The "no indicators" strategy?

[Pipinit]

Someone beat me to the punch. Probably because they had links in their post it looks like the post got deleted, but the point was still valid.

Technical indicators lag the market. They ALL lag the market.

Worse, because they lag the market, with preciously few exceptions, by the time your favorite indicator, or set of indicators gives you the green light to place a trade, the OVERWHELMING likelihood is that most of the best movement has already happened.

Basically, you're getting in LONG after the movement has already started.

The only way to get in BEFORE the movement has started is to understand what causes the market to move in the first place.

Instead of keeping you guessing, let me tell you what makes the market move.

1) News
2) Order activity by major institutions
3) Order activity by governments

And that's it.

The absolute BEST way to trade the major movements is by first understanding that those three things are the ONLY three things that make the market move enough to matter.

If you like, I will continue this post, explaining EXACTLY how to trade the major moves.

However, I'll only do it if some folks say that they're interested.

No sense in me spinning my wheels covering something if no one really wants to hear it.

So, if you want more, reply to this post and let me know. (edit: more is now added, see below)

edit: I'm also thinking about doing some live trading sessions where I show you LIVE how to trade this way. Anyone interested in that let me know also.

 

[mb325]

I want more!

 

[Pipinit]

Okay, you asked for more ... here you go.

Once you understand what moves the market, the next question becomes ... what information can I get that will readily tell me those three things?

Sadly (at least for free), there isn't any source that will tell you all three of those.

There is however a source that will give you one of them ... forexfactory.

You can go there and quickly see what "market moving" news is coming out and when.

What you then do FIRST is ...

WATCH

Take a look at the news for a couple of weeks. Notice what happens immediately following a release.

Which releases drive the market and which don't.

How much of a difference between the forecast and the actual does there need to be for the market to move hard and fast?

Spend two weeks doing that. Read the descriptions of the release, notice what it says about if the numbers are greater than the forecast if it's good or bad for the currency.

Become familiar with how the major pairs move in response to news coming out.

Then, spend two to four MORE weeks trading using a demo account.

Use forexfactory and refresh the page until you get the numbers the second they come out, then bounce over to metatrader, ninjatrader, or whatever you use and place your trade.

DO NOT use the above method with real money!!!!!!!!!

If there gets to be more interest in this thread I'll go into specific trading strategies AND how you make sure that your trades get executed ... AND how to get your news before most of the other schmucks do ...

AND how you can trade major movements using a real account with real money. (afterall, trading using a demo account won't help you much)

However, I'll want to see more interest in the thread than just the one guy.

Edit: and if you'd like me to do some live trading sessions (free) where I show you how this all works let me know as well.

 

[hawkmoon269]

Would be interested in this too. I've always suspected technical analysis is over-rated with regard to FX.

 

[pedro01]

If you need encouragement, then indeed, I'd like a peek up your skirt too...

 

[shadowninja]

Would be interested in this too. I've always suspected technical analysis is over-rated with regard to FX.

And the dangers of trading the news very under-rated by newbies...

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Basically, you're getting in LONG after the movement has already started.

what if I'm getting in SHORT ????? :whistling :whistling :whistling

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Would be interested in this too. I've always suspected technical analysis is over-rated with regard to FX.

aye Pad, well I've always suspected McGuiness of still being in the 'RA but apparently we can't be right all the time,

ya wee fenian pryck ye

 

[rathcoole_exile]

There is however a source that will give you one of them ... forexfactory.

you are a tube

 

[Pipinit]

the M2 System (no indicators strategy)

Okay, since I got a number of people interested, what I did was put together the entire system into a single document. That document is attached.

GIANT WORD OF CAUTION ... My language isn't "professional" or "clean".

I do use "adult" language in the PDF file. That's because I'm not here to sell you anything, just make my point and provide you a system that hopefully will work for you better than anything you've tried in the past.

If it works for you then great. If it doesn't, then hopefully you'll find something else here on the forum that will.

Either way, post your results and let us know how it worked out for you.

 

[Pipinit]

And the dangers of trading the news very under-rated by newbies...

I don't care what kind of trading it is ... a newbie that doesn't know what they are doing is going to get killed.

 

[Pipinit]

Important update!

I have posted the beginnings of the system here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-strategies-systems/75138-m2-system-no-indicators-strategy.html

There is still more that needs to be said on the subject as what I have there doesn't cover some much needed ground (such as how to get your orders executed).

However, I'll be expanding on the topic over the coming weeks. What I have there at least gets people going and understand the basic philosophy.

 

[Pipinit]

One thing I want to point out and it is VERY important.

I have not, thus far, provided enough information to trade M2 using real money.

There is still A LOT of ground to cover before you should even consider trading M2 on a live account.

I will be expanding on the system over time, but for now, please, really and truly, and with no joking around, M2 should only be tested using a demo account.

To give you an example of why this is, if you trade M2 on a demo account, and you tell metatrader to open an order, it doesn't matter what's going on with the market, the order gets opened.

a demo account doesn't get "requoted".

A real account however REGULARLY encounters this barrier to getting an order opened.

One of the things that I'll be explaining is how you get your orders opened WITHOUT worrying about the requote issue.

So, until I expand on the system, really truly and honestly you should trade M2 ONLY ON A DEMO ACCOUNT.

DO NOT TRADE M2 ON A LIVE ACCOUNT ... IF YOU DO YOU STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING MURDERED BY THE MARKET.

Once I expand the system, that will change. You will be able to trade M2 live.

What I have for you right now doesn't give you enough information to do that.

This "first cut" of M2 is only to lay the ground work, to show you what is possible and to get you to understand some initial concepts.

It also gives you enough that you can start to trade M2 on a demo account.

Consider yourself duly notified.

 

[Splitlink]

Someone beat me to the punch. Probably because they had links in their post it looks like the post got deleted, but the point was still valid.

Technical indicators lag the market. They ALL lag the market.

Worse, because they lag the market, with preciously few exceptions, by the time your favorite indicator, or set of indicators gives you the green light to place a trade, the OVERWHELMING likelihood is that most of the best movement has already happened.

Basically, you're getting in LONG after the movement has already started.

The only way to get in BEFORE the movement has started is to understand what causes the market to move in the first place.

Instead of keeping you guessing, let me tell you what makes the market move.

1) News
2) Order activity by major institutions
3) Order activity by governments

And that's it.

The absolute BEST way to trade the major movements is by first understanding that those three things are the ONLY three things that make the market move enough to matter.

If you like, I will continue this post, explaining EXACTLY how to trade the major moves.

However, I'll only do it if some folks say that they're interested.

No sense in me spinning my wheels covering something if no one really wants to hear it.

So, if you want more, reply to this post and let me know. (edit: more is now added, see below)

edit: I'm also thinking about doing some live trading sessions where I show you LIVE how to trade this way. Anyone interested in that let me know also.

I think that you should post more. A certain number of us have said, for years, that indicators are a waste of time but they do not go away! Even some of most instructive posters, who post their charts, do so with a couple of indicators at the bottom-

I've not had much success news following, though. Perhaps you could give us some examples of what government news is the most important? Some companies post their news at times that cannot be traded until the next day. That has happened to me a few times.

 

[pedro01]

So will this info be free or are you planning to hook people in & then claim that there is additional 'good stuff' that needs to be paid for ?

Serious question...

 

[shadowninja]

So will this info be free or are you planning to hook people in & then claim that there is additional 'good stuff' that needs to be paid for ?

Serious question...

freelivetrading.com is his website.

Hook, line and...

 

[hawkmoon269]

aye Pad, well I've always suspected McGuiness of still being in the 'RA but apparently we can't be right all the time,

ya wee fenian pryck ye

I know where you live.

 

[Pipinit]

I think that you should post more. A certain number of us have said, for years, that indicators are a waste of time but they do not go away! Even some of most instructive posters, who post their charts, do so with a couple of indicators at the bottom-

I've not had much success news following, though. Perhaps you could give us some examples of what government news is the most important? Some companies post their news at times that cannot be traded until the next day. That has happened to me a few times.

First, if you check out the M2 system post here on the strategies and systems board you will see that I go into quite a bit more detail.

As for getting news late ... forex is 24 hours a day, I don't understand how what you said can be the case.

As for important news releases ... that depends on the currency pair.

Non farm payrolls is a BIG one for the US.

 

[Pipinit]

freelivetrading.com is his website.

Hook, line and...

Have you actually BEEN to the site?

Does it look like the site of someone trying to sell something?

I'm giving the info away, giving away free live trading sessions.

Giving away the expanded information so that you can trade this thing on your own.

Incidentally ... 40 pips this morning trading the ADP NFP.

 

[shadowninja]

I don't care what kind of trading it is ... a newbie that doesn't know what they are doing is going to get killed.

And killed even quicker trading the news...