The high return demo portfolio number 2

[IlIlIlIlI]

After closing my old demo portfolio, I started a new one.

Following changes were made:

1) The filter was extended and/or changed.

2) I do not react immediately when a Darwin appears or disappers in the filter.

3) I might exclude a Darwin from buying when it appears in the filter as I did when I started it. This Darwin disappeared again a very few days later and did not appear again until now.

4) Position size might vary between the Darwins when the cash received after selling the old ones is more or less than the position size of the remaining positions.

With the old demo portfolio I reacterd like an EA immediately.
Now I do a small analysis of it and decide later whether to buy or sell it.
That's it.


The filter:

The one year backtest for the current composition:

The performance for the first month:

The current composition:

The complete trading history including partial closings:

The performnace fees paid or retained:

The management fees:

The profit is only on the open positions, the demo portfolio lost money on the closed positions until now.

The composition is stable in the filter since about three weeks.

We'll see whether this portfolio just started with a successful month or whether it will show profit for a longer period.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

One killed performance of all

Sold completely

To get enough money for a new position, also the other Darwins had to be partially sold.


Bought:

Results:

 

[CavaliereVerde]

One killed performance of all

This is the problem with diversification, or better diworsification.
You have to assume that 95% of the return that you see is due to luck.

 

[trilobite]

The explosive needle set fire to the haystack

 

[DeLorenzoFund]

That Darwin experienced a 30% drawdown in just 4 days, ouch!

Not sure if the trader's strategy is to either average down on losing trades or take high probability trades using a very large stop loss and aiming to get pennies of profit on it. It could also be a change of behavior from the trader where he suddenly increased his trade size.

It looks like the underlying strategy suffered a 60% drawdown. The track record is only 8 months long, what got you to select this Darwin for your portfolio?

By giving a quick look at the strategy vs the AUDCAD that he trades it seems to me that his strategy is based on averaging down and hoping for a rebound, which at some point we all know those strategies fail when there is not a rebound.

Here is a comparison of his open trades and exposure vs the recent chart of AUDCAD matched on the same dates. it looks like his system averages down on those pullbacks, on the last one the volatility was too high and AUDCAD keeps dropping, at that point he had a total of 49 open trades in the same asset.

I know I'm a nerd when it comes to this stuff 😄but I got curious as to what could have caused this massive and sudden drawdown,

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

YFBL was sold because
a) it disappeared from the filter (it was sold when it was absent in the filter permanently for a couple of days)
b) the chart was adding more red bars than ever before

The money was transferred to all other open position which currently all show profit: