Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: much depends on the dynamics of the US dollar
22/02/2018
Current dynamics
At the beginning of today's trading day, the dollar continued to rise after on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) the minutes from the January meeting of the Fed were published. From the text of the protocols, investors learned that the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support plans for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. At the December meeting, when the rate was raised for the third time in 2017, it became known about the Fed's intentions to raise the rate three times in 2018 and make two more increases in 2019.
During the January meeting, the US Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the key interest rate range of 1.25% -1.5% unchanged, but market participants expect that in March, when the first rate hike is expected to take place this year, the leaders of the Fed will add another increase in rates to the three planned.
And if this really happens, then the dollar will receive a strong support, despite the fact that there are a number of negative factors of a fundamental nature that cause investors to be wary of the dollar.
Among these negative factors - the growth of the federal budget deficit and the deficit of the foreign trade balance, which in December amounted to a record $ 566 billion, the highest level since 2008.
Meanwhile, at the beginning of the European trading session, the US dollar is once again declining.
To resume the growth of the dollar, additional signals from the Federal Reserve and macro statistics are needed. Important news from US is not expected until the end of the week, but it should pay attention to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of such an important inflation and macro statistical indicator as the level of retail sales in Canada. According to the forecast, in December retail sales in Canada are expected to grow by 0.2% after growing by 0.2% in November. The index of retail sales is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence. At the same time, retail trade is one of the most important components in filling the country's budget and GDP growth. A weak or negative value of this indicator is a negative factor for the Canadian dollar. If the value of the indicator is worse than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will decrease, including in the pair USD / CAD. And, conversely, an indicator exceeding the forecast value will help strengthen the Canadian dollar.
Also worth paying attention to the speeches of a number of representatives of the Fed, scheduled for 15:00, 17:10, 20:30 (GMT), which may have a short-term effect on the dynamics of the US dollar, and may for a short time cause a rise in volatility in US dollar trading .

Support levels: 1.2655, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2835, 1.2900

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2670. Stop-Loss 1.2720. Take-Profit 1.2655, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2720. Stop-Loss 1.2670. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: markets continue to recover
26/02/2018
Current dynamics
Last week, the main US stock indexes completed in positive territory. The main increase of the indices in the previous week was due to strong growth on Friday. While indices are growing, investors are still in a state of confusion after the recent stock market crash observed earlier this month. Market participants are trying to understand - what is happening in the market: the markets resumed growth to new record highs or it is a temporary rebound before a new jerk down.
The recent collapse in the stock markets was triggered, mainly, by increased inflation in the US, which could lead to more active actions of the Fed in the matter of tightening monetary policy. Against the backdrop of stable economic growth in the US and because of increased inflation, the Fed will be forced to raise rates at a faster pace in order to avoid overheating of the economy.
And this is a strong negative factor for the stock markets, which usually grow against the backdrop of soft monetary policy and fall, if the rates have started to rise. Much also depends on the speed and scale of tightening monetary policy.
In this regard, it is worth recalling the words of the former head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, that only raising rates is not enough to break the bullish trend of the US stock market, and a gradual increase in the rate indicates the strength of the American economy.
Now market participants will wait for the first speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, before the congress, which will be held on Tuesday (13:30 GMT). Investors want to hear from Powell, what is the probability that this year rates will be raised more than 3 times.
At the same time, many investors believe that during his first speech with a report on the results of the first half of the year, the new head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will point to a good form of the US economy, however, he will not say anything new about the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed. It is likely that Powell will try to emphasize the need for a gradual increase in the rates of the Fed, avoiding any hint of the possibility of a faster rate hike.
If Powell only hints at the possibility of raising rates more than 3 times this year, then the reaction of the markets can follow immediately: the dollar will jump in price, and the stock indexes will again fall down.
Meanwhile, the S&P500 index is trading higher for the third day in a row, adding to the price from the opening of today's trading day.
After the strongest collapse in early February, from February 9 futures on the S&P500 steadily adds to the price, gradually restoring positions, and at the beginning of today's European session S&p500 is trading near the mark of 2760.0. The index finished in positive territory 8 of the last 11 sessions since February 9 began recovery after the fall. Over the past two weeks, the S & P500 has gained about 5.0%, which was the strongest two-week increase since February 2015.
The S & P500 grew almost fourfold from the 2009 low, and the yield of 10-year US government bonds in 2016 dropped to 1.336% from a level above 4% recorded in 2008. Now, another increase in the yield of 10-year US government bonds above 3% may provoke another decline of not only the S & P500 index, but the entire US stock market, followed by other global stock markets.
From the news for today, which can cause the growth of volatility in the financial markets, we are waiting for the speech (at 13:00 GMT) of the member of the FRS Committee on Open Markets, James Bullard and ECB President Mario Draghi (at 14:00 GMT).
Support levels: 2725.0, 2682.0, 2630.0, 2580.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2688.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2780.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Positive dynamics, on the whole, persists
27/02/2018
Current dynamics
While market participants are waiting for the beginning of the speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who speaks for the first time before the Congress, trading activity in the financial markets remains low. Nevertheless, in the first half of the European session, the dollar is gradually turning into an offensive.
During the December Fed meeting, when the interest rate was again raised, the leaders of the US central bank announced the need for 3 interest rate increases in 2018 and 2 increases in 2019 to avoid overheating of the economy. At the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support the previously planned plans to tighten monetary policy. Judging by the minutes published last week from the January meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve decided that the economy will grow at a faster pace.
The expected strong increase in budget spending in the US, as well as the stimulation of the economy by lowering taxes on the activities of US corporations against a background of low unemployment, will contribute to the growth of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, can force the Fed to accelerate the pace of normalizing monetary policy.
The first rate increase under the new chairman Jerome Powell this year is likely to happen already at the March meeting of the Fed, and now market participants expect that in March, the leaders of the Fed will add another rate hike to the three planned this year.
And it is precisely such signals that market participants will wait for today and tomorrow from Powell. From him, investors want to hear what the probability of a more rapid increase in interest rates.
If Powell signals to market participants that there is a high probability of 4 interest rate increases this year, then the dollar quotations will rise and another US stock market collapse may occur.
As a rule, with an increase in the interest rate, the quotes of the national currency are growing. So far, there is an opposite picture - the dollar is under pressure. The growth of the federal budget deficit, the growing deficit of the foreign trade balance, which reached an impressive amount of 566 billion dollars in December, the highest level since 2008, causes a negative attitude of investors towards the dollar.
Neither the Fed's efforts to tighten monetary policy, nor verbal intervention by representatives of the Federal Reserve and the White House on the desirability of a strong dollar, do not yet cause a response from buyers of the dollar.
So yesterday's statement by the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin that "in the long term the United States needs a strong dollar" did not affect the dynamics of the dollar.
Now all the attention of investors today and tomorrow will be focused on the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell. On how tough his speeches will be, the dynamics of the dollar for the near future will depend.
During periods of increasing interest rates, gold usually becomes cheaper, giving way to assets that generate revenue, such as government bonds.
Meanwhile, the price of gold keeps positive dynamics. Many economists believe that, despite the expected increase in interest rates, gold still has good chances for growth as a means of protecting against the growth of consumer inflation.
The likelihood of further growth in gold prices outweighs the likelihood of their decline. The long-term targets for the growth of the gold price will be the mark of 1390.00, 1425.00 dollars per troy ounce. However, these goals can be set only after the price of gold overcomes the mark of $ 1365.00 per troy ounce (the maximum of this year).
Recall that the speech of Jerome Powell will start today at 13:30 (GMT).

