The Real Reason Most Traders Lose- The Real Odds of Winning at Trading:

: Thumbsup : [quote = Rossini ; 743084 ] Completamente Errado . Só PORQUE VOCÊ TEM Não uma disciplina necessaria n CORTAR OS perdedores Não Significa Que Não eu . [/ Quote]

Primeiro motivo da Perda É Que o comerciante Não SABE Exatamente Quanto Ele Quer , Não Onde SABE QUANDO e onde Sair , TP Para tanto quanto para Stop.
Dá então o próprio Mercado e te DEPOIS te toma . É Necessário ANTES DE ENTRAR NUMA Operação saber Até Onde ir PoDE e encerrar uma Operação e AO tempo Mesmo admitir Que SUA ESTÁ análise errada ..... pronto , resolvido ... abraços a todos! !

É isso não o que todos os comerciantes estão tentando fazer de qualquer maneira.
 
É isso não o que todos os comerciantes estão tentando fazer de qualquer maneira.

Real reason why people lose is their wishful thinking. If you know what you are doing and have the discipline to follow your ideas, you have a good chance of coming out ahead provided of course you started off with a reasonable "backpack" of knowledge. This knowledge is not hard to come by. There is a bibliography and free charting packages that are of excellent quality - for which we had to spend a fortune 15 years ago. The extra element that has to be provided by the "would be millionaires" is aptitude. Fx is not for everybody but even those not "talented" enough can learn to make money if they just go over the trades that are going wrong and examine the reasons why they were put in the market in the first place. If the reaoning seems to be doubtful, get out of it! But if one keeps HOPING that it will finally come right, then.. disaster is waiting for them. For the market may turn but not before blasting these wishful dreamers. A Simple matter of stop loss placement wether it is dollar-stop or "so many pips against me and I am wrong" type of self-assessment, can prevent A/C-busting. The idea is to survive to fight another day ! This is all the discipline one requires to make money in this business.
Lastly, Please AVOID the Psycho-books. They who can do. Failed traders and those who can not, write books, the worst of which are of the Psycho-variety. There are of course a number of books that are real good but the psycho-variety are not in this category. Re-engineering is NOT required if the engineering was done right in the first place. So, if your system is right, it will make money for you. If your system is wrong, no amount of psycho-stuff will work.
Wish you all Pips and Profits !
 
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Even if you end up losing 66% of the time, with the right strategy and psychology you will end up making a profit.
There are 3 possible outcomes: profit, loss or even.
Win loss ratio is an important element to consider in any strategy especially for new traders who might n ot be aware of the psychological impact of extended losing run.
 
Real reason why people lose is their wishful thinking. If you know what you are doing and have the discipline to follow your ideas, you have a good chance of coming out ahead provided of course you started off with a reasonable "backpack" of knowledge. This knowledge is not hard to come by. There is a bibliography and free charting packages that are of excellent quality - for which we had to spend a fortune 15 years ago. The extra element that has to be provided by the "would be millionaires" is aptitude. Fx is not for everybody but even those not "talented" enough can learn to make money if they just go over the trades that are going wrong and examine the reasons why they were put in the market in the first place. If the reaoning seems to be doubtful, get out of it! But if one keeps HOPING that it will finally come right, then.. disaster is waiting for them. For the market may turn but not before blasting these wishful dreamers. A Simple matter of stop loss placement wether it is dollar-stop or "so many pips against me and I am wrong" type of self-assessment, can prevent A/C-busting. The idea is to survive to fight another day ! This is all the discipline one requires to make money in this business.
Lastly, Please AVOID the Psycho-books. They who can do. Failed traders and those who can not, write books, the worst of which are of the Psycho-variety. There are of course a number of books that are real good but the psycho-variety are not in this category. Re-engineering is NOT required if the engineering was done right in the first place. So, if your system is right, it will make money for you. If your system is wrong, no amount of psycho-stuff will work.
Wish you all Pips and Profits !

I dont know why but I really like this post.
 
I hate it when people talk about placing bets it is not gambling.A trading system is like a blue print then if applied correctly you should make money in the long term.Also you trade correctly i think your biggest winner should be a lot bigger than your biggest losing trade.

