current dynamics
The focus of traders today is the meeting of the Bank of England. As expected, the central bank of Great Britain will keep the key interest rate unchanged after the Bank of England lowered the rate to a record low of 0.25% one year ago. Due to weak inflation and modest economic growth, most representatives of the Central Bank are expected to continue to oppose higher rates. The decision on the rates will be published at 11:00 (GMT), and at 11:30 (GMT) a press conference will begin, during which the Bank of England's head Mark Carney will outline the bank's position on the future of monetary policy in the UK, Current economic situation in the country. In the period from 11:00 to 12:00 (GMT), a surge in volatility is expected not only in pound trade, but throughout the financial market.
After this, the attention of traders will shift to tomorrow's publication (12:30 GMT) of data from the labor market in the US for July. The dollar recovered slightly in the foreign exchange market during the Asian session and after the report on the change in the number of employees (from ADP) was published yesterday. This report indicated an improvement in the labor market situation in the US in July (+178,000 new employees in the private sector of the US against growth of 191,000 in June and a forecast of +185,000). The index of the dollar WSJ rose in the morning by 0.1%.
Also today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 13:45 and 14:00 (GMT) of the US data (business activity indices from Markit and ISM in the services sector for July and the level of production orders in June). If the data comes out with positive values, it will be of great importance for the dollar on the eve of tomorrow's publication of data from the labor market in the United States.
It is expected that unemployment fell by 0.1% in July to 4.3%, while the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy increased by 183 000 in July. These are very strong indicators.
As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester stated yesterday, one should adhere to the planned course of monetary policy, The basic fundamental indicators of economic growth remain strong, which speaks in favor of strong economic growth next year. "I think it will be necessary to further curtail soft policy by gradually raising the rates for federal funds", Mester added.
The prospect of raising rates puts pressure on prices for precious metals and stimulates dollar purchases. At the same time, the domestic political uncertainty in the US, connected with the difficulties in implementing President Donald Trump's presidential campaign to stimulate the US economy, contradictory indicators of the US economic indicators put pressure on the dollar and support the gold quotes. Gold does not bring interest income. But in periods of a soft monetary policy, the demand for gold, which has the status of a safe haven during periods of political instability, is growing.

Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the month on the daily chart of the pair XAU/USD formed "Doge" and 2 more consecutively decreasing candles. The pair XAU / USD could not break the upper boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart near the level of 1273.00 and is deployed inside the channel.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour and daily charts went to the side of sellers. In case of an increase in negative dynamics and breakdown of support levels of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50% correction to the wave of decline from July 2016 and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart),
1242.00 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart), the pair XAU / USD will again return to the downtrend with immediate targets at support levels 1229.00, 1220.00 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 1205.00 (July lows).
In case of resumption of growth and after the breakdown of resistance levels 1273.00, 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), the pair XAU / USD will go to the level of 1295.00 (highs of June and the year and the upper line of the range located between the levels 1185.00 and 1295.00).
Support levels: 1260.00, 1248.00, 1242.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
Levels of resistance: 1273.00, 1277.00, 1295.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1255.00. Stop-Loss 1267.00. Take-Profit 1248.00, 1242.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
Buy Stop 1267.00. Stop-Loss 1255.00. Take-Profit 1273.00, 1277.00, 1295.00

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: US indices grow on the eve of NFP
04/08/2017

Current dynamics
In anticipation of the publication of the monthly report on the US labor market, which will be released today at 12:30 (GMT), there is a sluggish dynamics in the financial markets. Today's data may be key to the dynamics of the dollar and US stock indices. It is expected that in July there were 180,000 new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the economy (in June the increase was 222,000 seats).
Market attention will also be focused on data on wages in the US. It is expected that hourly wages in the US in July increased by 0.3% compared with June.
If the data on the labor market coincides with the forecast or will be better, the stock indexes will grow, despite the fact that the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy in the US remain.
Yesterday, very positive macro statistics on the United States were published. Production orders in June increased by 3.0% compared to the previous month. According to the report, the growth of new orders was the strongest in two years, which led to the fact that the rate of increase in employment was the strongest this year. The composite index of supply managers (PMI) in July rose to 54.6 against 53.9 in June.
Earlier in the week, ISM presented a report stating that "the conditions for doing business have improved, and new orders, production, employment, outstanding orders and exports increased in July compared to June."
The data presented confirm the stable trend of the recovery of the US economy, and this supports the bullish trend of the American stock market. US indices this year reached new highs supported by good company results and signs of recovery of world economic growth.
Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen to another record level of 22070.0, and its positive dynamics persists.
Nevertheless, at the time of today's publication of data from the US labor market, a surge in volatility is expected across the entire financial market, which must be taken into account when making trade decisions.

Support and resistance levels
The DJIA index is developing the upward trend, being in a bullish trend since February 2016.
For the last 4 months of continuous growth, DJIA has grown by more than 6%, and today has updated the annual and absolute maximum, having risen to 22070.0.
Long positions are still relevant. Only in case of breakdown of the short-term support level of 21880.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) can we again return to consideration of short positions with the aim near the levels 20600.0, 21300.0 (July lows).
And only in case of breakdown of the support level of 20500.0 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the growth in the wave from the level of 15660.0 after the recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci 0% level is near the mark of 22000.0) We can talk about the breakdown of the bullish trend. Through the level 20500.0 also passes EMA200 on the daily chart. This level, therefore, is the key.
Support levels: 22000.0, 21880.0, 21600.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20500.0
Resistance levels: 22070.0, 22300.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 22080.0. Stop-Loss 21950.0. Take-Profit 22150.0, 22300.0
Sell Stop 21950.0. Stop-Loss 22080.0. Take-Profit 21880.0, 21600.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20500.0

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Dollar grows on positive NFP
07/08/2017
Current dynamics
After the strongest monthly increase recorded on Friday, when favorable macro data on the US labor market came out, the dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market from the opening of the trading day on Monday.
The number of jobs outside of US agriculture increased by 209,000 in July (the forecast was + 180,000 jobs), the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.3%, the average hourly wage rose by 0.3% (+2,5% in annual terms). Such data was led on Friday by the US Department of Labor showed that the conditions in the US labor market remain a positive factor in the recovery of the US economy.
Favorable data on employment in the US have eased fears about the probability of an increase in interest rates by the Fed this year. Thus, according to the CME Group, the probability of an increase in rates by the end of the year is estimated at about 50% versus 43% before the release of the labor market report.
Prices for asylum assets, such as government bonds, yen, franc and gold, sensitive to higher rates in the US, after the release of data on the labor market declined. Yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, rose to 2.269% compared with the level of 2.230% recorded on Thursday. August gold futures fell by 0.7% to 1258.30 dollars.
The spot price for gold at the beginning of today's European session is near the mark of 1258.00 dollars per troy ounce, which is slightly lower than the closing price on Friday. The prospect of raising rates puts pressure on prices for precious metals and stimulates dollar purchases. Gold does not bring interest income. In periods of the interest rate increase, the cost of its acquisition and storage is growing.
Also, the dollar quotes reacted positively to the comments of the director of the National Council for Economy under the White House Gary Cohn about the prospects for tax reform in a television interview. According to him, the tax plan of the White House provides for stimulating American companies to repatriate foreign incomes, which will support the national currency.

Support and resistance levels
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, monthly charts of the pair XAU / USD went to the side of sellers.
XAU / USD broke the short-term support level of 1261.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to develop a downward trend towards the support levels of 1255.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1250.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 11248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016). The breakdown of the support level of 1244.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will provoke further decline of the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downward trend.
In case of resumption of growth and after the breakdown of resistance levels 1273.00, 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), the pair XAU / USD will go to the level of 1295.00 (highs of June and the year and the upper line of the range located between the levels 1185.00 and 1295.00).
So far, the downward trend is prevailing.
Support levels: 1255.00, 1250.00, 1248.00, 1244.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
Resistance levels: 1261.00, 1273.00, 1277.00, 1295.00

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1255.00. Stop-Loss 1260.00. Take-Profit 1250.00, 1248.00, 1242.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00
Buy Stop 1260.00. Stop-Loss 1255.00. Take-Profit 1273.00, 1277.00, 1295.00

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: the euro keeps positive momentum
08/08/2017
Current dynamics
Despite data provided yesterday by the German Ministry of Economy, industrial production in June fell by 1.1%. This was the first reduction in production since December last year. Germany's exports in June compared with May decreased by 2.8%. The reduction of exports was noted this year for the first time: in the period from January to May, exports grew. Such data was provided today by the statistical office of Germany.
Nevertheless, Germany's foreign trade surplus rose in June (EUR 21.2 billion versus EUR 20.3 billion in May and EUR 21.0 billion forecasted). The positive balance of the current account of Germany's balance of payments in June amounted to 23.6 billion euros compared to 16 billion euros in May.
Despite the unexpected decline in industrial output in June, the German economy shows steady signs of stable recovery.
According to the forecast of the IFO Institute, in the second quarter Germany's GDP grew by 0.8% (official data will be released next week).
On September 24 parliamentary elections are planned in Germany. They will go against the backdrop of strong economic growth and low unemployment, which in turn will contribute to the victory of the center-right bloc headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Stability of the domestic political situation in Germany, as well as strong growth rates of the largest economy of the Eurozone contribute to the positive dynamics of the EUR / USD pair.
Meanwhile, the dollar stabilized on Tuesday after strong growth on Friday amid glaring indicators of the US labor market. Yesterday's comments by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard that the latest inflation data "cast doubt on the view that US inflation is confidently returning to the target level" contributed to a reduction in the likelihood of another increase in the interest rate in the United States. According to the CME Group, investors consider a 46% chance of raising the Fed's key interest rate this year, against 50% on Monday.
Slowing inflation may not allow the Fed to raise interest rates, and this is a strong negative factor for the dollar.
Friday (12:30 GMT) data on inflation in the US for July will be published, and if it fall below the forecast, the pressure on the dollar may recover.
Today, in the absence of important news, it is assumed that the volume of trading will be small, and the dynamics of currency pairs, including the EUR / USD pair, is weak.

Support and resistance levels
Support level 1.1780 (EMA200 on 1-hour, EMA50 on 4-hour charts and Fibonacci level 38.2% of corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from 1.3900 level) did not allow the EUR / USD pair to develop a downward correction against the background of the publication on Friday of data from the American labor market.
Despite a 100-point corrective decline, the pair EUR / USD remains positive, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, above the key support level 1.1610 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). In case of resumption of growth and breakdown of the local resistance level 1.1890, the target will be the levels of 1.2050, 1.2180 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
The signal to decline will be the consolidation below the support level 1.1780. In this case, a decrease to levels 1.1610 is likely. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 1.1570 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) can we take the short positions on the EUR / USD pair more seriously.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1715, 1.1685, 1.1610, 1.1570
Resistance levels: 1.1890, 1.2050, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1765. Stop-Loss 1.1830. Take-Profit 1.1715, 1.1685, 1.1650, 1.1610, 1.1570
Buy Stop 1.1830. Stop-Loss 1.1765. Take-Profit 1.1890, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2180

 

[TifiaFX]

XAG/USD: demand for precious metals has increased
09/08/2017

Current dynamics
The escalation of geopolitical tensions, provoked by North Korea's threats against the United States, caused a sharp increase in demand for safe haven assets - yen, franc and precious metals. In recent days, North Korea has threatened to use nuclear weapons against the US in the event of a military provocation. Yesterday, the media reported that the North Korean army is "carefully studying" the operational plan for a missile strike on Guam. If the plan is implemented, "the United States will be the first to experience the power of strategic weapons", the DPRK said.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump demanded that North Korea "stop further threats" against the US, saying that the answer would be "the fire and fury that the world has not seen so far".
At the end of yesterday's trading session and with the opening of today's trading day, prices for precious metals soared. The troy ounce of gold has risen today by 7 dollars to 1267.00 dollars, silver - by 0.2 dollars to 16.60 dollars.
The investors' withdrawal from risks in connection with the increased geopolitical tension provoked also a decline in world stock indices and a rise in prices for government bonds.
As long as the situation around North Korea does not calm down, the demand for safe haven assets will continue. The dollar will also remain under pressure, despite strong data on the US labor market, published on Friday, which increases the likelihood of further interest rate increases in the US this year.
Precious metals do not bring investment income. However, in the context of increasing economic or political uncertainty, the demand for precious metals as a safe haven is growing. Under conditions of an increase in the interest rate in the US, the price of precious metals is falling, as the cost of their acquisition and storage is growing.
Today, investors will follow the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on labor costs and labor productivity in the US (excluding the agricultural sector) for the 2nd quarter. Positive data will support the dollar. Expected to grow by 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively.
Investors also expect the release of inflation data in the US (on Friday 12:30 GMT) to assess the pace of inflation acceleration after its recent slowdown. The growth of inflation indices can strengthen expectations regarding the increase in interest rates of the Fed, and this is a negative factor for the precious metals market. The probability of another increase in interest rates in the US this year is estimated today at about 46%, according to the CME Group.

Support and resistance levels
Since the middle of April, the pair XAG / USD is declining in the descending channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of the channel passes near the 14.30 mark (July lows), and the upper one - near the level of 16.80. A little higher, near the 17.00 mark, the resistance level passes (EMA200 on the daily chart). While XAG / USD is below these levels, the downward trend prevails, despite the current upward correction associated with the escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 16.45 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts), the descending dynamics will return, and after the breakdown of the local support level of 16.12 (August lows), the pair XAG / USD will go into the downlink on the daily chart with targets of 15.60, 14.90, 14.30 (July lows), 13.65 (the minimum of the global wave of decline in the pair XAG / USD since September 2012).
Support levels: 16.45, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30, 13.65
Resistance levels: 16.80, 17.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 16.43. Stop-Loss 16.68. Take-Profit 16.38, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30
Buy Stop 16.68. Stop-Loss 16.43. Take-Profit 16.80, 17.00

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD / USD: monetary policy has not changed
10/08/2017
Current dynamics
As expected, the RBNZ kept the current interest rate in New Zealand at the same level of 1.75%. The RBNZ stated that against the backdrop of "many uncertainties," monetary policy "will remain soft in the foreseeable future," but "can be adjusted accordingly." For a stable recovery of the New Zealand economy and rising inflation of the value of traded goods, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed."
In response to the publication of the decision on the rate of the pair, the New Zealand dollar / dollar briefly jumped to 0.7370 from 0.7340, but then declined during the Asian session, and at the beginning of the European session it was already trading near the 0.7270 mark.
Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, continue to decline in the foreign exchange market amid the continuing geopolitical tensions in the Asian region. The second day in a row, North Korea is threatening the United States. On Tuesday, the media reported that the North Korean army is "carefully studying" the operational plan for a missile strike on Guam. "The United States will be the first to experience the power of strategic weapons," the DPRK declared. US President Donald Trump demanded that North Korea "stop further threats" against the US, saying that the answer would be "the fire and the rage that the world has not seen so far." This time, North Korea threatened to "shell out from all sides" the territory of Guam in the coming weeks.
As a result of its 10-day decline, the pair NZD / USD completely leveled its July growth. According to economists, "the current rate is more appropriate to short-term fundamental factors" and "approached its average value over the past year."
As the geopolitical situation in the Asian region stabilizes, the New Zealand dollar will be able to maintain its position in the foreign exchange market due to rising commodity prices, also receiving support from long-term investors who prefer safe long-term investments. Preservation of the current interest rate at 1.75% in the long term will also contribute to this.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The pair NZD / USD broke through an important short-term support level of 0.7350 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and remains under pressure. Today, the NZD / USD pair has reached an important support level of 0.7285 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and is developing a downward movement to the level of support
0.7240 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers, signaling a strong negative impulse.
While NZD / USD is trading above the support level of 0.7150 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward dynamics is maintained. In the case of breakdown at the level of 0.7150, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.
The alternative scenario is to return to the zone above the level of 0.7350 and resume growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level). Meanwhile, it is too early to talk about long positions on the NZD / USD pair. Only a breakdown at 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend.
Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7150
Resistance levels: 0.7285, 0.7350, 0.7418, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7250. Stop-Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7150
Buy Stop 0.7310. Stop-Loss 0.7250. Take-Profit 0.7418, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550, 0.7600

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: World oil supply grows
11/08/2017
Overview and dynamics
As reported today by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world oil supply in July increased by 520,000 barrels a day, even despite the arrangements in OPEC. Growth in the supply of oil has been observed for 3 consecutive months. The supply of oil in the world increased in July to 98.16 million barrels per day, which is by 500,000 barrels per day more than in the same period last year. OPEC oil production in July increased by 230,000 barrels per day and reached 32.84 million barrels per day, the high of 2017. The increase in OPEC production of the cartel is primarily due to the increase in production in Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from participation in the transaction.
The investors' skepticism about the effectiveness of OPEC measures is maintained due to poor compliance with the agreements on the reduction of oil production. All this imposes a negative imprint on the dynamics of oil prices.
Prices fell on Thursday, despite the earlier data from the US Energy Ministry on oil reserves in the US (Wednesday 14:30 GMT). According to the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States, US oil inventories fell 6.451 million barrels last week, which was the sixth consecutive week.
Today we are waiting for the publication at 17:00 (GMT) of the report of the oilfield service company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices.
The US successfully used the situation with a rise in prices against OPEC actions last year and increased production by 750,000 barrels a day to 9.3 million barrels per day, the highest since summer 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset.
At the moment, there are 765 active drilling rigs in the USA. If the number of installations increases again, this will negatively affect oil prices.

Support and resistance levels
The price of Brent crude oil was unable to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) on Thursday and the second day is going down.
While the price is below the short-term resistance level of 51.85 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the downside dynamics will increase, and the downside correction target will be the support level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as Fibonacci 61, 8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
If the price breaks through the key support level of 50.70, then the decline will accelerate, risking again moving into a bearish trend. The targets then will be support levels 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). The more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
The scenario for growth implies breakdown of the resistance level of 52.90 and an increase to the resistance level of 54.75 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and May highs). The signal to growth will be the fixing of the price above the level of 51.85.
Support levels: 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Resistance levels: 51.85, 52.90, 54.00, 54.75

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 51.10. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20, 44.50
Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 51.10. Take-Profit 52.90, 54.00, 54.75

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: the dollar regains positions
14/08/2017
Current dynamics
Friday's weak inflation data in the US, as well as an escalation in tensions between the US and North Korea, caused the dollar to fall on Friday and the demand for safe haven assets was growing.
As reported by the US Labor Department, in July, consumer prices rose by 0.1% (the forecast was + 0.2%). The index pointed to a worsening of the outlook for price growth in the US, which weakened expectations of an increase in interest rates by the Fed this year.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that his previously voiced threats to reply North Korea with "fire and fury" apparently sounded "not tough enough." And on Saturday Donald Trump said that the United States is ready to strike North Korea, if it does not stop threatening the United States.
As a result, on Friday, demand for gold continued to remain at high levels.
On Friday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that the current level of interest rates is acceptable. Another Fed spokesman, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said that the Fed should wait with higher rates until inflation approaches the target of 2%. "We still can not reach the target level of inflation, and the growth of wages remains slow," Kashkari said.
Now investors expect a rate hike in December with a probability of 38% (on Friday the probability was estimated at 47%), according to the CME Group.
Gold, as you know, does not bring interest income. But it is growing in price in periods of low interest rates and political or economic instability in the world.
So far, the demand for it is supported, mainly against the backdrop of domestic political instability in the United States and the tension in relations with the DPRK. As the geopolitical tensions decrease, investors' attention will again shift to economic indicators.
Still, the risk of an increase in the US interest rate in December, despite the low level of inflation, exists. Strong labor market in the US indicates a stable state of the economy in the country.
Tomorrow, investors will focus on the publication of inflation indicators for the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) are published retail sales indices for July, which are a leading indicator, and indices of export-import prices. Forecast: retail sales increased by 0.3% (against -0.2% in June), which should support the dollar quotes.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the dollar is recovering its positions in the foreign exchange market, and gold is getting cheaper.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts of the pair XAU / USD turned to short positions.
Probably further decline to support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1273.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
In the case of breakdown of these levels and the development of a downward correction, it is likely that the support level of 1260.00 (the bottom line of the uplink and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will decrease to the support level.
The breakdown of support levels 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50.0%), 1244.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will provoke further decline of the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.
The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the resistance level of 1295.00 (the highs of June and the year and the upper line of the range located between the levels of 1185.00 and 1295.00) and further growth.
So far, against the background of the dollar's recovery, the downward short-term dynamics is dominating.
Support levels: 1277.00, 1273.00, 1260.00, 1248.00, 1244.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
Levels of resistance: 1295.00

Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1285.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1273.00, 1260.00, 1248.00, 1244.00
Buy Stop 1285.00. Stop-Loss 1279.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1295.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: producer price growth slowed
15/08/2017
Current dynamics
The consumer price index (CPI) of the UK in July compared with July last year increased by 2.6% (the forecast was + 2.7%). Thus, according to the data presented today, in July the annual rate of consumer inflation did not change with respect to June. But the annual growth rate of purchasing prices of producers in July slowed sharply - to 6.5% from 10% in June.
As a result of the sharp weakening of the pound after the referendum on Brexit in May, consumer price inflation accelerated to a maximum of 2.9% in mid-2013. Against the background of the weakening of the pound, the purchasing power of the British sharply decreased, which sharply limited their spending.
Retail sales are one of the main "fillers" of British GDP. The slowdown in inflation favorably influences the British economy, which is oriented primarily toward the domestic market. Improving the situation in the service sector for consumers, which has recovered due to strong retail sales, contributes to GDP growth in the UK. So, according to official data released last Wednesday, in the second quarter, the British economy grew by 0.3% after rising 0.2% in the 1st quarter.
The pound declined after the publication of today's data on inflation, but the British stock index FTSE rose, indicating the favorable impact of slowing inflation on the growth of the British economy. Yet the main risk for the UK economy remains Brexit.
For today (at 12:30 GMT) it is planned to publish important data from the US - inflation indicators for July (retail sales), as well as import-export price indices.
High level of retail sales will strengthen the US dollar. Forecast: + 0.4% (against -0.2% in June).
The weak values of the indicators will put pressure on the dollar, which is now recovering in the foreign exchange market after it became known that the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un decided not to attack Guam after consulting with the military command. This was also facilitated by China's decision to support the sanctions against Pyongyang imposed by the United States.