Support levels: 1332.00, 1329.00, 1308.00, 1290.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1328.00. Stop-Loss 1342.00. Take-Profit 1308.00, 1290.00
Buy Stop 1342.00. Stop-loss 1328.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: The euro is under pressure before the weekend
28/02/2018
Current dynamics
As reported on Wednesday (10:00 GMT) by the European Statistical Agency (Eurostat), consumer prices in the Eurozone in February rose by 1.2% (in annual terms). The data suggest that inflation growth rates were the weakest since December 2016 and well below the ECB target level (just below 2%). In February, the rate of inflation slowed for the third month in a row. This index is a key indicator for the ECB in assessing inflation. The current value of the index indicates that the leaders of the ECB will continue to be cautious when considering the issue of reducing the stimulation of the European economy.
As ECB President Mario Draghi said on Monday, it is too early to talk about curtailing the quantitative easing program, since inflation is still far from the target level.
At the same time, the Eurozone economy continues to grow at a good pace (it is expected that GDP growth in 2017 was 2.5%). In 2017, the economy of the Eurozone grew at the fastest pace over the past 10 years, and, apparently, will keep momentum this year.
Mario Draghi again stressed that the ECB will continue its course on monetary policy without any changes. At a recent meeting of the ECB in 2017, it was decided that the program for the purchase of European assets will continue, at least until September 2018. At the same time, ECB interest rates will remain at the same low level for a long time after the end of the QE program.
Meanwhile, optimistic statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the US economy, made by him on Tuesday, supported the dollar. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, reached the highest level since early February, rising to around 90.40, completely closing the decline for the last two weeks.
Jerome Powell drew attention to improving economic prospects, which was considered by investors as an indication that this year the central bank can raise interest rates 4 times. Investors have corrected the forecasts for interest rates. According to CME, the probability of 4 rate increases this year is estimated at 34%. On Monday, this probability was 24%, and a month ago - 23%.
The EUR / USD fell 350 points from the peaks in February to a minimum in seven weeks near the 1.2200 mark.
The euro remains under pressure also because of investors' preoccupation before the elections in Italy and voting in the Social Democratic Party of Germany on the establishment of the ruling coalition this weekend.
Today, market participants will closely monitor the macro data that will be published today in the US (13:30 GMT).
Among the published data - annual GDP (for the 4th quarter), the index of expenditure on personal consumption and the price index of personal consumption expenditure. The growth of indicators is expected. Thus, GDP in Q4 is expected to grow by 2.5%, and for the entire 2017 GDP growth was also + 2.5%, which is higher than the average of 2% observed in the early 2000s.
When confirming the data, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen, including in the EUR / USD.

Support and resistance levels
After in the middle of this month the EUR / USD has reached the next multi-month maximum near the mark of 1.2555, the last two weeks there has been a decline in EUR / USD.
As a result of yesterday's decline against the background of the strengthening of the dollar after the statements of Jerome Powell, EUR / USD broke through the support level 1.2280 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and at the beginning of today's European session is trading near support level 1.2200 (low in February, lower mid-January consolidation zone, EMA50 on day chart and the Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
This is a strong level of support, the breakdown of which will significantly worsen prospects for the bullish trend EUR / USD.
Long-term upward dynamics persists as long as EUR / USD is trading above the key support levels 1.1790 (Fibonacci 38.2% and EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be a return to the zone above the resistance level 1.2280. In this case, EUR / USD will again move towards the recent highs near the level of 1.2555.
Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1700
Resistance levels: 1.2280, 1.2330, 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2180. Stop-Loss 1.2220. Take-Profit 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1700
Buy Stop 1.2220. Stop-Loss 1.2180. Take-Profit 1.2285, 1.2330, 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: before publishing data from the dairy auction
06/03/2018
Current dynamics
Investors are still assessing the possible long-term impact on international trade relations from the recent decision of the White House to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. "America is first of all". The US, as usual, does not particularly consider the interests of their closest trading partners when it comes to the interests of the US itself. "When a country (the USA) loses many billions of dollars in trade with almost all the countries with which it conducts business, trade wars are good, and they are easy to win", Trump wrote on Twitter, making it clear that these are normal methods of the US administration .
For American companies, primarily working in these sectors of the economy, this may be good, but for the nearest US trading partners - not very much. The European Commission and China announced the possibility of applying retaliatory measures.
If the US stock indices appear to have positively perceived the information on the protection of the domestic market through the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum,
the dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, strengthening against commodity currencies, and declining against the yen and European currencies. The second day the futures for the DXY index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 other currencies, are trading near the 89.90 mark.
At the beginning of today's European session, the dollar is growing against Canadian and Australian dollars, but is down against the New Zealand dollar.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.
Also worth paying attention to the publication on Thursday (02:00 GMT) of data on China's foreign trade balance (in February) which may have a significant impact on the New Zealand dollar and cause volatility in the NZD / USD pair, as China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand and the buyer of agricultural products of the country.

Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7258, 0.7265, 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7280. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6900, 0.6865
Buy Stop 0.7280. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: investors are concerned about the possibility of commencement of trade wars
07/03/2018
Current dynamics
More recently (at the end of last week), participants in the global financial market were concerned about the US decision to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. Today, this story was developed after it became known about the resignation of the chief economic adviser to President Donald Trump Gary Cohn, who opposed the introduction of new duties. His resignation upset the market participants, pointing out that Trump intends to pursue a tougher policy with regard to trading partners, and can unleash a large-scale trade war.
On this news, the currencies of those countries that actively trade with the US, including the Mexican peso and commodity currencies - the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar - fell sharply.
Also, the main US stock indexes fell, and asylum assets rose in price because of fears about US policy. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 2.863% from 2.877%, while the yen rose 0.4% against the dollar during the Asian trading session.
Representatives of the world's largest economies are extremely negative about the intentions of the White House to introduce import duties.
Thus, the Minister of Economy of Germany, Brigitte Tsipris, said today that "in the event of a worsening situation, the EU is ready to respond appropriately, but our goal is to avoid a trade conflict". "Trade brings prosperity when it is based on exchange and interaction", she said. So far, the signals coming from the US are bothering me".
The EU intends to challenge the planned US introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum.
Investors are worried that the main US trading partners will retaliate and this will start the world trade war, which will negatively affect world economic growth. The EU has already announced the preparation of a package of measures worth 3.5 billion US dollars in respect of imports from the United States. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU.
The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said on Wednesday that it could be "very bad" for the global economy. "If the process grows, it will be very bad. If retaliatory measures are taken, the world economy will suffer a very strong blow", Philip Lowe said.
Meanwhile, the main US stock indexes are at the beginning of the European trading session in the negative territory after they collapsed at the opening of today's trading day after the resignation of Gary Cohn.
Today we expect a busy trading day.
After 13:15 to 13:30 (GMT), a block of important macro data from the US will be published, including the ADP report on employment in the private sector of the US economy (for February), foreign trade balance (January), inflation indicator of costs per unit labor force and labor productivity outside the agricultural sector for the 4th quarter, at 13:30 the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision will be published.
The growing uncertainty in trade relations between Canada and the United States will help ensure that the Bank of Canada retains the key interest rate unchanged at 1.25%.
We would like to remind you that volatility in this period will rise sharply, and this must be taken into account when making trading decisions.

Support levels: 2672.0, 2630.0, 2590.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2680.0. Stop-Loss 2735.0. Objectives 2670.0, 2630.0, 2600.0, 2590.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2735.0. Stop-Loss 2680.0. Objectives 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Positive dynamics persists
12/03/2018
Current dynamics
Published last week with the results of the dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT), showed a slight decline in world prices for dairy products (-0,6%). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. Nevertheless, the New Zealand dollar is the most successful of all other currency-competitors traded against the US dollar in recent days.
Investors continue to assess the impact of the decision of the White House on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum on international trade relations. Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, rose in response to this decision. Economists believe that the decision to impose import duties will positively affect the US economy. At least, the main US stock indexes are growing again, and the NASDAQ100 index updated its absolute maximum on Friday, and on Monday the NASDAQ100 futures are again trading higher, near the 7130.0 mark. Traditionally, it is believed that economic growth is accompanied by an increase in demand for primary commodities. The share of the United States in world GDP is estimated at 16-20%. Accordingly, the growth of the world's largest economy assumes a growing demand for commodities. The current weakening of the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices, which also positively affects the quotations of commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.
Wednesday (21:45 GMT) is expected to publish data on New Zealand's GDP for the 4th quarter (latest release). It is expected that GDP grew by 0.8% in Q4 (against + 0.6% in Q3), implying an annual GDP growth of about 2.5% -3.0%. This is strong enough data. If the data is confirmed, the New Zealand currency will strengthen, including in the NZD / USD.
On Tuesday at 21:45 (GMT) data on the balance of payments of New Zealand will be published.
Reducing the current account deficit in the balance of payments of New Zealand (expected to reach $ 2.40 billion from NZ $ 4.68 billion) will support the New Zealand currency. In the absence of important news in the economic calendar, flat and low trading volumes are expected in the foreign exchange market today. However, it is worth paying attention to the speech (at 23:45 GMT) of the deputy head of the RBNZ Grant Spencer. If he touches on the RBNZ monetary policy, then the volatility of the New Zealand dollar trades will go up. Rigid rhetoric of his speech on inflation and the likelihood of tightening monetary policy will cause the New Zealand dollar to grow.


