The FTSE 2006

[FetteredChinos]

indeed...

but more from a seasonal perspective... next week is usually bullish..

so even if it ends up being a "down" week, any downside should be somewhat limited...

FC

 

[apples10]

Closed my shorts earlier and looking to reshort if we come back of the lows. Anyone seeing this as a dip to buy?

Always a good read first thing in the morning:
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/market/stockindices.asp

The March Future's low is below the previous support at 85, therefore I'm looking to short any rally into the US opening.

However, medium term trend still in place, so this is only a short-term pull-back and I'll only hold position for short-term (today) and will have tight stop of 10 points.


rgds

 

[downbytheriver7]

The March Future's low is below the previous support at 85, therefore I'm looking to short any rally into the US opening.

However, medium term trend still in place, so this is only a short-term pull-back and I'll only hold position for short-term (today) and will have tight stop of 10 points.


rgds

umm.. i reshorted again and are looking to close them into a possible first hour low when the US markets open..then would be tempted for a possiblly long for a quick trade..

although i might just leave the DAX/CAC shorts on..

 

[kriesau]

Times Online January 13, 2006

Warnings and worries send FTSE sliding

Britain's top stocks dropped, mirroring a nervousness on Wall Street. Food producers were on offer after warnings from two major supermarket suppliers. The FTSE 100 index closed down 24.1 at 5711.0, having slid to as low as 5690.0 in midmorning. For the week, the benchmark was down 0.3 per cent. Volume was decent for a Friday, with over 2.9 billion shares swapped by the close.

Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average held near unchanged at 10962, having lost 81points in the previous session. Concern about the earnings season was rekindled by negative guidance from Tyco International and Lucent, although a government report showing tamer-than-expected core December inflation offset that somewhat. The US Producer Price Index edged up 0.1 per cent once volatile food and energy prices were stripped out. That was half the gain expected by economists, and supported hopes that the Federal Reserve's cycle of interest-rate increases may slow. But higher fuel costs meant the overall rate jumped 0.9 percent, more than twice the Street's expectation.

Separately, December retail sales rose by a weaker-than-expected 0.7 per cent, and were just up 0.2 per cent excluding autos. Economists had expected increases of 0.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively.

 

[kriesau]

Stephen Whittaker very BULLISH on the FTSE for 2006

By: Laurence Fletcher, Deputy Funds Editor -- Friday 13 January 2006

New Star fund manager and joint chief investment officer Stephen Whittaker believes the Footsie still looks cheap and should finish the year between 6,000 and 6,500. Whittaker, who manages the £332.5 million New Star UK Growth fund and who is A-rated by Citywire for his good risk-adjusted performance, believes the FTSE 100 can extend its strong run to end the year well above the 6,000 mark.

He said: 'The market is looking cheaper than in the past decade or so, despite going up to 5,700. This year it's on 12.5 times earnings, which in absolute and relative terms looks fairly cheap. Most companies are meeting or beating expectations – it's over 90%, which is a pretty healthy position to be in. 'The UK deserves a higher rating as it's had a stable economy for some time. It's still trading near historic lows relative to gilts. 'By the end of 2006 I think the FTSE will be well over 6,000 – somewhere between 6,000 and 6,500. This would be the fourth year of double digit growth.

Whittaker, who took over New Star UK Growth in 2002 after being poached from Invesco Perpetual, picks out several factors as being supportive to the stockmarket.

'The high free cashflow yield – which is what's left over for distribution after capex, depreciation and servicing debt – is driving the market. 'A lot of bid money will return to the market in the first quarter, which is a point a lot of investors have not appreciated. The combination of share buybacks and M&A [merger and acquisition] activity is leading to the de-equitisation of the UK equity market.' 'Also, UK money supply is growing ahead of GDP, and this has to find an "earth". This has been bonds and property, but as these markets mature, the money should go to equities and I don't think we've seen that yet.'

Whittaker added that potential causes for concern, such as the high oil and house prices, did not unduly worry him.