Support and resistance levels
The pair GBP / USD broke through the important short-term support levels of 1.3000 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2960 (EMA50 on the daily chart, the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart) and is rapidly declining to the key support level 1.2860 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Break of this level will speak about the completion of the upward correction and will strengthen the risks of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.
The alternative scenario is connected with the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the level of 1.3000 and the resumption of growth. The closest target in this case will be resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next target.
So far, the downward trend is dominating, as evidenced by the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts turned to short positions.
Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2800
Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2850. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2815, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

 

[TifiaFX]

XAG / USD: demand for precious metals declined
16/08/2017

Current dynamics
After the tension in relations between North Korea and the United States declined and against the background of positive data on retail sales received from the US, the dollar regains its positions in the foreign exchange market, and the demand for safe haven assets, including precious metals, is declining.
A few hours after China supported sanctions against Pyongyang imposed by the United States, North Korea refused to threaten to attack the United States.
As reported yesterday by the US Department of Commerce, July data on retail sales exceeded expectations, an increase of 0.6% against the forecast (0.4%). Data on retail sales supported the further strengthening of the dollar and encouraged the buyers of the dollar, putting on its further growth.
Today, the focus of traders will be the publication (18:00 GMT) of the protocol from the July Fed meeting to understand the prospects for monetary policy in the US.
In recent weeks, Fed officials have talked about the weakness of inflation and uncertainty in fiscal policy. Published on Friday, inflation data increased fears that the price dynamics did not meet the expectations of the Fed. The consumer price index (CPI) in July rose by 0.1% compared to June, and by 1.7% compared to July of the previous year (the target level of annual inflation established by the Federal Reserve is 2%).
The protocols, apparently, will also contain information on the continuation of the discussion on inflation, which remains weak and, in the opinion of some leaders of the Fed, may become a hindrance to further tightening of monetary policy in the US.
This year, the Fed will hold three more meetings devoted to monetary policy: September 19 - 20, October 31 - November 1, and December 12 - 13. After the September and December meetings, the Fed will publish its new economic forecasts, while Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will hold a press conference.
According to the CME Group, investors are taking into account the 53% chance of raising the Fed's interest rates in the price this year. Before the release of data on retail sales, they estimated such a probability of 37%.
As is known, in the conditions of increase in the rate the price for precious metals, including silver, falls, as the cost of its acquisition and storage is growing.

Support and resistance levels
The pair XAG / USD was unable to develop an uptrend above the resistance level of 17.22 (August highs and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). Having broken the key level 17.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), XAG / USD is falling deeper into the descending channel on the daily chart.
At the moment, XAG / USD is trading at the support level of 16.58 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart). A break of this level will signal the continuation of the downward movement.
While XAG / USD is below the level of 17.00, the downside dynamics prevails.
In case of breakdown of the local support level of 16.12 (August lows), the pair XAG / USD will go into the downward channel on the daily chart towards its lower boundary with the targets of 15.60, 14.90, 14.30 (July lows), 13.65 (minimum of the global wave of the pair XAG / USD decline September 2012).
Support levels: 16.58, 16.45, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30, 13.65
Levels of resistance: 16.80, 17.00, 17.22

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 16.55. Stop-Loss 16.70. Take-Profit 16.45, 16.38, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30
Buy Stop 16.70. Stop-Loss 16.55. Take-Profit 16.80, 17.00, 17.22

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: revenue growth lags behind inflation
17/08/2017
Current dynamics

As follows from yesterday's July minutes of the Fed meeting, there is no consensus among US central bank executives about further interest rate hikes. Slowing inflation forced some Fed officials to propose to refrain from further raising rates. "In the current conditions, the Fed can show patience", the protocols say. Earlier, the Fed planned to raise rates three times this year, but the protocols published on Wednesday make it doubtful.
After the publication of the minutes, the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The index of the US dollar, WSJ, estimating the value of the dollar against 16 other major world currencies, fell by 0.4%, to 86.33.
Nevertheless, today the dollar is recovering its positions during the European trading session. This applies to the pair GBP / USD, which is declining after the publication of data on retail sales in the UK for July. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), presented today at the beginning of the European session, retail sales growth in the UK in July was modest (+ 0.3% vs. +0.2 forecast). The estimation of sales growth for June was reduced to 0.3% from 0.6%. In annual terms, growth was also modest (+ 1.3% vs. + 1.4%, according to the forecast).
The British economy, largely dependent on domestic consumption, grew by just 0.3% in the second quarter (+ 0.2% in the first quarter).
According to data published earlier this week, real British salaries in June declined for the fourth consecutive month. Because of the sharp increase in inflation against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the pound after the referendum on Brexit, the real income growth of the British lags behind inflation, which is confirmed by the almost zero increase in personal expenses of the British and the level of retail sales.
Sales in all categories, except for food and household goods, in comparison with the previous month decreased.
In July, inflation was 2.6% against a nearly four-year high of 2.9% in May, well above the Bank of England's target of 2%.
We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decline to 240,000 versus 244,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the dollar. If the data is confirmed or better, the dollar will receive additional support.

Support and resistance levels
Since the beginning of August, the GBP / USD pair is actively declining. On the daily chart, GBP / USD fell back to the key support level of 1.2860 (EMA200). Downward dynamics prevails. Breakdown of this level will strengthen the risk of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.
An alternative scenario relates to the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the level of 1.2980 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts) and the resumption of growth. The closest target in this case will be the resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next growth target.
Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2800
Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2850. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2815, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: The ECB is concerned about the strengthening of the euro
18/08/2017
Current dynamics
Despite the decline in the dollar, the pair EUR / USD remains under pressure (so far in the short term). Published on Thursday, the minutes of the July meeting of the ECB pointed out that the central bank is concerned about the strengthening of the single European currency this year.
"There were fears about the risk of excessive growth of the euro in the future", - so it was said in the minutes.
The strengthening of the Euro-currency negatively affects the economy of the Eurozone, as it makes European goods less competitive abroad. Weak rates of inflation in the Eurozone also contribute to the ECB's prolonging the stimulus program for the Eurozone economy for at least six months.
As you know, the program QE in the Eurozone ends in December. Despite the fact that the Eurozone economy shows signs of stable growth, which is also due to the ECB, which pursues an extra soft monetary policy, inflation is still far below the target level of the ECB just below 2.0%.
At the same time, the dollar also remains under pressure after the minutes published on Wednesday from the July Fed meeting. Investors continue to assess the prospects for an increase in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate in December with a probability of below 40%.
The leadership of the US central bank still can not unanimously decide to raise rates in conditions of slow inflation. And this is a negative factor for the dollar.
Thus, the EUR / USD pair is currently in the grip of the need to maintain a low interest rate in the Eurozone and the Fed's hesitancy in the matter of monetary policy, which makes both currencies vulnerable from this point of view.
The US dollar, meanwhile, declined during the Asian session and at the beginning of the European session.
If we consider that today is the last trading day of the week, then in the second half of the US session, we should expect some strengthening of the US currency against the background of closing short positions on the dollar and fixing profits.
The news background is calm today. Volatility may intensify at the beginning of the US trading session, when at 12:30 (GMT) the consumer price index (CPI) in Canada (for July) is published.

Support and resistance levels
The pair EUR / USD is in a downward correction short-term trend since the beginning of August, when strong data was published from the US labor market.
Repeated attempts to test the support level 1.1690 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart) have not yet led to its breakdown.
If the EUR / USD decline continues, the breakdown of the support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on 4-hour and weekly charts) will strengthen the risks of a return to the downtrend.
However, only in case of breakdown of the support level 1.1150 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will EUR/USD return to a downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics do not give a clear signal.
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the local resistance level 1.1780 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline from 1.3900), the EUR / USD is likely to strengthen further. The growth targets will be the levels of 1.1835, 1.1890 (the highs of the year), 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2180 (50% Fibonacci level).
Support levels: 1.1690, 1.1630
Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1835, 1.1890, 1.1910, 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1785. Take-Profit 1.1690, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1550
Buy Stop 1.1785. Stop-Loss 1.1710. Take-Profit 1.1835, 1.1890, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2180

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: the decline continues
21/08/2017
Current dynamics
After Thursday, Wal-Mart Stores and Cisco Systems reported on the results, their shares fell significantly, pulling the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which dropped 1.2% (274 points) to 21751 points. This was the most significant decline since May 2017. The shares of all 30 companies, traded in DJIA, and all 11 main sectors in the S & P500 index fell.
A portion of the disappointing financial statements of companies, which include large retailers and giants of the technology sector, as well as the terrorist attack in Spain, provoked the strongest intraday drop in the major US stock indices, which was the second this month.
On Monday, there is a continued decline in major US stock indexes, including DJIA. Investors' attention this week will be focused on comments by representatives of world central banks, including Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi.
In general, the negative mood of investors, the tendency to exit from risky assets and the withdrawal of funds into safe assets prevail. Thus, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose to 2.202% from 2.196%, gold quotes also remain propped up after last Friday the price of gold exceeded the annual maximum and the mark of 1300.00 dollars per ounce for a short time.
If today the decline in indices continues, it will be the third consecutive week of falling indices. The news background today for the US stock market, in general, is neutral.
Low trading volumes and investor caution on the eve of the Jackson Hole conference increase the likelihood of a short-term spike in volatility and a return of the price to the current range.

Support and resistance levels
Having broken through the important short-term support levels 21825.0 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 21755.0 (EMA200), DJIA found today support at the level of 21650.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
The predominant negative short-term dynamics. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
Probably the continuation of the correction decrease to the level of support 21500.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
In case of resumption of growth and consolidation above the level of 21825.0 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), the DJIA will move towards the recent absolute maximum near the level of 22177.0.
If the decline continues, then after the breakdown of the support level of 21500.0, the target may be the support level of 20630.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the level Fibonacci 0% is near the mark of 22000.0). Through the level 20630.0 also passes EMA200 on the daily chart. This level, therefore, is key to the bullish trend of DJIA.
Support levels: 21710.0, 21650.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20630.0
Resistance levels: 21770.0, 21840.0, 21950.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 21785.0. Stop-Loss 21600.0. Take-Profit 21825.0, 21950.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0
Sell Stop 21600.0. Stop-Loss 21785.0. Take-Profit 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20630.0