Support levels: 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7290. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165
Buy Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7290. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Bank of Canada concerned about talks over NAFTA
13/03/2018
Current dynamics
As you know, last week the Bank of Canada retained its key rate at the previous level of 1.25%, referring to the growing uncertainty of the prospects for negotiations on the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). The USA is Canada's largest trading partner. Protectionist measures on the part of the US cause concern among all US trade partners, including in the leadership of Canada and its central bank. Recent US rhetoric increases the likelihood of a negative outcome of the NAFTA negotiations. As you know, the USA introduced 25% of the duty on the import of steel and 10% of the duty on the import of aluminum to the USA from all countries, except Canada and Mexico, the US partners for NAFTA. Import tariffs come into force 15 days after last Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed an order to impose duties. For Canada and Mexico, there is a 30-day delay. If the participating countries (the USA, Canada, Mexico) manage to agree on new conditions for the extension of NAFTA, steel and aluminum tariffs for Canada and Mexico will not be introduced. Otherwise, Trump promised to leave NAFTA.
The US share in Canada's exports is about 75%, which is 20% of Canada's gross domestic product.
The economy of Canada lost 88,000 jobs in January. In addition, the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, published earlier this month, pointed out that companies' investments could significantly slow down this year.
Last Wednesday, when the meeting was held, the Bank of Canada said that economic prospects are expected to justify higher interest rates over time. However, it is possible that instead of tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, some monetary easing will be required. This will become especially important if there are difficulties in the mutual trade relations between Canada and the United States. Any disruptions in trade flows between these two countries can have big consequences for the Canadian economy.
Many investors expect that this year the Fed will raise rates four times, rather than three, as the central bank's leaders planned at a meeting in December. If the Federal Reserve receives signals about the intention to speed up the tightening of the policy, it will support the dollar.
While the Fed plans to further tighten monetary policy, the failure of other major world central banks to normalize monetary policy will help strengthen the US dollar.
Today, investors will pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz, which will begin at 14:30 (GMT). The soft rhetoric of his speech on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, as well as the concerns voiced by Poloz about US protectionist actions and the prospects for NAFTA, will further lower the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.

Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop-Loss 1.2870. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2870. Stop-Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the current situation can be described as flat
14/03/2018
Current dynamics
The Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Ministry recently made another forecast, according to which, the production of shale oil in the country in April will increase by 131,000 barrels a day to a record level of 6.95 million barrels per day.
The rapid growth in the production of shale oil in the US reduces OPEC's efforts to stabilize the level of demand and supply of oil and maintain world oil prices. As you know, the OPEC agreement on the reduction of oil production by about 1.8 million barrels per day was signed in 2016 and will continue until the end of 2018.
In the opinion of the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the president of OPEC at the present time, "reducing the cartel's production has prevented chaos in the oil market". And this, to a large extent, is true. But the increase in oil prices began, mainly, from June 2017, when OPEC confirmed the extension of the contract to reduce oil production before the end of 2018. Moreover, Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said at a press conference in Riyadh in February that Saudi Arabia is ready to take additional measures in this direction. "We believe that it is better for us to take redundant steps (to reduce supply) and ensure the restoration of the balance of the market", said Khaled Al-Falih.
Meanwhile, in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), disagreements arose over the necessary level of oil prices.
Saudi Arabia is aiming for prices around $ 70 per barrel or higher, while Iran would like prices to be around $ 60 per barrel. According to Iran, prices in the levels of $70 per barrel will provoke oil companies in the US to increase production even more rapidly, which will cause a collapse in prices.
There is a certain share of truth in this. For example, US Deputy Energy Minister Dan Brulett said recently that US oil production this year may show "phenomenal" growth, making oil rally almost impossible.
Participants in the oil market are waiting for OPEC's monthly reports, which will be released this week.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week. However, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 4.3 million barrels, which could push up oil prices.
And today the attention of traders will be riveted to the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on data on oil reserves in the US, which will be published at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks in the US increased by 2,023 million barrels last week. If the data is confirmed, oil quotes may decrease.
Meanwhile, the second week Brent crude oil is trading near the level of 65.00 dollars per barrel. It seems that the oil market lacks drivers for either resuming growth, or for further, deeper, lowering. Thus, the current situation can be described as flat.

Support levels: 64.80, 64.00, 63.00, 61.80, 60.50, 56.50
Resistance levels: 65.40, 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00, 70.75

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 63.80. Stop-Loss 65.70. Take-Profit 63.00, 61.80, 60.50, 56.50
Buy Stop 65.70. Stop-Loss 63.80. Take-Profit 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: inflation in the Eurozone is still low to change the parameters of the QE program
15/03/2018
Current dynamics
Speaking on Wednesday at the conference, ECB President Mario Draghi again drew the attention of investors to low inflation in the Eurozone, as well as to the increased risks for the European economy in connection with the prospect of a new trade war with the United States. "Among the risk factors for the outlook for inflation are new US trade measures, the strengthening of the euro. We will adhere to the order that is outlined in our leading indications, namely, our promise to maintain interest rates at current levels for a long time after the completion of net purchases (bonds)", Draghi said.
Thus, on the part of the ECB leadership, the ECB's commitment to a soft monetary policy is again and again being confirmed. Interest rates will not increase "for a long period of time", Draghi said last week, when the ECB's regular meeting on monetary policy was held.
In response to Mario Draghi's declarations, the euro is falling against the dollar, but the deeper decline of the euro is constrained by its growth in crosses against other currencies, primarily commodity ones.
Friday (10:00 GMT) is expected to publish important inflationary indicators for the Eurozone, including labor costs (in the fourth quarter), consumer price indices for February. According to these data, consumer inflation in the Eurozone remains low. It is expected that the consumer price index in February rose by 0.2% (against the decline of -0.9% in January) and by 1.2% in annual terms. However, the publication of these data, despite their importance, will most likely provoke a weak market reaction, since this is a later release, and the data is already included in the prices. Volatility may increase in case of deviation from the forecast values.
Investors are beginning to prepare for a meeting of the Fed, which will be held next week (March 20-21). It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25%. Market participants will carefully study the text of the Fed's accompanying statement on this decision in order to understand the prospects for monetary policy.
Until the end of this week, EUR / USD is likely to remain positive, staying in the zone above support levels 1.2330 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

Support and resistance levels
EUR / USD remains positive dynamics, trading above support levels of 1.2330, 1.2310. Long positions are relevant. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 1.2348 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), EUR / USD will go to the lower border of the range formed between the levels 1.2550 and 1.2200 (Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the EUR / USD drop from 1.3900 in the last wave of decline since May 2014).
The breakdown of support level 1.2200 (50% Fibonacci level) will significantly worsen the outlook for EUR / USD and provoke a decline to support level 1.2100 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, while EUR / USD is trading above support levels 1.1870 (200-period moving average on the daily chart), 1.1790 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), a long-term bullish trend persists.

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: the index completes the week in a negative territory
16/03/2018
Current dynamics
On Thursday, the US stock index Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 24873.00 points. Nevertheless, the DJIA seems to be wrapping up this week and the first half of the month in negative territory. DIJA remains in the bullish long-term trend; however, the positive momentum of further growth is dying out more and more.
Investors continue to assess the impact of the protectionist trade measures of the Donald Trump administration, and also expect additional signals from the Federal Reserve regarding a more rapid increase in interest rates in the United States.
After earlier in March, US President Donald Trump signed a decree on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, representatives of the world's largest economies protested against US protectionist actions. The EU has already prepared a package of countermeasures against American goods. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU. Now the White House is exploring the possibility of implementing a package of initiatives aimed against China, including duties on the import of certain goods.
However, China is the largest holder of US government bonds and stock assets. If China, in response to the US protectionist actions, begins to massively get rid of them, then this may cause a new wave of sales on the US stock market.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.824% from 2.815% on Wednesday, staying close to the psychologically important level of 3.000%. The increase in bond yields in early 2018 was one of the reasons for the decline in world stock markets. Profitability can grow even more on the background of the normalization of monetary policy and the further strengthening of the world economy. If their profitability exceeds the mark of 3.000%, it will sharply increase the degree of anxiety and lead to another wave of sales of stock assets, according to many economists.
Investors are still cautious after the sharp sales observed in early February.
Now investors are preparing for the Fed meeting, which will be held next week (March 20-21). It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25%. Market participants will carefully study the text of the Fed's accompanying statement on this decision in order to understand the prospects for monetary policy. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018 and 2 increases in 2019. If the Federal Reserve signals to the Fed's determination to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace, the outlook for the US stock market will deteriorate significantly.

Support levels: 24650.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 25050.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 25070.0. Stop-Loss 24600.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 25750.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24600.0. Stop-Loss 25070.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: The dollar is rising before the Fed meeting
19/03/2018
Current dynamics
While the dollar is strengthening in the foreign exchange market, and market participants are preparing for the Fed meeting, which will be held on March 20-21, gold prices are down, today is the fifth week in a row. The growth of the dollar makes gold and other commodities traded for the US currency, less attractive to holders of other currencies.
As expected, the Fed will raise the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points, to 1.50% -1.75%. Earlier in December, Fed executives planned 3 interest rate increases in 2018, and 2 increases in 2019. At the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support the previously planned plans to tighten monetary policy amid the fast-growing US economy.
So, the macro data published on Friday confirmed the growth of industrial production in the USA. The index of industrial production in February was + 1.1% (the forecast was + 0.3%, the previous value was -0.3%). At the same time, the consumer confidence index rose to 102.0 in March (the forecast was 99.3 and 99.7 - the previous value), a maximum of almost 14 years.
It is likely that at the March meeting, the Fed will also raise its forecast for economic growth for the next two years. The expected increase in budget spending in the US, as well as stimulation of the economy due to lower taxes on the activities of US corporations against the backdrop of low unemployment will contribute to the growth of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, can force the Fed to accelerate the pace of normalizing monetary policy.
Investors are trying to understand whether the Fed will raise interest rates 4 times, whereas the Fed previously talked about 3 interest rate increases in 2018. At higher interest rates, gold is difficult to compete with assets that generate interest income, for example, with treasury bonds. Basically, economists expect that a further increase in the interest rate in the US this year will put pressure on gold. However, the decline in gold prices will be restrained by its purchases from retail buyers and also by some investors using gold to hedge the risks of growth in consumer prices amid the expected increase in inflation.
The drop in gold prices will also be hampered by political and economic uncertainty in the world, as many investors prefer to invest in reliable assets during periods of instability in the markets. Another reshuffle in the administration of the White House, as well as the introduction of duties on imports of steel and aluminum in the US, which provoked fears of unleashing trade wars, increase the demand for protective assets, such as gold.
For today, important news in the economic calendar is not planned, and, apparently, the positive dynamics of the dollar will remain, and the pair XAU / USD will remain under pressure, until Wednesday. At 18:00 (GMT) on Wednesday, the Fed's interest rate decision will be published and the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell will begin, and the comments of the Fed on the decision and prospects of monetary policy in the US will be published.

Support levels: 1308.00, 1303.00, 1294.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1324.00, 1330.00, 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1307.00. Stop-Loss 1316.00. Take-Profit 1303.00, 1294.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
Buy Stop 1316.00. Stop-Loss 1307.00. Take-Profit 1324.00, 1330.00, 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: on the eve of the Fed and the RBNZ meetings
20/03/2018
Current dynamics
On the eve of the Fed meeting and the publication of an interest rate decision on Wednesday, the US dollar is rising against commodity currencies, including against the New Zealand dollar.
Most market participants expect that the Fed will announce the first interest rate increase in 2018, as well as give slightly more positive predictions about the growth of the US economy in the next 2 years. The forecast of economists for 2018 envisages US GDP growth of 2.7%, as well as a decrease in unemployment to 3.9% by the middle of the year and 3.8% by December.
At the same time, many market participants will look for signals in the Federal Reserve's statement regarding the possibility of accelerating rates of rate hikes this year in order to prevent overheating of the economy. The Fed's inclination towards more aggressive policy tightening may support the dollar, as raising borrowing costs in the US makes the dollar more attractive to investors.
If the Fed leaves its forecast for 3 rate increases this year, the US dollar may fall, as the probability that rates will be raised this year 3 times is already taken into account in the dollar quotes.
On the same day, when the decision of the Federal Reserve on the rates will be published, the RBNZ meeting on monetary policy in New Zealand will conclude. The RBNZ decision on the rates will be published on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT).
As expected, the interest rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. The New Zealand currency remains robust against the US dollar, despite the threat of a trade war between China and the United States, the largest trade and economic partners of New Zealand.
According to the data released last week, New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.6% in the fourth quarter (+ 2.9% in annual terms). This is quite strong data, indicating a stable state of the New Zealand economy, which remains one of the fastest growing in the world. Nevertheless, the RBNZ is unlikely to go on to tighten monetary policy, economists expect, until mid-2019.
If, however, the accompanying statement of the RBNZ, which will also be published on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT), contain signals on the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future, then the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar, even in spite of The Fed's plans to tighten monetary policy in the US.
From the news for today we are waiting for the data with the results of the milk auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT), which will be published after 13:00 (GMT).
The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. If the data points to another decline in world prices for dairy products, primarily for milk powder, the New Zealand dollar will decrease. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.6%) against the previous values of -0.5%, + 5.9%, + 4.9%, +2.2 % and + 0.4%.

Support levels: 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: investors took a pause
21/03/2018
Current dynamics
The second trading day, the main US indices are traded in a narrow range. Traders paused before the decision of the Fed on rates, which will be published today at 18:00 (GMT).
Virtually all market participants believe that interest rates will be increased. As expected, the Fed will raise the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points, to 1.50% -1.75%. According to the CME Group, the probability of an increase is estimated at 95%, and this decision is already included in the price.
Greater interest for investors will be presented by a press conference of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, which will start at 18:30 (GMT). Investors will seek in his comments signals for the possibility of faster monetary tightening. The steady rise in inflation and the growth of the US economy forced some investors to put in price 4 rate hikes this year. If Powell confirms this probability, the dollar will rise sharply, and US stock indices will decline.
The Fed's fresh economic forecasts will also be of interest, according to which the Fed may slightly raise forecasts of US GDP growth for 2019 and 2020. Tax reform in the US can provide support to the economy for at least a few years. These are the factors in favor of the growth of stock indices.
Meanwhile, investors are also monitoring the situation around the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, which will begin to operate in the US since Friday. On Thursday, the administration of the US president is expected to announce new foreign trade measures directed against China, including duties of $ 30 billion. This will again remind of the possibility of unleashing new world trade wars.
Also on the agenda of the US Congress is the question of the adoption of a bill on the financing of the government in the amount of $ 1.3 trillion, in order to avoid the third for the year 2018 a partial cessation of work of state institutions. The decision on this issue should be made by the end of the trading day on Friday.
On Thursday, investors' attention will also be directed to the meeting of the Bank of England, which will address the question of the interest rate in the UK.
Thus, volatility on global financial markets will be high until the end of this trading week.
Support levels: 2650.0, 2630.0, 2605.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2738.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2690.0. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2630.0, 2605.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2690.0. Objectives 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: investors analyze the results of the last meeting of the Fed
22/03/2018
Current dynamics
The decision of the Fed to increase the interest rate by 0.25%, and adhere to the previously planned plan for further tightening of monetary policy, was negatively welcomed by investors, which caused a decline in both the dollar and the major US stock indexes.
If dollar buyers were disappointed that the Fed did not directly state the probability of 4 rate increases this year, then the stock market participants are disappointed that the Fed has confirmed the direction of its monetary policy for its further tightening.
Seven of the fifteen participants in the last meeting of the Fed still expect at least four increases this year.
The Fed revised its GDP growth forecasts up by 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2019 against earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. The Fed also expects that unemployment, which remained at 4.1% in October, will fall to 3.8% this year against 3.9% in the December forecast.
With the opening of today's trading day, the major US indices are declining.
Investors analyze the comments of the Fed, the dynamics of the monetary policy of the world's central banks and the prospects for increasing tensions in trade.
Investors believe that the Fed's confidence in the US economy and its restrained tone, ultimately, should positively affect the stock market. However, the prospect of further intensifying trade tensions could put pressure on stock indices.
Later on Thursday, the White House will announce a series of restrictive measures directed against China, including import duties on Chinese goods with a total value of at least $ 30 billion.
Donald Trump previously repeatedly pointed to the inadmissibility of a huge deficit in the US trade balance in trade with China.
As you know, the US foreign trade deficit in January amounted to a record $ 56.6 billion. And the introduction of import duties in the US should contribute, on the one hand, to increasing the competitiveness of national producers, and on the other hand, indirectly contribute to reducing the deficit of the foreign trade balance.
At the same time, in the long run, world trade wars do not contribute to the growth of the world economy and stock markets.
Today (at 12:00 GMT) the decision on monetary policy should be announced by the Bank of England. Investors will wait for hints of possible actions on the tightening of monetary policy in May.
Volatility in this period of time will grow throughout the financial market, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.

Support levels: 24146.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24650.0, 24970.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 24850.0. Stop-Loss 24400.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 25750.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24400.0. Stop-Loss 24850.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: the mood in the markets remains negative
23/03/2018
Current dynamics
The newly exacerbated threat of the emergence of world trade wars provoked another decline in world stock markets. So, the US DJIA index lost 2.9% on Thursday, which was its worst one-day percentage drop since February 8, the S&P500 fell 2.6% and lost all growth this year, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index lost 3.4%, while the Shenzhen Composite dropped 4.3%.
European indices are also under pressure. For example, the European EuroSTOXX50 opened today's trading day with a gap down after yesterday's sharp decline of 2.1%.
In Europe, the decline was led by the core resources sector. Shares of the steel company Outokumpu Oyj fell 4.8%. The decline in government bond yields led to a pullback in the banking sector.
So the world stock indexes reacted to the new restrictive actions of Washington. Restrictive measures were taken by China. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on the introduction of charges for the import of goods of Chinese production for a total of $ 60 billion. The restriction also concerns the access of Chinese business to American technologies.
Previously, the US imposed import duties on steel and aluminum at 25% and 10%, respectively. Today these duties have come into force.
Protectionist actions of the White House cause sharp criticism from the leaders of the world community. So, Japan's trade minister Hiroshige Seko said today that "This measure is extremely unfortunate". "If we respond to the steps taken by the United States by a series of retaliatory measures, this could indeed lead to the collapse of the free trade system", Seko added.
South Korea, the EU, Australia and some other countries, including those belonging to the NAFTA (Canada and Mexico), are temporarily exempted from these duties.
The US action was a response from China, which announced the introduction of duties on goods from the US, and alarmed markets in Asia. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce today announced that it will return duties on imports of American goods, including pork and processed aluminum, in the amount of $ 3 billion. On Friday, the Nikkei Stock Average closed with a decline of 4.5%, and the yen asylum currency rose against the dollar to its highs since 2016. Stock indexes of South Korea, China and Hong Kong decreased by more than 3%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 2.8%. Earlier, the EU also announced the introduction of restrictive measures to import a number of American goods. In response, Trump threatened to introduce import duties on European cars.
Negative news will continue to rock the markets.
Today, traders will be focused on the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of important macro data on the US and Canada, which will increase the volatility of trading in financial markets.
However, investors will evaluate US protectionist actions against their trading partners. It is likely that in the foreseeable future, the mood in the markets is likely to be negative.

Support levels: 2630.0, 2605.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2650.0, 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2615.0. Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2605.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2660.0. Stop-Loss 2615.0. Objectives 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: investors are concerned about recent decisions of the White House
26/03/2018
Current dynamics
Due to increased tension in trade relations between China and the United States, the demand for protective assets, in particular gold, has risen sharply. March gold futures on COMEX on the basis of trading rose in price by 1.7%, to 1349.30 dollars per troy ounce, which was the most significant one-day growth since February 14.
Fears that the protectionist trade policy of the US and China will provoke trade wars caused a large-scale decline in the dollar, world stock indices and supported the quotes of gold. Another surge in the volatility of trades in this non-ferrous metal was caused by the US decision to impose restrictive measures against China. Among these measures - import duties on supplies from China worth $ 60 billion, restrictions on the acquisition of American companies and the transfer of technologies to China.
This was stated on Thursday by US President Donald Trump, who intends to reduce the US trade deficit with China to $ 100 billion from the current record level. "Our trade deficit with China, according to various estimates, ranges from $ 375 billion to $ 504 billion. We have a situation with a colossal theft of intellectual property, corresponding to the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars", Trump said before signing the memorandum.
China reacted negatively to this decision of the White House. "The US actions do not meet the interests of the Chinese side, or the interests of the American side, or the interests of the whole world, becoming a bad precedent. In any case, the Chinese side will not be indifferent to seeing how its legitimate interests are damaged, we are fully prepared to defend our interests in a resolute manner", the Ministry of Commerce of China said in a statement.
Investors are extremely concerned about the threat of the emergence of world trade wars. Previously, the US announced the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, and first of all, it will affect Japan and China, the largest suppliers of these products in the US. Japanese Commerce Minister Hiroshige Seko said last week that "this measure is extremely unfortunate". "If we respond to the steps taken by the United States by a series of retaliatory measures, this could indeed lead to the collapse of the free trade system", Seko added.
Under normal conditions, monetary tightening strengthens the dollar and leads to a decrease in gold quotations. At the March meeting, the Fed raised its forecast for economic growth for the next two years and left its intention to raise the rate this year two more times. Basically, economists expect that a further increase in the interest rate in the US this year will put pressure on gold.
But, despite the Fed's decision to stick to its plan to tighten monetary policy, the dollar is getting cheaper, and gold is rising in price, as geopolitical risks related to the prospect of new trade wars are coming to the fore.
With the opening of today's trading day, gold is traded in a narrow range. On the one hand, the dollar continues to become cheaper today, which positively affects gold quotes. On the other hand, today there is an increase in the main US stock indices, which reached important support levels on the eve, which indicates the resumption of purchases of risky assets of the US stock market. Against this background, gold, usually, becomes cheaper.
If the dollar starts to recover when the positive dynamics on the US stock market resume, then the XAU / USD will start to decline again.

Support levels: 1341.00, 1328.00, 1326.00, 1307.00, 1297.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
Resistance levels: 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trade Scenarios
Sell Stop 1340.00. Stop-Loss 1351.00. Take-Profit 1328.00, 1326.00, 1307.00, 1297.00
Buy Stop 1351.00. Stop-loss 1340.00. Take-Profit 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: investors monitor the negotiations of representatives of the United States and China
27/03/2018
Current dynamics
As you know, last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a number of measures aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with China by $ 100 billion from the current record level. "Our trade deficit with China, according to various estimates, ranges from $ 375 billion to $ 504 billion. We have a situation with a colossal theft of intellectual property, corresponding to the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars", Trump said before signing the memorandum.
China reacted negatively to this decision of the White House. "The US actions do not meet the interests of the Chinese side, or the interests of the American side, or the interests of the whole world, becoming a bad precedent. In any case, the Chinese side will not be indifferent to seeing how its legitimate interests are damaged, we are fully prepared to defend our interests in a resolute manner", the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.
The increased threat of the beginning of world trade wars, provoked by US protectionist actions, contributed to a sharp drop in world stock indices.
Investors also sold the dollar, moving funds into defensive assets, such as the franc, yen, gold.
On Tuesday, the dollar and major US stock indexes are rising. The optimism of investors is fueled by reports that high-ranking representatives of the United States and China are negotiating to resolve the recent contradictions in the trade relations between the two countries.
The chief economic adviser to the Chairman of the People's Republic of China, Liu He, met with representatives of American companies and other representatives of the business community, counting on the resumption of the dialogue. Chairman of the State Council of China Li Keqiang on Monday evening reaffirmed Beijing's readiness to continue negotiations with the US in order to resolve the contradictions in trade and reach a mutually beneficial result.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8% on Monday to 24200.00 points, the S&P 500 grew 2.7% to 2660.00 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.3% to 7220.00 points. On Tuesday, the recovery of indices continues.
If China and the US come to an agreement that suits both sides, then the recovery of the indices will continue. Otherwise, the stock markets are waiting for another collapse. Trade wars have not brought long-term benefits to anyone, although, in the short term, a party that introduces protectionist measures can gain advantages in trade.
For today, the economic calendar is empty. The dynamics in financial markets is currently determined by the situation in the US trade relations with their largest trade and economic partners.