'I'm not particularly worried about the oil price at these levels, as it's more likely to come down rather than go higher. The housing market is stable and unlikely to show any form of collapse, although I don't think there'll be much inflation there.'

Over the past 3 years New Star UK Growth has risen 95.82%, beating an average 66.17% gain among UK All Companies funds and a 66.44% rise in the FTSE All-Share index. Top 10 holdings are Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) at 4.15%, Barclays (BARC) 3.52%, BAE Systems (BA.), HBOS (HBOS), Sportingbet (SBT), Laing (LNGO), Lloyds TSB (LLOY), Corus Group (CS.), Barratt Developments (BDEV) & Rolls-Royce (RR.) at 2.06%

 

[Racer]

UK profit warnings up 23 pct in 2005 to four-year high - Ernst & Young
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Profit warnings from UK quoted companies rose 23 pct on the year in 2005, reaching their highest level in four years, according to a survey from accountants Ernst & Young.

There were a total of 381 profit warnings in the year to Dec 31 2005, up from 294 the previous year, and the highest annual total since 2001, E&Y said.

Andrew Wollaston, head of corporate restructuring at E&Y's London office, blamed weak consumer spending and slowing economic growth.

'The increase is due largely to the decline in consumer confidence during 2005 as a result of concerns over growing levels of debt and the slowing housing market, and because UK economic growth has halved to 1.6 pct, the lowest annual rate since 1993,' he said in a statement.

The worst-affected sectors in the final quarter of 2005 were support services with 16 warnings, followed by general retailers with nine, while engineering, insurance and computer services had seven each.

E&Y said retailers were likely to come under further pressure in the first quarter of 2006.

'The first quarter of 2006 is likely to see a similar warnings picture, possibly with a heavier bias toward retailers, in particular, the higher-end, clothing and electrical suppliers,' the company said.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 16th January 2006

Friday's results:
Open: 5735.
Close: 5711, down 24pts.
Range: 5690 - 5735.

Last 5 trading days: down 20pts.

On the month: up 93pts or 1.66%. Well behind my forecast, but I still have faith that the month, as a whole, will be well up.

Dow: 10,959, down 2pts.
High: 11,033
Low: 10,888

An abnormal swing of 145pts. This certainly was a day of bulls versus the bears with the market being kicked from one side of its opening to the other to end the day in a virtual draw, and I for one don't believe it's over. Expect this coming week to be just as entertaining.

Last 5 trading days: 0pts.

On the month: up 241pts or 2.27%

Both markets paused for a breath this week, and as such, there are two camps of thought from noted analysts: one side depicts a strong upward surge hereafter for the month and the other believes that the market will continue in a similar stagnated manner for the rest of the month. I'm for the former.

News items of note:

The Telegraph - 'The National Debtline, set up by the Government to assist people in financial trouble, is being overwhelmed by record numbers of callers who fear they could go bankrupt in the aftermath of Christmas. The advisory service says that two-thirds of calls in the past fortnight were not answered because of the unprecedented demand. It has received more than 12,000 inquiries since January 3, putting it on course for its busiest month since its foundation in 1987.'

Also - 'DSG International, the owner of the Dixons and PC World electricals chains, is this week expected to report a fall in sales over Christmas and unveil a 22 per cent slump in first half pre-tax profits.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday, two separate charts agreed that it could go either way. Monday's, a small rise.

Companies reporting:

No major companies reporting

Economic Data:

09:30 UK PPI (Core output year) Dec 1.3% - 1.5%

09:30 UK ODPM House Prices Nov 2.2%- 2.3%

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's turbulent day won't be adding any favours; charts say a small rise; the week ahead is exceptionaly buoyant; economic news will be interesting; I believe that the market's early afternoon spot will be the one to watch for its final direction.

Early gut feeling: a 75% chance of a rise.

Will I bet? Yes, I've already gone a small Long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

indeed...

but more from a seasonal perspective... next week is usually bullish..

so even if it ends up being a "down" week, any downside should be somewhat limited...

