c6ackp
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No - I'm done this session - until 14:00 (after NFP) - do you trade gold at all? there always seems to be plenty of volatility there also...
TheBramble's Short-Term Spot FX Biases
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TheBramble
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Might be interested. What have you got for me?
c6ackp
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just futures, no physical - my medallion-man days are over 
seems to be huge support @ 1530, but I guess NFP could take care of that...
seems to be huge support @ 1530, but I guess NFP could take care of that...
TheBramble
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Yeah. Posted about that on the Squawk thread.
TheBramble
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Head for the beach....
TheBramble
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Timewarp....
barjon
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Brambs
I was interested in picking up on this bit at the time but got diverted, so sorry for backtracking. My question is whether there is a mechanical (set-up type) element to this or is it primarily a judgement call?
For my main retracement stuff ( a step beyond "pullback" for definition purposes) I've found my judgement no better than a mechanical trigger but I can't escape from the feeling that it should be
cheers
jon
TheBramble
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Not mechanical as in an indicator based strategy if that's what you mean.
Some time ago I posted about LL & LH (and HL & HH); put that together with any trend and you can assess fairly easily when it's a pullback and when it's a bit more than that. Doesn't always mean it's a reversal if it exceeds priors, but if it does, you’ll want to see it exceed to the downside again (if your bias is Short) to confirm you’re still short.
Do I have anything to jog me out of my stupor when such a setup occurs? Yes, of course. But mostly not necessary, as I’m typically onto what’s most likely to occur and watching it and waiting for an entry event.
Some time ago I posted about LL & LH (and HL & HH); put that together with any trend and you can assess fairly easily when it's a pullback and when it's a bit more than that. Doesn't always mean it's a reversal if it exceeds priors, but if it does, you’ll want to see it exceed to the downside again (if your bias is Short) to confirm you’re still short.
Do I have anything to jog me out of my stupor when such a setup occurs? Yes, of course. But mostly not necessary, as I’m typically onto what’s most likely to occur and watching it and waiting for an entry event.
barjon
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No, I didn't mean indicator based (God forbid
). In mine the mechanical route, for example, is a buy order just above the high of previous bar. The judgement route is looking for momentum (subjective) - or supporting price action in lower tf - as it approaches this point to determine whether or not trade is taken.TheBramble
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In that case then, it's pretty much a judgement call. I'm not lining up against the prior bar's H/L or using any other prior price relationships as an entry point. In a down trend (for instance) I'll be looking for the pullback up to be slowing down and have already turned back down. A couple of bars down with clear momentum restored to the underlying short-term trend and I’m sold, quite literally.
As mentioned in the post to which you refer, I’m also basing my ‘expectations’ of potential reversal back to the underlying trend on more than one technical SR level providing the necessary brake on the reversal at a specific level so it’s not just the price action, it’s the ‘understanding’ others will also be doing exactly what I’m doing for the same reasons which provides the self-fulfilling ‘credibility’ of these levels, but I’ll also do so with an eye to the institutions who trade large and who have customer order flow in front of them as well as research data that is likely somewhat superior to mine, (just possibly) knowing that I (and 100,000s of others) probably will be doing what we think we’re about to do, which is why I don’t react on the bar of the ‘apparent’ reversal to the underlying, but only with the follow through.
That said, you can get an idea I don’t pull anywhere near 100% of the run, and tops and bottoms are things I save for my spare time, but I do get an awful lot of successful middle thirds or thereabouts. The amount of any given slope I’ve taken on each trade doesn’t look much at the end of the day when I see what piece I had out of each move, but then I look at the W:L and the P&L and I normally feel a little better about that.
As mentioned in the post to which you refer, I’m also basing my ‘expectations’ of potential reversal back to the underlying trend on more than one technical SR level providing the necessary brake on the reversal at a specific level so it’s not just the price action, it’s the ‘understanding’ others will also be doing exactly what I’m doing for the same reasons which provides the self-fulfilling ‘credibility’ of these levels, but I’ll also do so with an eye to the institutions who trade large and who have customer order flow in front of them as well as research data that is likely somewhat superior to mine, (just possibly) knowing that I (and 100,000s of others) probably will be doing what we think we’re about to do, which is why I don’t react on the bar of the ‘apparent’ reversal to the underlying, but only with the follow through.
That said, you can get an idea I don’t pull anywhere near 100% of the run, and tops and bottoms are things I save for my spare time, but I do get an awful lot of successful middle thirds or thereabouts. The amount of any given slope I’ve taken on each trade doesn’t look much at the end of the day when I see what piece I had out of each move, but then I look at the W:L and the P&L and I normally feel a little better about that.
barjon
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Thanks, Brambs
We're probably looking for different chunks of the trend - taking your down trend example, I'm looking primarily for the chunk between the "end" of an upward retracement to the previous low where that retracement started. To make that viable I need a decent retracement - beyond a minor pullback - and I can't afford to wait too long to see downward momentum restored if there's to be enough in the trade set against the initial risk.
We're probably looking for different chunks of the trend - taking your down trend example, I'm looking primarily for the chunk between the "end" of an upward retracement to the previous low where that retracement started. To make that viable I need a decent retracement - beyond a minor pullback - and I can't afford to wait too long to see downward momentum restored if there's to be enough in the trade set against the initial risk.
TheBramble
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So I'm likely getting in later than you but staying in later too.
Whereas you take the risk on getting in ‘too early’ (in the reversal hasn’t finished or if indeed, it’s a change of trend), I’m taking the risk of staying in too long when that prior low (where you’re getting out) doesn’t get breached, reverses again and I exit from a less profitable position higher up.
Something for everyone.
I’m equally sure there are those that combine our approaches and take risk up front and in the end game. And there’s nothing wrong with that. All we’re talking about is where you want to be on the Risk:Reward spectrum and that I am convinced is more a matter of personal psychology than optimising P&L.
I’ve done a number of exercises where I’ve modelled my trading methods at various points on along that spectrum and apart from my distrust of historical profiling, even when I can show a higher average P&L by taking a trade slightly earlier/later and allowing more/less to be taken out of the unrealised and getting out earlier/later – it still didn’t ‘work’ for me on a personal level when I’m trading it. I guess there’s a ‘fit’ that a trader needs to get comfortable with. Of course, there’s a very real need to be constantly challenging your take and adjusting your methods and testing their validity, but overall, the ultimate success or failure of any individual’s trading enterprise is one of their personal ‘fit’ with their methods.
Whereas you take the risk on getting in ‘too early’ (in the reversal hasn’t finished or if indeed, it’s a change of trend), I’m taking the risk of staying in too long when that prior low (where you’re getting out) doesn’t get breached, reverses again and I exit from a less profitable position higher up.
Something for everyone.
I’m equally sure there are those that combine our approaches and take risk up front and in the end game. And there’s nothing wrong with that. All we’re talking about is where you want to be on the Risk:Reward spectrum and that I am convinced is more a matter of personal psychology than optimising P&L.
I’ve done a number of exercises where I’ve modelled my trading methods at various points on along that spectrum and apart from my distrust of historical profiling, even when I can show a higher average P&L by taking a trade slightly earlier/later and allowing more/less to be taken out of the unrealised and getting out earlier/later – it still didn’t ‘work’ for me on a personal level when I’m trading it. I guess there’s a ‘fit’ that a trader needs to get comfortable with. Of course, there’s a very real need to be constantly challenging your take and adjusting your methods and testing their validity, but overall, the ultimate success or failure of any individual’s trading enterprise is one of their personal ‘fit’ with their methods.
barjon
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I'm sure that's right, Brambs. You might remember that silly little Our Jack article I did a longish while ago which was about fitting your trading style to your personality and not the other way around - Our Jack
As you may have gathered there's a lot of me in that article, but I doubt I'm alone in finding it nigh impossible to change my personality to suit a particular trading style.
As you may have gathered there's a lot of me in that article, but I doubt I'm alone in finding it nigh impossible to change my personality to suit a particular trading style.
TheBramble
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Trust you to pump your article.
I bet you're on the One Show, Graham Norton and Jonathon Ross as well aren't you.
Bloody celebs....
I bet you're on the One Show, Graham Norton and Jonathon Ross as well aren't you.
Bloody celebs....
barjon
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- well it was pertinent to what you were saying wasn't it? You're our celeb, dear chap - 263,916 hanging on your every word 
NVP
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well if he was on GN....we've narrowed him down to the Chap on "Madmen" , Charline Theroux or Steve Coogan (last nights Show)
hmmm....tough one
N