Support levels: 24146.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24425.0, 24800.0, 25000.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 24500.0. Stop-Loss 24270.0. Take-Profit 24800.0, 25000.0, 25750.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24270.0. Stop-Loss 24500.0. Take-Profit 24146.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: price growth may soon resume
28/03/2018
Current dynamics
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) data, which was published Tuesday night, US oil inventories rose 5.3 million barrels last week. The reserves of gasoline decreased by 5.8 million barrels, and the reserves of distillates decreased by 2.2 million barrels.
Investors drew attention to the growth of oil reserves, and its quotes decreased.
Today Brent crude oil is trading in a narrow range near the $ 69.00 per barrel mark, pending the publication at 14:30 (GMT) of official data from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products in the US. Some analysts of the oil market expect an increase in commercial oil reserves in the US, by 1.4 million barrels in the week of March 17-23.
Other analysts expect the stock to decline by 0.287 million barrels. Given the data previously provided by the American Petroleum Institute (API), it is likely that stocks have grown.
While OPEC is making efforts to reduce oil production, the US successfully took advantage of the situation and increased oil production, including shale oil. As you know, the OPEC agreement on the reduction of oil production by about 1.8 million barrels per day was signed in 2016 and will continue until the end of 2018.
And now, as it became known from media reports last week, OPEC intends next year to continue joint efforts to reduce the supply of oil.
Another positive factor for oil prices and the argument for further price growth may be the prospect of the US withdrawing from the international agreement on the Iranian nuclear program concluded in 2015.
Iran is the largest supplier of oil, possessing about 10% of all the world's proven oil reserves. And if sanctions are imposed on Iran again, the country will not be able to supply oil to the world market, which inevitably entails a decrease in the world supply of oil and, consequently, a rise in prices for it.
Even despite the growth of oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand for it in this case.
As the UAE energy minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the OPEC president at the present time, said last month that OPEC is "more concerned about the supply shortage than its surplus".
There is a high probability that the oil price rally may soon resume.

Support levels: 69.00, 68.00, 66.70, 63.00, 61.60, 60.00, 57.00
Resistance levels: 70.00, 70.75

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 68.50. Stop-Loss 69.60. Take-Profit 68.00, 66.70, 63.00, 61.60
Buy Stop 69.60. Stop-Loss 68.50. Take-Profit 70.00, 70.75, 76.00

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: market participants are likely to prefer the US dollar on the eve of a long weekend
29/03/2018
Current dynamics
"Economic prospects have strengthened in recent months", Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week. "Some factors confirm that the prospects for fiscal policy are becoming more stimulating, the continuing growth of jobs contributes to income and trust, foreign growth has been on a strong trajectory and the financial conditions as a whole remain mild".
The dollar demonstrates a large-scale strengthening, which is caused by the successful advancement of negotiations between high-ranking representatives of the United States and China regarding trade relations between the two countries, expectations of further tightening of monetary policy in the US, and also by the continuing of receiving positive macro data from the US.
So, on Wednesday the US Commerce Department published data according to which GDP in the 4th quarter was better than forecast and rose by 2.9% (the previous release indicated GDP growth of 2.5%, and the forecast was + 2.7%). .
The report, published on Wednesday, also pointed to an increase in consumer spending in the 4th quarter, while investment by companies remained high. At the same time, investments in fixed assets of non-residents increased by 6.8% per annum. The growth leader was equipment costs, which grew by 11.6%.
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rafael Bostic said on Wednesday that inflation is growing faster than some common indicators indicate, which gives the US central bank the opportunity to continue a gradual increase in interest rates.
On Thursday, the market is demonstrating the sluggish trading dynamics. Traders prefer not to open new positions before the long weekend in connection with the celebration of Catholic Easter.
It is likely that at the second half of the US session traders will also begin fixing long positions in the dollar, which will cause it to decline, unless, of course, the macro statistics published at 12:30 (GMT) on the US again surpass the market expectations and will not, therefore, support dollar. Among the data published at this time - indicators of personal income / expenditure, as well as the basic price index of personal consumption expenditure for February. The base price index is expected to grow by 1.6% (in annual terms) against + 1.5% in January. If the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast, the dollar will resume growth.
Weak indicators will have a negative impact on the dollar and may become a trigger for closing long positions in the dollar.
Also at 12:30 (GMT) will be published data on Canada's GDP for January. Probably, GDP will grow by 0.1%, as well as in December. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian currency will strengthen, including against the US dollar.
With all other unaccounted-for conditions, market participants are likely to prefer the US dollar on the eve of a long weekend. European stock exchanges will be closed from March 30 to April 2, although the work of the forex market will remain unchanged.

Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2828, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2917, 1.3000, 1.3100

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2890. Stop-Loss 1.2925. Take-Profit 1.2828, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700
Buy Stop 1.2925. Stop-Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3200