FC

Agree.

UK

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup, looks like turning into a nice trend day down..

i am likely to be buying the close today and holding for a week til next thursday on the eve of option expiry..

FC

called and made..

looking good thus far...

plus there is no real US activity today, so its unlikely that we will get a reversal at 2.30-3.00pm..


might have a +50 day perhaps?

FC

 

[Racer]

STAN up nearly 8% on bid rumours helping to push FTSE up

 

[ukhero]

called and made..

looking good thus far...

plus there is no real US activity today, so its unlikely that we will get a reversal at 2.30-3.00pm..


might have a +50 day perhaps?

FC

A 50pt+ would have been nice, but I guess, we'll have to settle with a 29pt rise. Perhaps the other 21pts may come tomorrow!

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 17th January 2006

Monday's results:
Open: 5711.
Close: 5740, up 29pts.
Range: 5707 - 5740.

Last 5 trading days: up 9pts. Still looking a touch weak over this period and I'm expecting a 50-80pt rise by the end of the week.

On the month: up 122pts or 2.17%. Well behind my forecast of 5-10%.

Fridays Dow:
10,959, down 2pts.
High: 11,033
Low: 10,888

Last 5 trading days: 0pts.

On the month: up 241pts or 2.27%

News items of note:

FT.com - 'Gilt yields fall after disappointing UK data. By Joanna Chung in London and David Turner in Tokyo. Gilts pushed higher and yields were lower on Monday in the wake of evidence that the UK manufacturing sector was struggling to pass on higher costs to customers.

The UK Office of National Statistics said producer input prices rose 0.9 per cent on the month for a 17.2 per cent increase year-on-year, the highest since 1991. But output prices fell a more than expected 0.2 per cent on the month.

James Knightley, analyst at ING Financial Markets, who expects further rate cuts from the Bank of England, said: "With profit margins continuing to be eroded, investment and labour demand is likely to remain weak."

He added: "This reinforces our expectations that unemployment will continue edging higher, keeping consumer sentiment low and ensuring that UK activity continues to come in below trend."

LONDON AP - 'Crude futures rose Monday after another attack on an oil platform in Nigeria and Iran warned that any sanctions imposed over the country's nuclear program could send oil prices even higher.

Brent crude for February delivery gained 77 cents to $63.03 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange, ahead of the contract's expiration Monday. Trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC said it had evacuated over 300 staffers and contractors from facilities in the Niger Delta. Heavily armed attackers damaged the Benisede oil platform in the Niger Delta and said some of its staff had been injured. The company also said it had begun evacuating personnel from some facilities in the region.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's stated a small rise and Tuesday's indicate the same.

Companies reporting:

Cairn Energy
John Laing
JD Sports
Northern Foods
Tesco
Thorntons
Also, twelve US companies reporting, including: IBM, Intel, Wells Faro and Yahoo.

Economic Data:

UK RICS Housing Market Survey for DEC

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW had a lie-in today so I'm expecting plenty of movement tomorrow that will effect the FTSE; a mixture of companies reporting in which I believe will be positive; charts say a similar day to Monday in regards to a rise. In all, the market should kick off buoyantly pausing for breath prior to the American markets opening. And if the DOW opens positive the FTSE may rise 25-40pts.

Areas to watch:
Gold.
Oil.
Iran.

Early gut feeling: a 65% chance of a rise.

Will I bet? Carrying over yesterdays Long, stop gap amended.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

excellent start

"LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European shares declined on Tuesday, as oil prices climbed back towards $65 a barrel and investors eyed some mixed corporate news."

Well covered all my shorts that I put on late yesterday across the DAX, CAC FTSE and SMI. Definately going with a sell the rallies strategy for now, and will look to short again any bounce back. FTSE 5700-5740 is looking more and more like resistance here, 5700 looks key today. Not about to buy the dip yet.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Anyone looking at long N225 here? Sorry couldn't find a the Nikkei board, is there one?