There are a hundred diffrent ways to trade this market i personally like something that's simple almosy completely mecanical but most important of all able to capture those big moves.I think that capturing those big moves and making the most of it is essential.You have to find a way you can make money on the tecnical side of it if you like custom indicators that is simple and mecanical this involves a lot of searching and testing and then doing it all over again.

But the emotional aspect is far worse.You need discipline you need to learn how to control emotion like fear and greed and this is something nobody can teach you.Yes all the veterans can tell you these things but you need to learn this for yourself.

In short it's not easy but then it's not meant to be easy is it.Because few people has it better than a forex trader who has mastered the market.Spending a couple of hours in front of the pc and if you compound your profits ,watching your account keep growing until your stinking rich and being your own boss.

It's not easy but get with the program it's not supposed to be easy and failure on our part does not mean that the market itself is something akin to a casino.
 
I know this is an old post, but I can't help noticing the garbage that comes out of some people's mouths, and they have no idea what they are saying.
First of all, I'll admit, I have one of the strangest methodologies there is. But to say that mental stops are for losers? In another post you said you have 40% winners. That means you lose 60% of the time.
I don't use stops. I'm not condoning it for all traders, just making a point. 80% of my trades are winners.
Emotions have nothing to do with not putting a stop in place. I got ice in my veins, which helps in running trades with no stops.
A "proper" stop with me is no stop. That way I never get spiked out. Also (heh heh), it enables me to have 80% winners, not 40%.
BTW, again, I am not saying my way is right. It is the right way for me. I was only addressing a simple point. We all have to develop the trading system that is best for us as individuals.


Mental stops are for losers.
If you cannot find a good place to put a stop loss then its a bad trade.
Mental stops create a clause in your head that says 'I may hold this if its a loser, just on gut instinct'
Emotions during trading = Loss of capital

Whats the point in a mental stop if you can have a proper one???? It allows you to keep a loser. NICE
 
I did not like the use of the term "bet", either. The truth is that I am a client of spreadbetting company
and I think that quite a lot of us are, irrespective of some of the disparaging remarks made against them. Therefore, we might as well call a spade a spade.
 
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You made some good points that I like. Trading and gambling are 2 different things. I have never bought a lottery ticket in my life, but I sure place lots of trade on a weekly basis.
I've had one triple-digit loser this year, but I have a triple digit winners almost on a weekly basis, so I agree with that. It's time to find another job if I have triple-digit losers on a weekly basis.
My system is stictly mechanical. I do a Weekly Report of 28 pairs and gold, and then the pairs that are the hottest that week are the ones I focus on to trade that week. I enter according to my analysis at the beginnign of the week and exit accordingly.
The system is being mechanical abets the interest of keeping emotions out of play. I have a strict set of rules I play by, margin %, entries, exits, and ice in my veins also helps, cause I run all my trades with no stops. Understanding the mathematics of th markets has helped me in runnign trades without stops and gives me the confidence I need in excuting those trades.
The markets and casinos have nothing in common. Winnign in trading does take work. It takes working for nothing for a long period of time. It takes that dedication while even holding down your j-o-b. But, when you get to the point that trading is all you do for a living, you look back and can whole-heartedly say, "It was worth it!"

I hate it when people talk about placing bets it is not gambling.A trading system is like a blue print then if applied correctly you should make money in the long term.Also you trade correctly i think your biggest winner should be a lot bigger than your biggest losing trade.

There are a hundred diffrent ways to trade this market i personally like something that's simple almosy completely mecanical but most important of all able to capture those big moves.I think that capturing those big moves and making the most of it is essential.You have to find a way you can make money on the tecnical side of it if you like custom indicators that is simple and mecanical this involves a lot of searching and testing and then doing it all over again.

But the emotional aspect is far worse.You need discipline you need to learn how to control emotion like fear and greed and this is something nobody can teach you.Yes all the veterans can tell you these things but you need to learn this for yourself.

In short it's not easy but then it's not meant to be easy is it.Because few people has it better than a forex trader who has mastered the market.Spending a couple of hours in front of the pc and if you compound your profits ,watching your account keep growing until your stinking rich and being your own boss.

It's not easy but get with the program it's not supposed to be easy and failure on our part does not mean that the market itself is something akin to a casino.
 
Splitlink, I think spreadbetting is a misnomer that was created and gives trading and traders a bad name. It conjures up wrong thought processes. I beleive it even gives an excuse to lose. I'm not referring to spreadbetting itself, but the metaphorical term.
In that way, I'm glad I'm from the US and not the UK.
I got relatives in the UK, so I hope you take that last comment right.

I did not like the use of the term, either, bet, but the truth is that I am a client of spreadbetting company
and I think that quite a lot of us are, irrespective of some of the disparaging made against them. Therefore, we might as well call a spade a spade.
 
You could be right. There is a great deal of difference in the two terms. Certainly, one is more prestigious than the other. The internet is a great leveller. I would not like my neighbours to know me as "that gambler who bets, or plays the markets". Anonymously, it is quite different and I couldn't care less. Each country has its own vocabulary. Here in Spain, the common phrase is "play" the markets, which I don't much like, either.

Juliet:
"What's in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet."
 
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Why are "blue chips" known as "blue chips"?

Because the blue chips are the largest value chips in Monte Carlo...

However in the world of market speculation there are ways of taking a peek at the cards before placing your bets...:cool:
 
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Hello Fellow Traders,

I'd like to share this thought: The Real Reason Most Traders Lose- The Real Odds of Winning at Trading:

Did you ever wonder why you ALWAYS lose at trading?
Did you ever wonder why just about everyone loses at trading?

The reason for this is because the odds of winning at trading are horrible.

Let me illustrate this:

When you place a trade, there are 2 ways to lose and only 1 way to win.

Here is how you lose:

1) The trade is a loser from the start.
2) The trade is winning from the start but it comes back and then you lose.

Here is how you win:

1) The trade is a winner right out of the box- This is the ONLY way to win.


Therefore, since there are 2 ways to lose and 1 way to win, the odds are 66% that you will lose and 34% that you will win

Bad timing can make these odds even worse!

It is possible to win a bet if the odds are only 34% of winning; however, you are guaranteed to lose all of your money if you keep REPEATING this bet

That is why, in trading, it is always possible to make money but extremely difficult to KEEP the money.

The only way to overcome these odds is to find something that really works well; otherwise you are guaranteed to lose all of your money

Does anyone have a strategy that can overcome these odds?
I'd love to hear because I've been looking, on and off, for over 30 years and have not found one.

Best of Luck

MrSoul

The analogy doesn't make sense, the trade could be a looser from the start and then turn around and be a winner.

Probablity dictates that you are either a long term winner or looser, what most people don't get is how probablity actually works.

For example you see a trading "system" that bags 90% winners, that 90% doesn't mean anything if the SL is 500 pips and the TP is 5 pips.

I'd rather trade a 60% profit system that has a SL equal to the TP line.

The key to making money is adhering to sound money management and not blindly following a trading system. If price action is bouncing off a trend line then you know that you can get away with a tight stop loss.

Basically what I'm trying to say is there isn't really any system, the best traders are those who can read the market and react accordingly.

People consistently blame others for their trading flaws, if its not virtual dealer it's the lizard men. Wake up people.
 
I agree - you can cheat the numbers for a while & even be lucky and get away with it - but how do you know how to get out before the inevitable? And if it's inevitable then surely it will happen? As you infer, not having a stop will get you in the end. Bit like not wearing a seatbelt IMO. I must admit that I learnt the hard way about stops. But where do you put them? ...... that's another story and very important etc etc.....depends on your trading style and the size and material of which your balls are constituted.

I can answer that, stop loss goes 5 - 10 pips over the line for reversals or if you are trading a trend then the SL should be at the higher high or lower low of the previous day.

yup massive SL so you want to be trading tiny lots for big pip movements.
 
I think the statement misses the point - when I have lost money it is because:
1. The trading system sucks and doesn't work - but usually;
2. I've dithered or bottled it.
With stops and limits its 1:1 or better a good system tipping the odds in your favour.
 
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