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: the US dollar is recovering
22/08/2017
Current dynamics
During today's Asian session and at the beginning of the European session, the US dollar is restoring its positions in the foreign exchange market. In recent days, both domestic political uncertainty in the US, as well as ambiguous US economic indicators, have reduced the hopes of investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar that the Federal Reserve will implement the third rate hike this year. According to interest rate futures, on Monday, market participants assessed the likelihood of further increases in US Fed rates this year at 40% versus 43% last month.
From 24 to 26 August in Jackson Hole (USA) will host an annual economic conference, organized by the Fed, which will address the heads of the world's largest central banks. In the center of attention – is the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. She is expected to point out how the management of the central bank assesses the situation in the country's economy, and what are the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. If she makes any hints about the possibility of another interest rate hike by the end of the year, despite the low inflation in the US, the dollar will significantly strengthen in the foreign exchange market.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar on Monday rose slightly against the US dollar, which was down against the major currencies. The strengthening of the Canadian currency was also due to the reduction in the difference in the yields of government bonds of Canada and the United States.
Today, the US dollar is growing, restoring positions, which is also reflected in the growth of USD / CAD. Today its dynamics can be affected by the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on retail sales in Canada for June.
The index is published monthly by Statistics Canada and estimates the total amount of retail sales. This index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for CAD, the decline in the index will negatively affect CAD.
A slight, almost zero, growth is expected (+ 0.3% vs. + 0.6% in May). If the data is even weaker, the Canadian dollar will fall in the foreign exchange market, including the USD / CAD pair.

Support and resistance levels
Late last month, the pair USD / CAD reached its next annual low near support level 1.2420 and returned to the range located between 1.2490 (EMA200) and 1.2740 (EMA144 on the weekly chart, Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global ascending Trend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700). Near the level of 1.2740 also passes the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart.
In case of consolidation above the level of 1.2635 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the USD / CAD growth will resume with the target of 1.2740. A more distant goal is the level of 1.3120 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, EMA200 on the daily chart and the December lows).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and weekly charts turned to long positions.
If the pair continues to decline, the USD / CAD will go to support level 1.2490 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The breakdown of support levels 1.2170 (50% Fibonacci level), 1.2030 (EMA200 on the monthly chart) will finally break the long-term bullish trend of the pair USD / CAD, which began in September 2012.
Support levels: 1.2565, 1.2490, 1.2420, 1.2170, 1.2030
Resistance levels: 1.2605, 1.2635, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2785, 1.2800, 1.2860, 1.2920, 1.3015, 1.3120, 1.3200

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 1.2610. Stop-Loss 1.2565. Take-Profit 1.2635, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2785, 1.2800, 1.2860, 1.2920 Sell Stop 1.2565. Stop-Loss 1.2610. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2400, 1.2170

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: New Zealand economic growth forecasts revised
23/08/2017
Current dynamics
According to a report published on Tuesday on economic and financial conditions in New Zealand, forecasts for the growth of the New Zealand economy were revised with a slight decrease.
Finance Minister Stephen Joyce said that in the next four years, the average growth rate of New Zealand's GDP could reach 3%, whereas earlier it was forecasted an average annual growth rate of 3.1%.
The New Zealand dollar is actively declining since the beginning of August. Over the past two days, the NZD / USD pair has declined by about 100 points or by 1.3%.
This is also promoted by the growth of quotations of the US dollar on the eve of the economic conference in Jackson Hole, which will be held on August 24-26. The conference will feature the heads of the world's leading central banks. From the chairman of the Fed, Janet Yellen is waiting for statements in favor of a third increase in interest rates in the US for the current year.
The dollar fell more than 7% this year, it will have a significant growth space if the Fed's rhetoric points to their tendency to tighten monetary and credit policy.
The growth of the US dollar is also facilitated by the fact that investors are less concerned about the tensions between the US and North Korea, as well as political uncertainty in Washington. Yesterday's comments by Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, and Mitch McConnell, leader of the republican majority in the Senate, that the tax reform and raising the public debt limit will be implemented without difficulty, also contribute to improving investor sentiment towards the US currency.
Today (22:45 GMT) important data on New Zealand's foreign trade balance are published. A slight increase in the balance deficit in July (-200 million New Zealand dollars) is expected, which should negatively affect the New Zealand dollar with the confirmation of the forecast. Any change in the state of the foreign trade balance of New Zealand will support the New Zealand currency.

Support and resistance levels
The pair NZD / USD broke through important short-term support levels of 0.7325 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7300 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and currently trades at the support level of 0.7240 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global fall wave Pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers, signaling a strong negative impulse.
While NZD / USD is trading above the support level of 0.7165 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward dynamics is maintained. In case of breakdown at the level of 0.7165, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.
The alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the level of 0.7325 and the resumption of growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart). Meanwhile, it is too early to talk about long positions on the NZD / USD pair. Only a breakdown at 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend.
Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7165
Resistance levels: 0.7255, 0.7300, 0.7325, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7205. Stop-Loss 0.7255. Take-Profit 0.7165
Buy Stop 0.7255. Stop-Loss 0.7205. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7325, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: prices stabilized in the range
24/08/2017
Current dynamics
On Thursday, oil prices showed a slight decrease, without leaving the range between the levels of 53.00, 51.00 dollars per barrel of Brent crude oil. A wider range is located between the levels of 53.40, 50.0 dollars per barrel, in which Brent crude is traded last month.
On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Ministry reported a drop in commercial oil and gasoline reserves in the country. Thus, crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels (forecast was -3.375 million barrels), gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels last week (the forecast was 500,000 barrels). As a result, oil prices rose on Wednesday. Oil futures on the NYMEX closed up by 1.21% at $ 48.41 per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the end of yesterday's trading day was close to $ 52.20 per barrel, which is about $ 1.0 higher than the previous closing price.
Nevertheless, significant price increases are not observed, despite the risks of interruptions in the work of US refineries associated with the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, and the reduction in oil and oil products in the United States.
Prospects of growth in oil production in the US have a negative impact on oil prices. World oil supply in July, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), rose by 520,000 barrels a day, even despite the arrangements in OPEC. Growth in the supply of oil has been observed for 3 consecutive months.
The activity of US oil companies is growing, significantly offsetting OPEC's efforts to reduce oil production and exports.
Today and tomorrow, investors will follow the speeches of the leaders of the Fed and the ECB at a conference in Jackson Hole on the plans of the central banks to tighten monetary policy. If Janet Yellen signals the markets about the possibility of another increase in the interest rate this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. Commodity prices, including oil, will come under pressure in this case.
On Friday at 5:00 pm (GMT), Baker Hughes, the oil service company, will publish a weekly report on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the US oil sector and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. If the number of installations increases again, this will also negatively affect oil prices.

Support and resistance levels
The price for Brent crude was in the range between levels of 53.40, 50.0 dollars per barrel in August. Despite today's decline, the price keeps positive dynamics above the key support levels of 50.70 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 50.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts again moved to the side of buyers.
If the growth continues, the target will be 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 53.40 (August highs), 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the upper bound of the rising channel on the daily chart).
The scenario for the decline involves a breakdown at the level of 50.70. The targets then will be support levels of 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). A more distant target is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower border of the descending channel on the weekly chart), which increases the risks of price return in the bearish trend.
Support levels: 51.30, 50.90, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Resistance levels: 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.70

Trading Scenarios
Sell by the market. Stop-Loss 52.35. Take-Profit 51.30, 50.90, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20
Buy Stop 52.35. Stop-Loss 51.70. Take-Profit 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.75

 

[TifiaFX]

EuroStoxx50: Stabilization before the speech of the head of the ECB
25/08/2017
Market participants took a wait-and-see approach on the eve of the Fed Chairman's statement (14:00 GMT) and the ECB head (19:00 GMT).
As follows from the minutes of the ECB meeting of July 20 published last week, the ECB's Governing Council is alarmed by the current strength of the euro. It is likely that the ECB will not rush to tighten the policy. Mario Draghi will try not to disturb the markets and is likely to favor the extension of the QE program and will be concerned about the high cost of the euro. In this case, the European indices will receive support and an incentive to resume growth.

Levels of support and resistance
Since May, when the EuroStoxx50 index reached its annual maximum near the 3680.0 mark, a downward correction began. The EuroStoxx50 index fell to support level 3440.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the downward correction to the wave of growth since July 2016 and from the level of 2675.0).
In case of breakdown of the level 3440.0, the EuroSTOXX50 index will go to the key support level of 3400.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Breakdown of this level increases the risks of further decline and breakdown of the bullish trend.
The reduction targets then can be support levels 3295.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 3265.0 (EMA200, EMA144 on the weekly chart).
The negative dynamics prevails. The European stock indexes are significantly influenced by the expectation of an early curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone, which ends in December. Preferred short positions, until the situation on this issue is clarified, and the QE program will not be extended.
Support levels: 3440.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3295.0, 3265.0
Resistance levels: 3482.0, 3500.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 3430.0. Stop-Loss 3480.0. Take-Profit 3390.0, 3325.0, 3295.0, 3265.0
Buy Stop 3480.0. Stop-Loss 3430.0. Take-Profit 3550.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Janet Yellen did not mention the topic of raising rates
28/08/2017
Current dynamics
The head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, disappointed investors who were betting on the growth of the US dollar, after not speaking last Friday on the topic of monetary policy and not signaling a further increase in the rate.
The US dollar fell sharply on Friday, and 10-year US government bonds rose in price. Their yield on the basis of trading on Friday was 2.169% against 2.194% on Thursday. Gold futures on Friday in the US rose in price by 0.4%, to 1291 dollars per ounce.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar became the leader of the decline last week after the New Zealand government lowered its forecast for economic growth for 2017-2018. Treasury Secretary Steven Joyce said that in the next four years, the average growth rate of New Zealand's GDP could reach 3%, whereas earlier it was forecasted an average annual growth rate of 3.1%.
The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure also on the eve of the forthcoming parliamentary elections in the country, scheduled for September 23. On September 27, the RBNZ regular meeting on monetary policy will be held.
In early August, RBNZ kept the current interest rate in New Zealand at the same level of 1.75%. The RBNZ stated that against the backdrop of "many uncertainties", monetary policy "will remain soft in the foreseeable future", but "can be adjusted accordingly". For a stable recovery of the New Zealand economy and rising inflation, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed".
It is likely that the interest rate will remain at the current level of 1.75%, and in the RBNZ will once again confirm the bank's propensity to pursue a soft monetary policy, which will keep the pressure on the New Zealand currency.
For today, the economic calendar is empty. In the course of the American session, a correction is likely on the US dollar against its decline on Friday.

Technical analysis
In July, the pair NZD / USD reached a new annual high near the mark of 0.7550 (Fibonacci level of 50% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart). However, the further growth of the pair stalled. In the future, as a result of the active decline, NZD / USD broke through the important support levels of 0.7300 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016) and decreased to the level of support 0.7190 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
The pressure on the New Zealand dollar and the NZD / USD pair persists.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
It is likely that the decline will continue to levels 0.7190, 0.7165 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
In the case of breakdown at the level of 0.7165, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower range between 0.7550 and 0.6860 levels) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.
The alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the level of 0.7300 and a resumption of growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level and the upper limit of the uplink on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 0.7190, 0.7165
Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7220. Stop-Loss 0.7260. Take-Profit 0.7190, 0.7165
Buy Stop 0.7260. Stop-Loss 0.7220. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550