 

[ukhero]

Anyone looking at long N225 here? Sorry couldn't find a the Nikkei board, is there one?

I don't think there's a Nikkei board. You could start one?

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

ouch!

Afterhours not looking positive - IBM INTC and Oil are all going to act as a big drag tommorrow. Remaining short for now.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 18th January 2006

Tuesday's results:
Open: 5740.
Close: 5699, down 41pts.
Range: 5695 - 5740.

Last 5 trading days: up 11pts.

On the month: up 81pts or 1.44%.

Tuesday's Dow:
10,896, down 63pts.
High: 10,957
Low: 10,875

Last 5 trading days: down 114pts.

On the month: up 178pts or 1.66%

News items of note:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'World oil prices surged nearly 4 percent on Tuesday after militants said they would broaden attacks on Nigeria's oil industry, threatening to cut deeper into supplies from the world's eighth-biggest exporter.

U.S. crude rose $2.39, or 3.7 percent, to $66.31 a barrel -- the highest since early October.' - and as a result the markets panicked! How much global Oil does Nigeria provide? A little under 3 percent!

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's indicated a small rise. Wednesday's charts are undecided but err towards a drop.

Companies reporting:

Burren Energy
DSG International
Logicacmg
Rio Tinto
Sabmiller
Weir
Woolworths

Economic Data:

09:30 UK Unemployment for Dec and UK Average Earnings for Nov.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: well I said it would be an interesting week, but I didn't expect an Oil wild card to be thrown onto the table; the DOW reacted as did all the markets, and the million dollar question is, 'will the markets rally tomorrow?' As it stands, I'm doubtful. A mixed bag of companies reporting which I believe will be positive; charts are unclear but favour a drop. Look to the early morning news for additional clues.

Areas to watch:
Oil.
Oil related companies.
Anything with the word 'Oil' in it!

Early gut feeling: it can go either way. There will be bargain hunters out tomorrow and this may gave a false reading early morning as to which way the markets are heading.

Will I bet? My FTSE Long ended when my stop gap kicked in, likewise with my Mar Long for the Nikkei and Dax. Looking to join the party again.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

5636 low this am

My first target on the short side...

Job done for me! Covering here for the moment.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Impressive reversal! possibly looking to short again on the approach to 5700

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 19th January 2006

Wednesday's results:
Open: 5699.
Close: 5663, down 35pts.
Range: 5634 - 5699.

Last 5 trading days: down 68pts.

On the month: up 45pts or 0.8%.

Wednesdays DOW:
10,854, down 41pts.
My Internet service provider has a problem. Web sites and their data are limited.

Last 5 trading days: ?

On the month: up ?

News items of note:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday as a burst of disappointing earnings from Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC - news) and Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO - news) fueled concern that U.S. corporate profit growth may be faltering. Also pressuring the broad market were energy shares, with Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM - news) shedding 1.7 percent to $60.50 on the New York Stock Exchange amid escalating threats against oil producers in Nigeria.'

FT.com - 'London’s equities market was sharply lower on Wednesday after panic selling forced Tokyo markets to close early, US markets fell on weak earnings news from the technology sector and drugmaker AstraZeneca was hit by a court ruling.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's erred towards a drop. Thursday's charts are conflicting between a neutral and a moderate rise.

Companies reporting:

Enterprise Inns
Kesa
St James placeVendanta
BB&T Corp

Economic Data:

UK British Chamber of Commerce Q1/Q4

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data:[/B ]the markets are still tumbling on the Oil situation, but the end of the rainbow is close at hand. Either tomorrow or Friday the markets should pick up; charts are conflicting, and it must be noted that they don't take into account the Oil wild card; economic news and company results are tame; watch the Nikkei for clues as to the markets direction.

Areas to watch:
Oil.
Oil related companies.
Anything with the word 'Oil' in it!
The Nikkei

Early gut feeling: none.

Will I bet? Still looking to join the party. I will be watching the Nikkei early morning for any signs of a possible rally.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK