Hi
Hi again. You must all know that the Human Society and indeed ALL HUMAN SOCIETIES are based on this - that all secondary services/ goods are build and based upon primary services/ resources.
So, if the economy eventually conks out. And that there is NO MORE REQUIREMENT for economic reasons to make money, there will not be any tertiary services/ goods like financial instruments ( insurance, banking, futures/ shares trading ). The depression would step in before the eventual backslip into tribal / feudal/ anarchaic system!
If everybody sees that everyone is making a living either by, 1) Pillaging, 2) Self-subsisting, 3) Communal Farming and 4) Barter-trading, then there is no survival for a national economy or even global economy so to speak!
So, if there is an uneventful outbreak of war in the Mid East, eg. IRAN attacking ISRAEL or in the Eurozone, RUSSIA attacking POLAND like what it did to its neighbour, GEORGIA, then the trading here in the UK ( also EU ) and US would be suspended!
Playing the indices is liken to playing a game where the MAIN THING BEING traded is really just numbers! But, on the actual picture of things,
1) small players are insignificant contributers ( other than if they group themselves ),
2) small groupings of shareholders ( eg. owners of companies or stock exchanges like STI, FTSE or KLSE ) are also quite insignificant themselves,
3) institutions like Goldman Sachs, Merril Lynch and others are also insignificant players ( IF they themselves are not able to have certain control over issues like fraud or certain factors like the controling RUSSIA's GAS/ OIL & the ever dwindling OIL SUPPLY in the mid east! ) by the truth that THEY themselves can go bankrupt any moment should the market go against them ( take a look at the subprime crisis in the US and also here in the UK property sector ),
4) governments themselves are victims - take a good look at the Northern Rock crisis here in the UK. Of course, the tax payers are made the evetual scapegoat! Any more banks going that direction of Northern Rock would send UK into Full BANKRUPTCY status!
5) brokerages, are themselves tight to the Tsunamis of Volitility as well that should there be a dynamic up/ down trend that would cause several bankruptcies ( of customers / clients ) or closure of accounts. They are not able to get back the moneys owed! How else to do, but to fold their business! I have seen these trading companies fold and change HQ ( lock, stock and keys/ quays ) several times in my trading years. Some people registering different companies in different names and location!
6) Regional conglomerates ( even governmental blocs like EC ) are no better themselves as they succumb to certain threats easily. Eg. RUSSIA threatening to cut the gas/ oil supply by saying ' Sanctions are counter productive ). This former Big Brother of the Soviet Union is holding EC by the neck really. As the saying goes, " The Tiger might be afraid of the Elephant, but certainly not the mouse!"
7) The actual trade persons on which the Futures/ market is based on, fare no better. Eg, Dwindling Oil supply in the Mid East - what can the Mid East governments do, except use the money earned from sales of their oil for reinvestments? Another eg, Farmers of coffee beans not being paid the necessary sums of moneys for sale of their produce leading to future reluctance for coffee crop planting!
So, it is best to be wise, to just catch the wave of the tide, like a Surfer and let it roll for a few ticks, like a Raider then let go and get the cash! Best policy for a volatile few hours or days! Be warned that market volatility can span into months even!
S K
Step 1, aka the promise:
Step 2, aka reality setting in:
